Lead-Lag Live

Are you ready for some high-level financial wizardry that demystifies complex concepts like global liquidity, present and past economic indicators, and future market predictions? We have with us Michael Howell, a seasoned market researcher, who illuminates us with his three decades worth of knowledge on these intricate financial dynamics. We promise to take you on a journey from understanding the pivotal roles of the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China to the intricacies of market vs. funding liquidity, and why it doesn't always reflect the real economy's health.Let's delve deeper into some international finance politics involving China's economy and the U.S.'s strategic moves in adding pressure in the currency market. We also touch upon the Shanghai Accord of 2016 designed to moderate a strong US dollar and its impacts on the Chinese Yuan. Grab your notepads as we unravel the concept of 'pristine capital' and the continuing value of US Treasury bonds as a prized collateral in banking and insurance, even amidst global financial turbulence.As we approach the end, we cast our lenses on potential upheavals, such as a US Treasury market downgrade and a duration crisis mutating into a credit crisis. We shed light on the 'Mothra effect,' Japan's impact on complex systems, and how oil affects liquidity and the market. We leave no stone unturned, discussing ever-present topics such as the increasing interest bill on US debt and the future of yield curve control. Join us as we wrap up with Michael's future predictions, the potential impact of the US elections, and potential market interruptions. Get ready to have your financial acumen leveled up!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Ever wonder what it's like to dive headfirst into the turbulent world of trading during a pandemic? Today, we're talking with Greg Duncan, a seasoned trader and business degree holder who did just that. When COVID struck, Greg took the plunge and learned invaluable life lessons about structure, discipline, and the madness surrounding meme stocks.Drawing parallels from his athletic background, Greg shares how the principles of confidence and consistency from sports can shape a successful trader. He'll take us through his journey of exploring the market, the importance of irrational confidence, and the gamified landscape of modern investing. Plus, get ready to delve into the minutiae of technical analysis, the art of options trading, and the paramount role of risk management.But that's not all. Greg reveals how he harnesses the power of social media to bolster his trading skills and his watch list of promising stocks. He believes in the importance of stepping outside one's comfort zone for personal growth and offers words of wisdom for new traders venturing into the market. So, strap in and join us for this exhilarating ride into the world of trading with Greg Duncan!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Join us on a journey through the intricate labyrinth of oil market dynamics in a post-COVID world, with our guest, the esteemed historian Ellen Wald. With her deep-rooted insights into the history of oil companies' operations in the Middle East, we dissect the current supply and demand scenario, elucidating Saudi Arabia's decision to prolong their voluntary oil production cut. We'll also scrutinize the likelihood of a supply crunch in the coming seasons and the illuminations it may cast on China's recovery.We take a turn into the realm of critical minerals, rare earths, and turbids, with China's dominance over their supply chain as our central plot. Uncover the layers of environmental and human rights violations linked to mining these minerals as we explore alternative sources and potential partnerships that may tilt the balance in favor of American interests. Be prepared for a revelation on South America's vast lithium and cobalt resources and the urgent need for stronger alliances in our neighborhood. Ending our discourse on a note of introspection, we scrutinize the impact of American policies on the supply of critical minerals and oil. The implications of tax incentives for buying cars powered by rare earths and other materials unavailable in the US come under our lens. As we consider the possible repercussions of an electric vehicle world heavily reliant on Chinese imports for rare earths, we look at how supply chain disruptions can have far-reaching impacts on everyday citizens. It's an eye-opening exploration that you can't afford to miss.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Join Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer of the Human Rights Foundation, as he explores Bitcoin's potential in fighting monetary repression and upholding freedom. They discuss the history of the dollar system, the impact of debt on developing nations, and Bitcoin's growing influence on freedom movements. The podcast also touches on Bitcoin adoption in El Salvador and its potential as a reserve currency.

Join Weston Nakamura, a seasoned finance professional, as he discusses the dynamics of central bank policies, Japan's yield curve control, and the influence of Asian markets on the global financial framework. Delve into the history of Japan's economy, the birth and impact of the carry trade, and the potential global market implications of a rising yen against speculative short positions. Explore Japan's current debt crisis, the Bank of Japan's ETF holdings, wealth inequality, and the potential influence on the Japanese equity market.

Finance expert Sofia Horta e Costa discusses the recent market downgrade and its contrasts to the 2011 financial crash. Topics include UK and China markets, shockers from the Bank of England, China's consumer spending, the housing market, dynamics between China and Taiwan, advancements in AI, the role of financial news, and the impact of doom-and-gloom reporting.

