GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios
Top Traders Unplugged
Credit, Nominal Growth, and Market Resilience
Ian stresses nominal GDP and cash flows as critical to avoid credit stress and sustain markets.
A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Ian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar
00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer
01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change
04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking
06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export
09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem
12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset
14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”
18:32 - Trump-era economic ideology: the coalition, “333,” and running the economy hot
23:06 - The Fed under Warsh: rates, QT, balance sheet politics, and liquidity consequences
28:21 - Portfolio reality: slow rotation, hidden tech exposure, and where diversification breaks
41:22 - Gold, reserves, and the end of inflation targeting as a defining shift
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
