Investopoly

For my final podcast for 2021, I thought it would be interesting to look back to see how various investment asset-classes performed. This is important for two reasons. Firstly, it is wise to benchmark your investment returns so that you can assess relative performance. Secondly, it serves as a salient reminder about the cost of delay and procrastination.Short-term returns are unimportantIn isolation, short term returns are meaningless. That’s because your focus as an investor must be on maximising medium to long term investment returns. What can I invest in today that is likely to generate the highest returns over the next 5 to 10 years? That is the question you must ask yourself.Therefore, it’s important to highlight at the beginning of this blog that you should not put too much importance on short-term (i.e. 1 year) investment returns. Resist the temptation to guess what asset class will perform best next year. Instead, ask yourself which asset class or investment will produce the highest returns over the next 5+ years i.e. between 2022 and 2027.Share marketsIt was a year of two halves in share markets this year. The first half benefited from strong price appreciation, particularly for value stocks. The second half was adversely impacted by a few things including the risk that higher inflation may not be transitory, interest rate hikes occurring sooner than expected, central banks tapering QE and more recently, the potential impact of the new Omnicom variant.The table below sets out returns until the end of November 2021 for the main geographical markets.https://www.prosolution.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Equity-market-returns-table.pngEmerging markets predominantly include China, Taiwan, South Korea and India. They have been impacted by all the concerns listed above plus many Chinese-specific matters including diplomatic and trade-related tensions, Evergrande default (that occurred last week), tech industry crackdown and economic growth concerns.This has conspired to make emerging markets the most attractively priced sub-asset class, behind the UK market, as illustrated in the table below.Expected returns are calculated by Research Affiliates, LLC using various evidence-based valuation models. Total return is the aggregate of income + earnings growtMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Discover why paying Capital Gains Tax (CGT) can be a sign of investment success. Learn to navigate the complexities of CGT calculations and how different entities like companies and trusts are treated. Uncover exemptions for main residences and ways to minimize tax through smart selling strategies. Plus, gain insights on the impact of inheritance on tax responsibilities. Personalize your approach to tax for better financial outcomes!

After almost 20 years of interacting with investors (and potential investors) on a daily basis, I’ve noticed some common themes that prevent investors from achieving their potential. If you can avoid all three, you are almost guaranteed to achieve financial security.Whilst some of these matters seem relatively simple, you should not let their simplicity fool you into thinking that they are anything less than critical.Why do we tend to overcomplicate matters?I believe that investing is simple. If you adopt a rules and evidence-based approach towards making investment decisions, it is virtually impossible to make a mistake. Successful investing is rooted in sound logic and basic math. There is nothing overly complex about it that cannot be explained in simple terms. That is why I wrote Investopoly – to outline 8 time-tested rules that if followed, would guarantee investors avoid making costly mistakes. I apologise if that sounds like a sales spiel. And I appreciate it sounds like a big promise. But I stand by it.If investing is simple, why do people over-complicate it? Of course, the reason depends on the individual. However, I think there are probably two reasons.Firstly, there is a lot at stake i.e. my family’s financial security, our dreams and goals. Given what’s at stake, people can have the tendency to over-think it due to fear of making a mistake.Secondly, to many people, investing seems complex. Humans tend to think that complex problems require complex solutions. The truth is, simple solutions tend to be very effective, exhibit lower risk, lower cost, easy to implement and easy to understand.Most mistakes are made by over-complicating financial decisions than over-simplifying them.Investment mistake # 1: try to work it all out themselvesAs a rule, I don’t perform my own dental work. I go to a dentist. When buying a property, I don’t do the conveyancing myself. I engage a professional and experienced lawyer. I don’t service my car… you get the point.I rely on various professionals when (1) the consequences of making a mistake are unacceptable and (2) I don’t have enough knowledge and experience to give me a high level of confidence that I will not make any mistakes.It has always puzzled me why someone would invest more than $1 million of borrowed money (e.g. buy an investment property) without gettinMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

