Why Iran Won't Close the Strait of Hormuz

In this episode of The Brink, we sit down with Norman Roule to unpack the unfolding war with Iran and the strategic thinking behind the campaign against the Islamic Republic.

We discuss how the military operation has unfolded so far, why Iran’s response has followed a predictable pattern of drones and ballistic missiles, and what the campaign reveals about the strengths and weaknesses of the Iranian regime. Norman explains why Tehran may avoid closing the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic miscalculations that may have shaped Iran’s early decisions, and how Gulf states are navigating a conflict happening on their doorstep.

The conversation also explores the broader geopolitical stakes. We examine the role of intelligence cooperation between the United States and Israel, the limits of air power in forcing regime change, and the difficult question of what a post-conflict Iran might look like. Could the regime collapse, or could the country descend into fragmentation and unrest?

Finally, we discuss the long-term implications for the Middle East, from the future of the Abraham Accords to the possibility of deeper security integration among Gulf states. This is a wide-ranging and sobering conversation about war, intelligence, and the uncertain path toward a more stable Middle East.

Watch the full uncut interview HERE: https://open.substack.com/pub/thebrinkpodcast/p/cia-iran-expert-this-war-will-change?r=63dafp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction

03:24 Inside the US Campaign Against Iran

05:42 Why Iran Won’t Close the Strait of Hormuz

08:00 Strategic Failures Inside the Iranian Regime

10:05 Why This Was the “Moment” to Act

11:54 The Courage of the Iranian People

15:00 Trump’s Strategy: Keep the Enemy Guessing

17:02 The Kurdish Question and Risks of Fragmenting Iran

19:28 Why Iranian Protests Haven’t Overthrown the Regime

22:09 Can Air Power Bring Down the Islamic Republic?

25:37 US–Israel Intelligence Cooperation Against Iran

30:32 The Gulf States’ Real Position on the War

35:33 Why the Gulf Feels Abandoned by the International Community

38:10 Europe, Trump and the Fracturing of the Western Alliance

40:00 Will the Abraham Accords Expand After This War?

42:12 How Defeating Iran’s Proxies Could Transform the Middle East

46:57 The Intelligence Case for War With Iran

49:40 Imminent Threats, Terrorism and the Logic of Military Action

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