Investopoly

Federal Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg has asked the Council of Financial Regulators to investigate the fact that credit growth is materially outpacing growth in household income and to advise on any policy responses.In lay terms, the Treasurer is worried that people are borrowing too much money compared to their incomes and that could be risky for the economy.Increase in home lending is pronouncedIt has been well documented that house prices in Australia have been rising at a fast pace over the past year. But this isn’t unique to Australia. This is also a global phenomenon, as illustrated in Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index report released last week. This report ranks the house price growth in 56 countries and Australia ranks 18th.It is higher loan volumes that have caused higher property prices. The ABS chart below shows that most of the increase in lending has been driven by owner-occupiers (being the dark blue line), not investors.CHART ON WEBSITEThe monthly volume of home loans has been rising significantly since mid-2020. The average volume of lending between December 2020 and August 2021 was $21.7 billion per month. The average for the 10-year period prior to June-2020, was only $11.6 billion per month.Approximately 60% of the increase in lending over the past 9 months has been driven by an increase in the number of borrowers. And 40% has been driven by an increase in the average loan size i.e. people borrowing more. This makes sense as higher income earners have largely been (economically) unaffected by the Covid lockdowns.Level of household debt is a worryThe chart below illustrates how the level of household debt (blue line) has increased over the past three decades. The green line depicts the interest cost of this debt. The interest cost has remained relatively contained for the past decade, thanks to falling interest rates.CHART ON WEBSITEHousehold budgets will clearly be more sensitive to future interest rate increases because they have more debt. This means that any future increases in the RBA Cash Rate will be more effective in containing inflation (by cooling consumer spending). As such, it is entirely possible, even likely that interest rates may neverMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Personal insurance is becoming more difficult to obtain and increasingly costly to maintain. This blog outlines the approach we take when formulating how much insurance our clients need and strategies to manage its cost.What is personal insurance?This blog refers to personal insurance only. That typically includes up to four products:§ Income protection insurance – which pays a monthly benefit if you are unable to work due to illness or injury;§ Life – pays a lump sum benefit if you die;§ TPD – stands for Total and Permanent Disability which pays a lump sum benefit if you are unable to ever return to work in the future, due to illness or injury; and§ Trauma – pays a lump sum benefit if you are diagnosed with a ‘specified condition’ which, statistically, includes cancer and cardiovascular events. Even if your ability to be able to work is not impaired, you can still claim a benefit. Benefits are paid according to diagnoses, not symptoms.Other common insurance products such as health, house and contents and car insurances are defined as ‘general insurance’ products. These are the domain of general insurance brokers, not financial advisors.What determines how much insurance you need?In most situations, the two key factors which dictate how much insurance you need are:1. Financial commitments and obligations including mortgages, living expenses, children’s education, dependents and so on. The higher the levels of commitments, the more insurance cover you need. I view the cost of insurance as a necessary consequence of borrowing money. That is, if you aren’t prepared to obtain insurance to reduce your risk, then perhaps you should reconsider borrowing.2. Your financial strength or net worth. The stronger your asset base is, the less insurance you need, as you have sufficient financial resources to maintain living expenses and meet goals for the rest of your life in the event you cannot work. Of course, if you do not have sufficient assets, you need some level of insurance cover.Your requirements often depend on your stage of lifeIn the below video I walk you through the four common life cycle phases and how they relate to your insurance requirements.[Embed video https://vimeo.com/615661071]SingleWhilst young adults typically have very small asset bases, they also tend to have veMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

How to value stocks – an introduction to valuation conceptsTwo years ago I wrote a popular blog that explained some simple share market concepts and jargon (see here). Building on this introductory information, I thought it was timely to discuss basic share market valuation principles to help investors assess whether a stock is over or under valued.To be clear, I’m not advocating investing in direct stocks. In fact, there is an overwhelming amount of evidence that demonstrates direct share investing (i.e. picking stocks) fails to produce above market returns over the long run. However, it is still useful to understand basic share market valuation principles.The ‘Efficient-Market Hypothesis’The Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) was popularised by Nobel laureate, Professor Eugene Fama. The hypothesis suggests that share prices always accurately reflect all available information. The idea is that the market is made up of thousands (and in some cases, perhaps