With property and share markets trading at all-time highs, it’s reasonable and perhaps prudent to consider whether we are in a (asset price) bubble. Bubbles cannot grow indefinitely and at some point, all bubbles burst.Is the share market about to crash?Share markets around the world have been incredibly resilient throughout the pandemic and almost all markets are trading above pre-pandemic levels. That probably shouldn’t come as a big surprise, as government fiscal support here and abroad has been unprecedented and interest rates couldn’t be much lower.Rivian is a good example of a bubbleThere are some very clear examples of bubble-like share market valuations. The recent listing of shares in Rivian Automotive Inc. in the US (NASDAQ) is a perfect example. It listed on 9 November raising $US12 billion from investors. Rivan is valued at $US110 billion making it the 5th most valuable automotive manufacturer in the world, behind Volkswagen, which sells 2.8 million units (cars) per year. It’s worth almost as much as Australia’s most valuable company, CBA.Perhaps the most noteworthy thing about Rivian is that is hasn’t manufactured one product yet. That’s right! It hasn’t generated $1 of revenue, let alone a profit. It is true that Amazon has agreed to buy 100,000 electric delivery trucks from Rivian, which are to be on the road by 2030, but it effectively hasn’t manufactured one unit. There is no conceivable way on earth that a $US110+ billion valuation could be justified for this company. It’s insane.But not all stocks in the US are overvaluedIt is true that the large US tech companies have contributed substantially to the US stock market’s returns over the past 10 years. The FANMAG stocks now account for almost 24% of the S&P500 index. The total value of these six companies is almost $US8.5 trillion. Japan’s entire stock market is worth $US6 trillion. It is also noteworthy that Tesla’s market capitalisation (value) has added almost $US0.5 trillion to the S&P500 index since joining it in December 2020.But some of these tech companies have been driven by sound fundamentals. Take Apple as an example. It took 38 years to reach a $US1 trillion market valuation in 2018. It only took 2 years to double its valuation to $US2 trillion (by mid-2020). ItMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

A financial advisor’s job is to develop a plan and help you implement that plan over many years, so that you achieve your financial and lifestyle goals. This includes navigating the inevitable changes in your circumstances, markets, investments and so forth – knowing when to stick to the plan and when to alter it.Achieving your financial and lifestyle goals is an incredibly valuable outcome. Therefore, it is very likely that financial advisory fees will be a small fraction of that value.Just like in any profession, the best people are typically in high demand. Of course, when selecting an advisor, you definitely want the best that you can afford.Shrinking pool of financial advisorsAccording to research house, Rainmaker, approximately 30% (9,000) of financial advisors have left the industry since 2018. There are now less than 20,000 financial advisors in Australia.There have been lots of legislative changes over this time that have prompted financial advisors to change careers or retire, including the banning of commissions, mandatory tertiary education standards(all financial advisors must pass a mandatory exam before 1 January 2022), increasing insurance costs and ever-increasing compliance obligations and so on.The changes that have been implemented over the past few years have contributed towards lifting the bar (professionalism) for financial advisors. Of course, this is a good thing for the industry and its clients. But the result is that there is a growing shortage of financial advisors in Australia.It’s the person, not that business that mattersA financial advisor and their client have a very personal relationship. This relationship is based on a high level of trust. Therefore, it is critical that clients find an advisor they feel comfortable with. Of course, there’s a personal/emotional element to this.Second to trust is experience. Whilst it is possible to systemise some facets of the advice formulation process, what cannot be systemised or automated is experience. Experience is one of the most important and valuable benefits a financial advisor must share with you. Knowledge tells you what to do and experience tells you when and how to execute. The challenge is that experience isn’t scalMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to buy an investment-grade house for under $1 million in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. This begs the question; if your investment property budget is less than $1 million, where and how do you invest it?Brisbane is becoming more difficultIn early August 2021, I presented an investment case for buying an investment-grade home in Brisbane. My wife and I subsequently followed this advice (I put my money where my mouth is) and we purchased an investment-grade house in the Brisbane suburb of Indooroopilly, which settled last month.Whilst I am still very bullish about the Brisbane market, it is becoming more challenging to buy an investment-grade house for less than $1 million. Whilst it is still possible, it may not remain that way for long.House budgets must be substantially more than $1 million in Melbourne and SydneyIt will not come as a surprise that you need a budget of substantially more than $1 million to buy an investment-grade house in Melbourne and Sydney.In Melbourne, you need more than $1.3 million and approaching $2 million and above in Sydney.Of course, it is possible to find houses in these capital cities for less than $1 million, but these tend to be in non-investment-grade locations and/or have unacceptable compromises. That is, they are not deemed investment-grade assets.Remember, there’s never a good reason to invest in a sub-standard quality asset. Your long-term investment returns will be directly related to the quality of your investment assets. You cannot expect good investment returns from an average (or below) quality asset.A villa unit could be good optionVilla units are typically small houses that share the same block of land e.g. there might be 3 to 4 on the same block. They are often single-level homes that were constructed in the 1960’s or later. Typically, owners share some amenities, such as driveways, but mostly the owner has a direct interest in, and control of, their parcel of land.Villa units are often prevalent in impaired locations such as busy main roads or secondary suburbs. However, it is possible to find some investment-grade villa units in blue-chip suburbs, but you must select judiciously. Villa units are scarce assets, particularly in blue-chip suburbs – property developers don’t build any more as they are not economiMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

