Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast Is Meta’s AI spend a problem? Is 2026 Social Media’s “Big Tobacco” moment? And More —The 3 Big Questions for Meta | Behind the Numbers
Feb 9, 2026
Max Willens, principal analyst on social media and ad monetization, and Minda Smiley, senior analyst in social marketing, unpack Meta’s big questions. They debate the scale and investor reaction to Meta’s AI spending. They explore what a consumer AI agent should do and whether AR smart glasses are a plausible next bet. They also consider litigation, regulation, and the possibility of a public reckoning in 2026.
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AI Spend Is Massive But Backed By Profit
- Meta's AI CapEx has exploded to an estimated $115–$135 billion for 2026, representing rapid growth over recent years.
- Despite the scale, strong ad revenue and projected operating income make the spending defensible for now.
Profitability Softens AI Criticism
- Meta posts very strong profits, which weakens arguments that AI spending is reckless.
- Skeptics point to past big bets like Horizon Worlds that failed to deliver comparable ROI.
Reality Labs Pivot From VR To AR
- Meta is shifting Reality Labs from VR toward AR and smart glasses after heavy cumulative losses.
- The company has laid off VR staff and is betting on AR as a more viable near-term path.