millions of people) that analyse all available information in relation to a particular company. Many of them are professional investment managers with a lot of education and experience working 40-80 hours per week. This information informs their trades i.e. at what price they are happy to buy and sell. And it is this process of “price discovery” that determines the value of a stock.My personal view is that the EMH might be true over long periods of time. However, in the short run, it is possible (in fact, likely) that markets can be inefficient. Behavioural economics explains that sometimes investors can act irrationally, driven by overconfidence, overreaction, overexuberance, greed, fear and so on. The “meme stock” behaviour earlier this year is a perfect example of how markets can be inefficient and stock prices can be wrong.This is why it’s useful to understand basic valuation principals.The value of a business is equal to the present value of its future cash flowsThe value of any business is equal to the present value of its future cash flows. To calculate that, you need to forecast the business’ free cash flows and then apply a discount rate to express the value in today’s dollars. The discount rate must reflect the risk associated with the cash flows e.g. the higher the risk, the higher the discMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Over the past 20 years, the US share market has risen 5-fold, the Australian share market 5.4-fold and Australian property 4.2-fold. That means if you invested half a million dollars 20 years ago, in either shares or property, it should be worth between $2 and $2.5 million today. You’d have even more money if you added some gearing.This observation raises an interesting question. That is, why aren’t more people independently wealthy? I suspect the answer lies in their actions, or more correctly their inaction.We make emotional decisions not logical onesIt is a widely accepted fact that we make decisions based on our emotions (how we feel) and then rationalise these decisions with logic. Often, we do this unconsciously.We’d like to believe that we are logical and rational animals. But the truth is that we are not. Our decisions, particularly about money, are shaped by our beliefs, upbringing, our peer group, past experiences and culture. We tell ourselves stories about money. And then we use confirmation bias to validate those stories.Self-awareness and reflection are probably the greatest gifts as they help you recognise how you think, so you can stop allowing emotions influence your financial decisions.Building wealth requires a logical, pragmatic and rational approach. Emotions are not only unhelpful but can be dangerous.Common fear # 1: Paying attention will be painfulSometimes it feels easier to stick our head in the sand and ignore a (potential) problem. For example, most people know that it’s not financially prudent to spend all income on lifestyle expenses. They probably realise that they should be investing/saving some of their income. But to do that, they will have to admit to themselves (and maybe others) that they have been doing the wrong thing in the past. It feels less painful to ignore the issue and “get to it one day”.The problem with ignoring financial misbehaviours is that they magically don’t disappear. They compound. Just like good financial decisions compound, so do bad ones. The longer you ignore it, the worse the consequences will be. And those consequences will be forced upon you at some point in life. For example, you will have to stop working at My new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Borrowing to invest in property is a popular and highly effective wealth accumulation strategy if it’s implemented correctly. However, loan structuring can often be an afterthought. The reality is that loan structuring and maximising your borrowing capacity is almost just as important as buying the right property. This blog sets out how to structure your loans to build a property portfolio.A step-by-step exampleThe video below takes you through an example of how to structure your loans.See video here. Step one: access equity (deposit loan)You will need to pay a deposit (usually 10%) when you purchase a property. Therefore, you need to arrange access to these borrowed funds. Even if you have access to cash savings, I still recommend that you establish a new loan. This blog explains why this is important.I recommend arranging a loan sufficient to fund 20% of the property’s value plus all costs in addition to a buffer. This loan will be secured by an existing property e.g. your home.Step two: arrange an 80% loanYou will be able to fund 20% plus all costs from the deposit loan. Therefore, you need to arrange a second investment loan to fund the remaining 80%. This loan will be secured by the investment property only. This loan should be pre-approved before you purchase.Step three: consolidate loansWhen your investment property’s value has risen by 35% to 40% above the purchase price, which could take 5 to 7 years, you should be able to consolidate the deposit loan with the 80% loan so that all the debt is in one loan solely secured by the investment property. In this case, your home is no longer required as security.This structure avoids cross-securitisation which is important as explained in this blog.Additional investment propertiesIf you plan to invest in multiple properties, you can repeat the steps above. For simplicity, it is acceptable to maintain one deposit loan to fund deposits for multiple propertiesMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Investing in the share market is a relatively