Perpetual Traffic 5 Missed Forecasts. Then One Budget Shift. Then 4 Straight Hits.
Apr 14, 2026
A dramatic case study about five missed forecasts that led to a bold 91% Amazon spend cut and a big budget shift. They explain how bottom‑focused spending created a recycling loop and why multi‑touch attribution and incrementality testing matter. The conversation covers decoding misattributed direct traffic, high AOV implications, reallocating to top‑of‑funnel channels, and practical measurement and timing steps.
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High ROAS Can Mask Declining Growth
- Brands can report great in-platform ROAS while losing growth because bottom-funnel channels recycle existing demand.
- Ralph Burns: client had five missed forecasts and rising NCAC because Amazon/Google were capturing repeat or already-aware buyers, not creating demand.
Align On A Single North Star Metric
- Align on one North Star metric before reallocating spend and force decisions by tracking new customers (NCAC) separately from returning customers.
- Ralph: the client agreed to use new-customer acquisition cost as the guiding KPI and accept the revealed baseline.
Direct Traffic Often Means Top Of Funnel Worked
- Large ‘direct’ or unattributed revenue often hides top-of-funnel contribution from impressions and non-click channels.
- Scott DeGrosseilliers: direct GA4 sales usually came after prior awareness from meta, YouTube, native or CTV impressions.