Sharp China with Bill Bishop

A deep dive into an indictment alleging diversion of high-end Nvidia servers and what it means for U.S. chip policy. A close look at China’s ambitious Xiong’an development and top leaders inspecting progress. Discussion of Beijing’s diplomatic balancing amid the Iran war and delayed U.S.-China talks. Quick hits on router bans, Apple-related tech news, and concerns about supply-chain enforcement.

They break down the timing and optics behind postponing a presidential visit to Beijing amid war in Iran. They unpack a new U.S. intelligence assessment on reunification intentions and recent U.S. weapons moves toward Taiwan. They note reports of military scientists vanishing from public profiles and the latest chatter around advanced AI chip shipments.

A deep dive into the OpenClaw craze in China, from runaway adoption and cottage industries to security and liability concerns. Discussion of how Tencent could benefit as regulators tighten control. Analysis of China-US tensions as Trump’s visit approaches, including Iran, THAAD parts relocation, and Strait of Hormuz dynamics. Quick takeaways from the Two Sessions on budgeting, PLA personnel notes, and possible BYD F1 moves.

Discussion of the Iran strikes and how they change China’s strategic position, shipping security, and Taiwan calculations. A preview of China’s Two Sessions priorities like GDP targets and defense spending. Coverage of AI drama at Alibaba, delays around DeepSeek, and worries about model distillation. A UK spying scandal and a quirky Spider-Man China censorship anecdote.

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the reports that the PRC is threatening to scuttle Trump’s visit to Beijing over a second arms package from the U.S. to Taiwan, including thoughts on next moves from the U.S., how this arms shipment happened, and the PLA’s dangerous aerial maneuvers around Taiwan. From there: Reactions to the news that Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in Hong Kong prison, a State Council white paper on “One Country, Two Systems,” and Sanae Takaichi’s party secures a supermajority in Japan three months after the PRC’s pressure campaign over her Taiwan comments. At the end: The propaganda value of AI models, and a word about hockey and the Winter Olympics. Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Jimmy Lai sentenced; Xi on Sci-tech self-reliance; Japan elections; US-China; Nanjing Museum case; AI propaganda — Sinocism Xi’s Beijing inspection; Li on rare earths; Hong Kong white paper; Taiwan Affairs Work Conference; PBoC report — Sinocism China warns US arms sales to Taiwan could threaten Trump visit in April — Financial Times China steps up dangerous air encounters near Taiwan — Financial Times China critic and former media tycoon Jimmy Lai is sentenced to 20 years in a Hong Kong security case — AP Exclusive | China rallies neighbours against Japan in rare meeting. Will it work? — SCMP UK, UN and EU deplore ‘monumental injustice’ of Jimmy Lai’s 20-year jail sentence — The Guardian Japan’s Leader Wins in a Landslide, Clearing Way for Hard-Line Agenda — New York Times How Japan’s Leader Rescued Her Party from the Abyss — New York Times Tokens of AI Bias — China Media Project Chinese artificial intelligence distorts perceptions — Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Activist father of U.S. Olympian Alysa Liu targeted by Chinese spy ring — AP Who is Alysa Liu, Team USA’s alt-girl figure skater who just won an Olympic gold medal? — Yahoo! Sports

A deep dive into the recent shakeup at the top of China’s military and the swirl of rumors and theories around it. Discussion of world leaders rushing to Beijing and the optics of high-profile visits. Coverage of Xi’s push to internationalize the RMB and related financial ambitions. Rapid unpacking of a surprise Trump-Xi phone call, Taiwan arms tensions, Panama’s port ruling, and supply-chain moves around critical minerals.

A fast-moving discussion of top PLA figures being investigated for corruption and why the timing shocked observers. They explore Xi’s broader military purges and how corruption charges are used for political control. The conversation also probes rumors linking senior officers to foreign actors and considers what the shakeup could mean for Taiwan and regional messaging.

A new strategic partnership between China and Canada raises eyebrows, as concerns about weak Western unity surface. Mark Carney's comments on a 'new world order' spark debate, alongside discussions on reciprocal trade and the implications for industries. The UK and EU are also contemplating shifts, with notable political figures heading to Beijing. Additionally, rumors of purges within the PLA intensify, while Nvidia faces accusations of manipulating public opinion against chip legislation. The intertwining of domestic politics and international strategies creates a complex narrative.

The podcast dives into the instability in Iran and the implications of Trump's tariff threats on trade relations with China. Discussions include how these tariffs could impact China's oil access and investments. The conversation shifts to Canada's Prime Minister visiting Beijing, seeking new export markets. Additionally, the popularity of the 'Are You Dead?' app and updates on Chinese drone policies add to the intrigue, highlighting the ever-evolving landscape of US-China relations.

The podcast dives into China's unexpected reaction to Nicolás Maduro's arrest in Venezuela, exploring the geopolitical implications and propaganda opportunities. The hosts discuss China's tightening export controls affecting Japan’s rare earth access, raising questions about future standoffs. They also look at reports of a pause on H200 chip purchases by PRC companies to protect domestic interests. A fascinating segment highlights how the CCP is evolving its recruitment strategies, utilizing influencers to spread its narratives subtly.