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Tian Yang, CEO of quant research platform Variant Perception, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the benign macro regime might shift in the back half of 2026 should the Iran conflict not produce a prolonged shock. Yang also touches on how that roadmap would likely be altered by a prolonged conflict, the case for a manufacturing recovery, jobless growth, and peak market euphoria in the summer that could ultimately be marked by the generational IPO of SpaceX.
Variant Perception: https://www.variantperception.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Summer Peak Setup
00:54 Benign Macro Regime
02:54 Iran Energy Shock Risks
04:19 US Versus Rest World
06:41 War Duration Scenarios
10:08 Energy Rotation Signals
10:55 Allocation Engine Explained
13:04 CAIA.nxt
14:00 Fast Calls Repriced
18:44 Historical Cycle Analogies
24:08 Jobless Growth Framework
27:42 Shifting Investment Drivers
29:48 Fed Credibility Tightrope
34:35 Housing Disinflation Drivers
38:58 AI Jobs Debate
39:10 Valuation And Terminal Value
42:28 Capital Cycle Framework
46:31 Semis Versus Software
47:22 Regional Banks Inflection
50:06 Sovereignty Investing Thesis
56:20 Energy and Reindustrialization
59:26 Gold as Risk Off
01:01:20 Conclusion
