Top Traders Unplugged

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

18 snips
Feb 11, 2026
Guest
Ian Harnett
Ian Harnett, co-founder and chief investment strategist with decades in markets and former Bank of England economist. He outlines a regime shift where bonds may stop hedging stocks. Talks about deglobalization and supply chains shortening. Discusses capital as a policy tool, dollar fragility around US political fractures, and winners like commodities and non-US value.
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INSIGHT

Europe Needs A Catalytic Crisis

  • Europe may need a crisis-level event to trigger a true capital markets union and a common safe asset.
  • Without that 'Munich moment' Europe risks remaining fragmented and dependent on external capital.
INSIGHT

America’s Tariff Bargaining Wins Capital

  • The U.S. is using tariff leverage and deals to attract capital, effectively paying for access to its market.
  • This 'neo-royalist' approach can sustain strong inbound capital flows and support U.S. markets.
ADVICE

Rotate Into Value And Commodities Early

  • Begin rotating into value, commodities, and emerging markets as early entry points for a multi-year shift.
  • Treat the rotation as a five-to-ten year process rather than a short tactical trade.
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