SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Gold, historical context and forward-looking assumptions
They caution about sample-period bias, discuss gold's long-term expected returns, and why allocations should reflect that.
Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop
04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing
10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension
13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles
17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results
20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown
25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed
27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers
31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing
43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction
52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities
01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies
01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up
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