2026 Growth Assumptions and Limits

In this episode of Valley of Depth, we sit down with Jack Kuhr, Payload Pro’s Research Director, to unpack what SpaceX has become on the eve of what could be the largest IPO in history. What began as a launch company has evolved into a vertically integrated platform spanning launch, satellites, global connectivity, and potentially AI and compute in space.This is the first in a series of conversations where we’ll regularly update our audience on the latest developments shaping SpaceX and its impact on the broader space economy.

We discuss:

• How Starlink has overtaken launch as SpaceX’s primary growth engine
• Why Starlink’s constraints are more likely terminals, regulation, and physics—not satellites
• How international markets are powering the next phase of Starlink’s expansion
• Why aviation and maritime are the most underappreciated Starlink verticals
• Whether Starlink “Lite” can meaningfully take share from traditional ISPs
• How Starship and Starlink V3 could upend Falcon 9 economics
• Why the SpaceX–xAI merger points to a fully integrated space, connectivity, and AI stack

• Chapters •

00:00 - Intro
01:09 - Jack's role at Payload and what is it
04:06 - Jack's revenue model for SpaceX
08:06 - Launch and Starlink
09:23 - Is SpaceX privatizing launch or is there less demand?
12:07 - Starlink's current revenue runway trajectory
14:31 - 2026 projects and potential growth pains
16:41 - Starlink constraints
19:00 - US vs international customers
19:53 - Starlink terminal sales
21:10 - What is currently under appreciated about Starlink's verticals?
22:52 - Starlink Light
24:34 - Competition from GEO broadband providers
33:07 - Starship
34:45 - When will Starlink launch their first commercial, non Starlink payloads
38:22 - Is SpaceX serious about space based data centers?
42:06 - SpaceX x Tesla x xAI

• Show notes •

Payload Pro’s website — https://pro.payloadspace.com/
Jack’s socials — https://x.com/JackKuhr
Mo's socials — https://x.com/itsmoislam
Payload’s socials — https://twitter.com/payloadspace / https://www.linkedin.com/company/payloadspace
Ignition’s socials — https://twitter.com/ignitionnuclear / 
https://www.linkedin.com/company/ignition-nuclear/
Tectonic’s socials — https://twitter.com/tectonicdefense / https://www.linkedin.com/company/tectonicdefense/
Valley of Depth archive — Listen: https://pod.payloadspace.com/
 

• About us •

Valley of Depth is a podcast about the technologies that matter — and the people building them. Brought to you by Arkaea Media, the team behind Payload (space), Ignition (nuclear energy), and Tectonic (defense tech), this show goes beyond headlines and hype. We talk to founders, investors, government officials, and military leaders shaping the future of national security and deep tech. From breakthrough science to strategic policy, we dive into the high-stakes decisions behind the world’s hardest technologies.

• Payload: www.payloadspace.com
• Tectonic: www.tectonicdefense.com
• Ignition: www.ignition-news.com