The topic of rising inflation and its potential impact on interest rates has been dominating the financial press over the past few weeks. The bond markets expect that higher inflation readings will force central banks to raise interest rates.It’s my opinion that higher inflation is likely to be temporary. And it’s also useful to remember that “markets” (and popular opinion) are not always right. Bond markets priced in higher inflation in February 2021 but eventually normalised after a few months.A quick economics lesson: why does inflation lead to higher interest rates?Inflation is a measure of rising costs. Inflation is measures by the ABS using a basket of goods and services. High inflation is bad for an economy because it erodes purchasing power, increases uncertainty and can have a negative impact the value of a country’s currency.A key role of the RBA is to manage inflation so that it remains inside its targeted 2% to 3% band. It does that by changing the cash interest rate (currently 0.10%). Increasing interest rates, reduces spending (because the business and private sector must direct more money towards interest costs) and therefore reduces demand for goods and services which cools price increases.Therefore, if markets expect that high inflation will persist, they price in that interest rates will increase, which negatively impacts the value of existing bonds, particularly if the coupon (interest rate) is fixed. This has been happening since August 2021 i.e. bond value have been falling.What’s causing higher inflation?As announced by the ABS last week, Australia’s inflation is 3% for the year ended September 2021, which is at the top end of the RBA’s target band. It was slightly less than expected (3.1%) and lower than last quarters annualised reading of 3.8%.This time last year, inflation was less than 1%, so what has happened since then? The chart below sets out how prices have changes over the past year. Five categories have risen by more than 2% over the past year being transport, furnishings, health, alcohol and tobacco and recreation.See chart here. 1. Transport – driven mainly by the rebound in the oil price. This time last year, oil was traMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Will the property market ever crash?I started ProSolution almost 20 years ago and if there’s been one common theme over that time, it is how “expensive” property is. This theme can be expressed in many ways such as predictions of property market crashes, housing affordability “crisis”, comparison of Australian property prices to other parts of the world and so forth. This noise is often unhelpful for property buyers.The reality is that property has always seemed relatively expensive. And it’s probably never going to change. You must get used to it and learn to make prudent decisions despite the prevailing property price rhetoric.I felt ill after almost ever property I’ve boughtIn December 2006, I engaged Richard Wakelin to select and purchase an investment-grade property. He ended up buying a single-fronted Victorian cottage on a small block (146 sqm) in Prahran, Melbourne for $723,000. It was a record price for that street (the street is lined with similar Victorian cottages) and probably suburb. Paying a record price didn’t feel satisfying. In fact, it gave me indigestion. J But I trusted that buying an investment-grade asset that possessed sound fundamentals will work out well in the long run.This property last sold in August 2019 for $1.362 million[1] (unfortunately, I had to dispose of it as part of my marriage separation in 2012). That makes the price in 2006 seems relatively cheap today.Government policy supports property prices, and probably always willThe government’s policies have always supported property values. Of course, we can argue about the merits of this. And I think there’s a strong case to argue that the government shouldn’t interfere with the property market. But the reality is, they always have, and probably always will.There are several examples of this including taxation incentives like negative gearing, Rudd governments doubling of the First Home Owners Boost in 2008 in the middle of the GFC, federal government asking the banks to provide loan repayment pauses last year and so forth. As soon as the property market has some challenges, the government always steps in.There are two realities to acknowledge. Firstly, falling home values are bad for the whole economy. They impair consumer confidence and therefore consumer spending, and that deteriorates the whole economy.Secondly, theMy new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

