Know Your Risk Podcast Markets Haven’t Reacted Yet
Apr 1, 2026
Chase Taylor, market analyst and recurring brain trust on macro, energy, and geopolitics. He and Zach dissect Middle East tensions, oil and dollar moves, and why markets may look through supply shocks. They weigh escalation risk, capital flow shifts, inflationary fallout, and why energy disruption could accelerate renewables and offshore investment.
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Market Will Likely Look Through Short De-Escalation
- Markets are likely to look through a short geopolitical flare-up if leaders signal de-escalation, not because fundamentals improved but because asset prices are driven by sentiment and central-bank era dynamics.
- Chase Taylor and Zach Abraham argue the current conflict may be short (weeks), giving markets an excuse to recover despite lasting economic and energy damage.
Stock Market Is Detached From Underlying Economy
- Equity valuations are detached from GDP and fundamentals; a large rally would push S&P to historically extreme market-cap-to-GDP multiples.
- Zach warns 20% equity drawdowns would translate to enormous real-wealth losses relative to the economy, highlighting systemic fragility.
UK And Australia Facing Real Fuel Shortages
- Zach recounts reports of fuel shortages in the UK and Australia to illustrate real-world impacts of the crisis on logistics and travel.
- He warns airlines may be unable to return planes from Australia due to lack of jet fuel shipments.