easy, simple and a low-cost investment strategy to implement, if you know the right way to do it, of course. However, if you don’t know what you’re doing, it’s easy to mess it up. In this blog, I set out how to implement a highly successful (over the long run) share market investment strategy using a low-cost, evidence-based approach.Of course, the information in this blog (and in fact, in all my blogs) is general in nature. It’s not written or tailored for you, as I do not know your personal circumstances, goals, risk appetite and so on. Therefore, be careful. If you have any doubt, always seek independent financial advice.There are three steps to implementing a share market investment strategy.Step one: chose your investment methodologyWhen investing in the share market, you have three broad options:1. Invest in direct shares i.e. pick the stocks that you would like to buy;2. Employ the services of professionals to pick the stocks on your behalf e.g. use a stockbroker or actively managed fund; and/or3. Invest in low-cost index funds (this could be described as a rules-based approach to picking which stocks to invest in).Regular readers of this blog will know that I strongly believe in only employing evidence-based investment approaches. And there’s an overwhelming amount of evidence that demonstrates that index investing has the greatest probability of generating the highest returns over the long run. If you’d like to learn more, I present this evidence in this blog and also in my book, Investopoly.Some people are attracted to investing in shares for fun (i.e. a bit of excitement). A perfect example of this is what happened to US stock, GameStop and other meme stocks. The core purpose of investing is to build wealth, not to have fun! In fact, if done correctly investing should be boring. Although the process might be boring, the outcome is exciting!Step two: pick the productNow that you have decided to adopt an indexing methodology (if not, return to step # 1!), it is time to pick the product you will use.I strongly recommend you use a diversified pMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Approximately half of Australia’s population is currently in a lockdown, and this may continue for another few months until vaccine target levels are reached. I wanted to discuss what impact this may have on the property market and the broader economy.Of course, there are wide ranging impactsThe impact of Covid lockdowns can be wide-ranging. Dealing with the challenges of home schooling, not seeing family, not enjoying your normal pastimes, business failures, job losses, mental health challenges and so on. Of course, we all have a tremendous amount of empathy for the various ways that lockdowns are negatively impacting people’s lives. That said, the aim of this blog is to focus purely on economic impacts only.What we learnt from previous lockdownsThe lockdowns in Australia during 2020 and around the world taught us some valuable lessons, as there were some common themes, namely:§ Low-income earners tend to be impacted to a much greater extent. In fact, it is not uncommon for higher income earners to avoid any negative financial impacts from being in lockdown, because as they can work from home, they retain their employment and income.§ Because people cannot undertake their normal (non-lockdown) activities, we observe two economic trends. Firstly, people save more money (i.e. the savings rate spikes), which improves their financial position. Secondly, people tend to spend more on durable goods – although this trend will probably diminish at some point – how many new appliances do we really need!§ Whilst an increase in business failures hasn’t yet been reflected in insolvency statistics, it stands to reason that each successive lockdown (Melbourne’s onto its 6th) puts an increasing amount of pressure on some businesses, as their financial resources deplete. Anecdotally, unfortunately I have observed a greater number of business closures in the Melbourne CBD over the past couple of months.§ Overall economic demand does tend to bounce back strongly and quickly. At a macro level, demand for spending by higher income earners tends to more than compensate for lower levels of demand by income earners.But we don’t have JobKeeper anymore?The federal government’s Covid-19 DisasteMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Land tax is levied on the value of an investor’s landholdings on 31 December each year. It is an insidious tax as any land tax is relatively small when you initially purchase an investment property but typically increases each year. As such, the problem is that it can become quite costly by the time you reach retirement – a time when it’s preferrable to pay less tax, not more.There may be several opportunities to minimise land tax which are discussed in this blog.Land value is a vital attribute of an investment-grade propertyThe value of a property comprises of the value of the underlying land plus the dwelling’s value (i.e. improvements that are permanently located on the land). Typically, land appreciates in value over time whereas buildings depreciate. Therefore, to maximise your property’s rate of capital growth, you must invest in property’s that have a high land value i.e. more than 50% of the property’s value should be in the land.There are a couple of consequences of investing in high land value properties:1. High land value properties tend to produce low rental yields. That’s because renters don’t really care about the value of the underlying land. Renters are more impressed by the size and quality of the accommodation; and2. High land value properties attract