Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang
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Mar 4, 2026 
Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception and macro-investment strategist, unpacks risks from a potential Iran energy shock and how its duration could reshape markets. He outlines a possible manufacturing recovery and inventory rebuild. He describes jobless growth driven by productivity gains and a summer peak of market euphoria possibly capped by a generational IPO.
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Jobless Growth Is Powering A Benign Macro Regime
- Tian Yang describes the 2026 macro as a benign jobless growth regime driven by productivity, corporate capex, and fiscal deficits rather than household spending.
- This keeps labor markets muted and offers policymakers room to remain dovish while growth holds up, but the improvement momentum was already slowing pre-crisis.
Duration Determines Iran Shock Severity
- Yang argues the Iran conflict's macro impact depends on duration: a short shock slightly delays easing, a prolonged one disproportionately hurts Europe and Asia as energy importers.
- The US is more insulated as an energy exporter with policy levers like SPR and LNG flexibility to blunt domestic impact.
Rotate By Fair Value Using Capital Cycle Signals
- Variant Perception's allocation engine rotates by comparing sector fair-value returns using capital cycle, crowding, and quality signals to tilt where earnings growth is underpriced.
- After energy's rally the model trimmed energy and rotated into healthcare while keeping tech and financials overweight.