SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Opening market backdrop and small talk
Niels and Rob catch up, note quiet markets and geopolitical tension while setting the conversation's framing.
Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop
04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing
10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension
13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles
17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results
20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown
25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed
27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers
31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing
43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction
52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities
01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies
01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
