Dollar Outlook and Real Effective Adjustment

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar

00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer

01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change

04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking

06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export

09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem

12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset

14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”

18:32 - Trump-era economic ideology: the coalition, “333,” and running the economy hot

23:06 - The Fed under Warsh: rates, QT, balance sheet politics, and liquidity consequences

28:21 - Portfolio reality: slow rotation, hidden tech exposure, and where diversification breaks

41:22 - Gold, reserves, and the end of inflation targeting as a defining shift

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