Case study setup: five missed forecasts

Ralph describes a pet e‑commerce client with five missed forecasts and explains the performance problem.

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Episode notes

Are you scaling ad spend but getting worse results? If your ROAS looks amazing while your growth stalls, you might be optimizing for the wrong thing, and it’s costing you more than you think.

In this episode, I sit down with Scott Desgrosseilliers from Wicked Reports to break down one of the best case studies we’ve ever run at Tier 11. After five consecutive missed forecasts, we made a bold move and achieved incredible results.

We cut over 90% of Amazon spend and reallocated the budget to top-of-funnel channels. The result? Four straight quarters of growth, lower customer acquisition costs, and a massive increase in MER.

We show you how we used multi-touch attribution, incrementality testing, and creative strategy to drive real business outcomes. If you’ve ever questioned whether your “best” channels are holding you back, this case study will help rethink and optimize your ad budget allocation.

In This Episode:

- Case study: Five missed forecasts and rising CAC

- Meta’s recycling loop explained

- AOV and LTV of premium products

- Why Google’s nCAC is misleading

- Decoding direct traffic on Google

- Incrementality testing of Amazon and Google

- Results of cutting Amazon spend by 91%

- Analyzing the risks of budget reallocation

- Scaling the top funnel mix

- Wicked Reports breakdown

- Organic lift and MER from paid ads