Join us for an enlightening conversation with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics. Together, we'll dive into the heart of today's economic landscape, dissecting everything from the impact of Fitch's downgrade on US Treasury debt to the consequences of history's fastest rate hike cycle. Mark's expertise and insights illuminate the intricate workings of the economy, making this episode a must-hear for anyone keen to deepen their understanding of the economic world around them.The conversation doesn't stop there. We'll navigate through the complexities of asset pricing, exploring the elusive concept of fair value and its deviation. Mark's perspective on the current valuation of corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, CLOs, and the equity market offers a fresh and engaging viewpoint. We'll also delve into the murky waters of recession prediction, assessing the possible risks in the housing market while shedding light on the management of yield curves by banks.As we wrap up, Mark will share insights into long-term interest rates, corporate spreads, and introduce us to Economic View - a treasure trove of invaluable resources. This episode promises an enriching journey through the intricate labyrinth of economics. So, whether you're a seasoned economic enthusiast or a curious novice, this episode with Mark Zandi offers a wealth of knowledge just waiting to be uncovered. Join us as we unravel the complexities of the economic world, one discussion at a time.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Prepare to embark on a journey into the complex world of global terrorism, international relations and foreign policy with our esteemed guest, Max Abrahms, a globally recognized professor of political science. Together, we dissect the intricate links between these areas, pulling apart threads that weave into the fabric of our modern world. By examining the transformation of terrorism, most notably illustrated through the rise of the Islamic State, and the resultant formation of an unmatched counterterrorism coalition, we bring to light the shifting focus to domestic terrorism and the role of globalization and technology in this evolution.As we probe more deeply, we navigate the stormy seas of extremist ideologies, casting light on the role played by globalization and technology in their spread. Max Abrams and I plunge into a spirited debate on whether these ideologies amplify over time, a question that has far-reaching implications. We also lay bare the geopolitical tug of war between Russia, Ukraine, and US policy, and its impact on the West's support of Ukraine. This discussion is not merely a theoretical exercise, but reveals the very real and tangible consequences for the world at large.Lastly, we turn our attention to the often overlooked, yet pivotal role of academics in foreign policy decision-making. With Max Abrahms, we weigh the merits and pitfalls of think tanks versus academics, a dichotomy that could significantly influence foreign policy outcomes. Our conversation also ventures into the arena of elite decision-making, framing of foreign policy for the public, and the potential tripwires within the Ukraine-Russia conflict. As we conclude, we appreciate our listeners' engagement, underscoring the critical role of knowledge in framing policy and the media's role in shaping public discourse. Join us for this enlightening journey as we dissect and understand the issues shaping our world today.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Ever wonder why financial safeguards like portfolio insurance and derivatives sometimes fail catastrophically? In our latest episode with Dave Kranzler, we dissect these instruments and their inability to accommodate extreme two-sigma events, a shortfall that contributed to the 1987 stock market crash and Long Term Capital's collapse. We also unravel the unique intricacies of the gamma squeeze dynamic and its distinct divergence from traditional derivative scenarios.Are we headed for a recession or a stock market bubble? We dig into this question by examining the time-lag that occurs when the Federal Reserve injects money into the banking system and its subsequent movement into the financial market. We also scrutinize the yield curve as a forewarning sign of a possible recession and raise some thought-provoking questions about AI's potential impact on the economy. Furthermore, we examine the recent NASDAQ rally and deliberate its potential downturn by August.Lastly, we venture into the puzzling disconnection between the housing market and junk bonds. Delving into the world of homebuilders, we examine how companies like DR Horton report encouraging numbers despite declining deliveries. We expose how their operating income and net income have decreased year over year, leading to discounted prices to stimulate sales. Finally, we look at the credit market, its benefit from Fed money printing, and the consequential issue of triple C rated paper now yielding 10 percent. Join us for an enlightening conversation that will enhance your understanding of the financial market's complexities.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Highlighting our guest, Chris Fenton, the episode offers unraveled insights into the complex world of US-China relations. Fenton, known as the Dragon feeder, shares his remarkable journey of taking a Chinese company from a $30 million valuation to a mind-boggling $8.5 billion. In the first segment, Fenton provides a glimpse into his Hollywood background, and the challenges he faced navigating the US-China relationship in a manner that prioritized America and its allies. He also shares his experience with the Select Committee on China, the bipartisan hearings they have structured, and the issues of censorship and propaganda that they are keen on addressing.Now, imagine the impact of forced joint ventures on businesses eager to penetrate the Chinese market. This episode dissects the implications of China's control and influence on such businesses, with a keen focus on the role of lobbyist efforts in urging for a more open business environment in the country. We also explore the COVID pandemic's effect on the US's dependence on China and the emerging concept of de-globalization. But that's not all - we look at how TikTok is shaping the culture of the younger generation and its potential influence on future US-China relations.Navigating further into the intricate world of Chinese influence, we discuss the need for Western unity to counter international challenges posed by China effectively. The conversation takes a deep dive into the potential consequences of Beijing taking control of Taiwan, from the economic to the geopolitical. Fenton offers his expert insights into the economic hurdles China faces, including its debt overhang and the question of local and regional governments' role in generating false growth numbers. By the end of this episode, we promise, you'll be more enlightened than ever about the dynamics of US-China relations and the potential future of this critical global relationship.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show