Top Traders Unplugged

SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver

89 snips
Apr 18, 2026
Guest
Rob Carver
Rob Carver, systematic futures trader and author who runs a trend-following strategy, reflects on a calm-looking market that may be fragile underneath. He discusses oil futures versus physical price dislocations. He explores why slow trend signals have led performance, why he is running lower risk, and practical tradeoffs around ETFs, portfolio construction, and return stacking.
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ANECDOTE

Rob's YTD Risk Light Positioning And Exposures

  • Rob describes his year-to-date: peaked ~9.5% in late Feb, gave back some in March/April, currently ~5.8% while running ~1/3 of target risk.
  • His largest exposures are long equities, some energies, and a sizable short in bonds to reflect mixed signals.
INSIGHT

Slow Trend Signals Drove Rob's Big Year

  • Over the April–April tax year Rob made ~23.7% in futures trading with two main profitable periods: late May–mid Oct and late Dec–early Jan.
  • He attributes the late Dec/Jan gains largely to the metals bubble, and notes most gains came from slow trend signals.
ADVICE

Prioritize Operational Details Over Alpha Claims

  • In CTA due diligence focus on operational details and marginal gains (slippage, cost estimation, market list) rather than claimed proprietary alpha.
  • Rob and Niels say small, consistent cost savings compound and reveal a manager’s professional quality.
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