higher land tax liabilities.Remember, the power of compounding capital growth more than compensates investors for these disadvantages.In the past, it hasn’t been wise to own property in a company but…One of the major disadvantages of owning investments in a company is that a company is not entitled to the 50% capital gains tax discount.If you realise a capital gain in your personal name of $100, you can discount that gross gain by 50% if you have held the investment for 12 months or longer. As such, the investor will be taxed on a net gain of $50 at their marginal tax rate. If they earn over $180,000 p.a., their rate of tax is 47%, so they will pay $23.50 in tax. In short, the maximum rate of tax in respect of CGT in their personal name is 23.5%.If a company makes a capital gain of $100, it will pay tax on the whole gain as the 50% discount is not available. As the corporate tax rate is 30%, it will pay $30 of tax.In this situation, the investor that uses a company pays a high tax rate by 6.5% (i.e. 28% moreMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

As a completely independent advisor, I have no vested interest in how my clients invest. Whether they invest in property, shares or any other asset class makes no difference to my life. Of course, I want them to invest in (1) assets that are most appropriate for them and (2) assets that provide the highest returns without taking unacceptably high risk. I know that if I help my clients invest successfully, they will continue to remain clients and therein lies my firm’s success. Often investors contemplate (and compare) investing in either property or shares.The property versus shares debate is meaninglessIt is often debated which asset class is better, property or shares. I view this debate like arguing which golf club is best. Each club has its unique purpose, and the reality is that golfers need many clubs in their bag to play well. Investing is no different. Investing in a mixture of asset classes allows you to balance out the pros and cons of each asset class at a portfolio level. Ignoring any one asset class in totality gives rise to higher investment risk as you are putting too many eggs in one basket.In summary, I think shares and property are equally good asset classes. I believe that most investors should invest in both. I believe that if you employ an evidence-based approach, in the long run, the investment returns produced by property and shares should be materially similar.The big difference is an investors’ appetite for gearingMost people feel more comfortable borrowing to invest in property but less so with shares. There is good reason for that. The chart below is from my book, Investopoly. It sets out the long term returns and corresponding volatility of each asset class.See chart here. The average volatility rate (or standard deviation) for shares is 20.9% and the average long-term return is 11.6% p.a. To put this in non-mathematical terms, two-thirds of the time, you can expect that your annual return from shares to be in the range of -9.3% and 32.5% (being plus or minus one standard deviation from the average). And 95% of the time your return will between -30% and 53% (plus or minus two standard deviations). That is a very wide range, right? And that is why shares are seen as volatile, as return can vary significantly from year to year.However, My new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

I hosted a seminar in August 2018 where I presented an investment case for (investment-grade) houses in Brisbane in the $800,000 to $1m price range. It was my thesis that they represented excellent value and had a high probability of delivering above-average returns in the medium term. An investment grade house that sold for circa $800,000 in late 2018 would be worth well over $1 million today.Depending on your financial position, existing assets and investment strategy, an investment-grade property in Brisbane might still be an excellent investment. I set out some pros and cons to consider in this blog (in no particular order).Pro: Overseas and interstate migrationThe chart below sets out interstate migration for NSW, Victoria and Queensland. Sydney’s interstate migration has been negative for many years (as a Melbournian, I’ll resist the temptation to disparage Sydney). The clear trend over the past 5 years is that a growing number of people are moving from Victoria and NSW to Queensland. However, historically, almost all interstate migrants move to the Sunshine and Gold Coast, not Brisbane. However, I suspect that Covid might change that trend.See chart here. This next chart sets out net overseas migration since 2004. Overseas migration declined significantly between 2008 and 2015. It was starting to recover but of course Covid has interrupted that. Unlike interstate migration, almost all overseas migrants move to Brisbane.See chart here.Interestingly, New Zealanders tend to represent around half of the total permanent migrants. But fewer New Zealanders have been moving to Queensland in recent (pre-covid) years. The number of New Zealand migrants between 2017 and 2019 ranged between 1,500 and 3,000. By comparison, in 2008 over 16,000 New Zealanders moved to Queensland. A rebound in New Zealand migration could have positive consequences for Brisbane and its property market.I suspect that Covid has highlighted how attractive Australia is as a designation for overseas migrants. And, for some of the reasons highlighted below, Brisbane is well positioned to attract a large share of these immigrants.Pro: Large infrastructure spendingBrisbane is My new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.