BNP Paribas Wealth Management

 Patience has been needed as gold struggles this year but outperforming most other asset classes. Gold should regain its luster as a hedge, but what is required?   Two catalysts: (1) Peak in real rates and (2) Peak in the dollar which will likely when the US economy falters with recession likely first half of next year.  Then federal reserve fund rate expectations will peak likely boosting gold. Gold of course pays no carry.     ¡ Gold has been impacted by the strong rise in real bond yields (10yr from -1% in March to +1,57% on 29/9) and by the strength of the USD  ¡ Gold should regain its luster as a hedge against stagflation risks when the real rates and strong USD headwinds will abate. A declining economic momentum should be accompanied by a weaker dollar and lower long-term bond yields.  ¡ EM central banks have reiterated their intention to increase their gold reserves.    ¡ The post-COVID recovery of the jewelry sector in China and India should also help.  ¡ From a LT perspective, the huge increase in public debt could become unsustainable if long term real rates increase above the real GDP growth rate. If as we expect, economic growth weakens, real long-term rates will have to decline and that is very bullish for gold.      We still advise to keep a longer-term overweight position in gold as it remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical, economic and financial tail risks  Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

 Winners and losers from higher interest rates     · Why are central banks forced to raise interest rates when inflation goes up?   · What is the impact on savers and borrowers?  · What kind of companies benefit from rising interest rates?   · How long will the policy tightening cycle last?   · What is “financial repression”? Is it a good or a bad thing for financial markets?  · In this context, what should people invest?  Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

En cas d’inflation, pourquoi les banques centrales doivent monter leurs taux d'intérêt ?   Quel est l'impact de la hausse des taux sur les épargnants et les emprunteurs ?  Quels secteurs peuvent bénéficier de la hausse destaux ?   Combien de temps le cycle de resserrement va-t-ildurer ?   Qu'est-ce que la « répression financière » ? Est-ce une bonne ou une mauvaise nouvelle pour les marchés financiers ?  Dans ce contexte, quelle est la bonne stratégie à adopter pour un investisseur ?   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Pourquoi Jack Bogle a-t-il joué un rôle déterminant dans le monde de l'investissement ?   1) Qu'est-ce qu'un investissement indiciel et pourquoi est-il important pour l'investisseur moyen ?  2) L'achat du marché est-il la voie à suivre pour la plupart des gens ?  3) Quelle était la philosophie d'investissement de M. Bogle ?   4) Quelles leçons les investisseurs peuvent-ils tirer de la carrière de Bogle ? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

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Why have you raised your recommendation on corporate credit to positive? Can you tell us more about the mini-budget announced in the UK? Why does the extreme level of investor pessimism offer a long-term buy opportunity? Why does the strong volatility in financial markets offer a long-term buy opportunity? Are you worried about the new Italian government?  Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Pourquoi avez-vous relevé votre recommandation sur les crédits d’entreprises à positif ? Que pourriez-vous nous dire sur le plan des réductions d’impôts du Royaume-Uni ? Pourquoi le pessimisme extrême des investisseurs aujourd’hui donne une opportunité d’achat ? Pourquoi la forte volatilité des marchés financiers offre une opportunité d’achat à long terme ? Êtes-vous inquiets par le nouveau gouvernement italien ?  Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

 What is the so-called “mini-budget” all about?   Why did the government’s announcement spark a violent reaction in financial markets?   What growth-oriented policies is the UK chancellor proposing?   Should people be concerned about their existing UK investments?  In which areas of the UK could people invest, in your opinion?   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

 Ce rapport vise à répondre aux questions les plus fréquemment posées par nos clients à l'heure actuelle.   Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.