I wrote a blog in February 2020 highlighting the first phase of government mandated changes to income protection insurance products. The second phase of changes were implemented at the beginning of this month, and they are very significant. This blog discusses these important changes and how they may affect you.BackgroundIn December 2019, the insurance industry’s regulator (APRA), released a report outlining a number of compulsory changes that it mandated for income protection insurance products. Income protection insurance pays you a benefit if you cannot work due to accident or illness (it does not protect you from involuntary unemployment).These changes were deemed necessary because insurance companies were losing literally billions of dollars on these products i.e. cost of paying benefits far exceeded premium revenue. However, no insurer wanted to make the first move to stem the losses. Fearing that insurance companies may eventually exit the Australian market (if no action was taken), the regulator stepped in and mandated changes to make products more sustainable.There were two main issues that caused these products to be so unprofitable:1. An inability for insurance companies to change terms to accommodate new risks. Mental health is a good example. Mental health claims were immaterial when policy terms were written 20 years ago. However, today, claims due to mental health are more substantial.2. Long term benefits are very costly. If a 30-year-old claims on a policy and is never able to return to work, the insurer could be paying a benefit for the next 35 years. That is very costly. Therefore, it is important that policies only provide for genuine claims. Unfortunately, for the insurers, some policy terms are so generous that they sometimes act as a disincentive to cease being on-claim. This exacerbates losses.Summary of the changes made this monthAll insurers launched new product suites at the beginning of this month (existing products are no longer available). These new products reflected four important changes:1. The amount of income that can be insured has reduced from 75% to 70% of your gross income. Replacing less of your pre-disability income gives you a greater incentive to return to employment as soon as possible.My new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

I have noticed that more people are attracted to seeking out work that they have a personal connection with, particularly since the beginning of Covid. That is, for a growing number of people, the emotional rewards (satisfaction) that their work offers is becoming more important than the financial rewards. This might include working in the not-for-profit sector, working for a socially conscious organisation or starting their own business.Of course, not everyone has the flexibility to immediately resign from a high paying job. But of course, you can put a plan in place that allows you more freedom and flexibility in the future. I wanted to discuss the common considerations we tackle when working with clients in this regard.Three phases of wealth accumulationIt is important to recognise that there are typically three phases associated with becoming financially free as illustrated below.ChartPhase one: Accumulation – this phase involves accumulating the required quantum of assets needed to fund retirement. That could include acquiring investment property(s), making additional contributions into super, investing surplus cash flow into shares and so on. This phase typically requires you to contribute as much cash flow as possible i.e. to maximise your earnings and minimise your expenses.Phase two: Income flexibility – the main aim of this phase is to give your investment assets enough time to benefit from the power of compounding capital growth. This phase requires you to earn enough income to pay for living expenses and maintain your investment portfolio. That is, you may have flexibility to earn less during this phase either through changing roles or not working full-time.Phase three: Retirement – it probably goes without saying that this phase doesn’t require you to generate any personal exertion income. All living expenses are funded from your investment/asset pool.Therefore, if you would like to get yourself into a position where you have more choices regarding the type of work you do (i.e. less pressure to maximise your income), what you must do is focus on accelerating phase one.My new book out in mid-2026: To join the pre-order waitlist and get a bonus. More info go to: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.