The Brink CIA Iran expert: This war will change global power
Mar 4, 2026
Norman Roule, former CIA officer and longtime Iran analyst, explains Tehran’s predictable drone and missile responses and why the Strait of Hormuz likely stays open. He outlines Iranian strategic incoherence, risks of fragmenting the country, and how intelligence cooperation with Israel shapes targeting. Short, sharp takes on Gulf security, limits of air power, and what a post-conflict Iran might look like.
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Campaign Is Proceeding As Intended
- The US-led campaign is unfolding largely as planned with overwhelming air and missile superiority.
- Norman Roule highlights the largest Middle East force since 2003 and an air/missile force capable of destroying any medium-sized military, producing predictable Iranian drone and missile responses.
Why Iran Won't Close The Strait Immediately
- Iran avoids closing the Strait of Hormuz initially to preserve exports and imports and to avoid turning GCC states fully against it.
- Roule explains Iranian strikes on energy are largely messaging attacks and that effective destruction (e.g., of Harag Island) would be catastrophic for Iran's revenue.
Strategic Incoherence Inside The Regime
- Iran shows tactical capability but strategic incoherence and costly failures across its security architecture.
- Roule cites billions wasted on nuclear programs that produced no energy and proxies that failed to defend Iran, and notes recent attacks turned GCC states against Tehran.