80,000 Hours Podcast

Rogue elements within a state’s security forces enrich dozens of kilograms of uranium. It’s then assembled into a crude nuclear bomb. The bomb is transported on a civilian aircraft to Washington D.C, and loaded onto a delivery truck. The truck is driven by an American citizen midway between the White House and the Capitol Building. The driver casually steps out of the vehicle, and detonates the weapon. There are more than 80,000 instant deaths. There are also at least 100,000 seriously wounded, with nowhere left to treat them. Full blog post about this episode, including a transcript, summary and links to resources mentioned in the show It’s likely that one of those immediately killed would be Samantha Pitts-Kiefer, who works only one block away from the White House. Samantha serves as Senior Director of The Global Nuclear Policy Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and warns that the chances of a nuclear terrorist attack are alarmingly high. Terrorist groups have expressed a desire for nuclear weapons, and the material required to build those weapons is scattered throughout the world at a diverse range of sites – some of which lack the necessary security. When you combine the massive death toll with the accompanying social panic and economic disruption – the consequences of a nuclear 9/11 would be a disasterare almost unthinkable. And yet, Samantha reminds us – we must confront the possibility. Clearly, this is far from the only nuclear nightmare. We also discuss: * In the case of nuclear war, what fraction of the world's population would die? * What is the biggest nuclear threat? * How concerned should we be about North Korea? * How often has the world experienced nuclear near misses? * How might a conflict between India and Pakistan escalate to the nuclear level? * How quickly must a president make a decision in the result of a suspected first strike? * Are global sources of nuclear material safely secured? * What role does cyber security have in preventing nuclear disasters? * How can we improve relations between nuclear armed states? * What do you think about the campaign for complete nuclear disarmament? * If you could tell the US government to do three things, what are the key priorities today? * Is it practical to get members of congress to pay attention to nuclear risks? * Could modernisation of nuclear weapons actually make the world safer?

Ofir Reich started out doing math in the military, before spending 8 years in tech startups - but then made a sharp turn to become a data scientist focussed on helping the global poor. At UC Berkeley’s Center for Effective Global Action he helps prevent tax evasion by identifying fake companies in India, enable Afghanistan to pay its teachers electronically, and raise yields for Ethiopian farmers by messaging them when local conditions make it ideal to apply fertiliser. Or at least that’s the hope - he’s also working on ways to test whether those interventions actually work. Full post about this episode, including a transcript and relevant links to learn more. Why dedicate his life to helping the global poor? Ofir sees little moral difference between harming people and failing to help them. After all, if you had to press a button to keep all of your money from going to charity, and you pressed that button, would that be an action, or an inaction? Is there even an answer? After reflecting on cases like this, he decided that to not engage with a problem is an active choice, one whose consequences he is just as morally responsible for as if he were directly involved. On top of his life philosophy we also discuss: * The benefits of working in a top academic environment * How best to start a career in global development * Are RCTs worth the money? Should we focus on big picture policy change instead? Or more economic theory? * How the delivery standards of nonprofits compare to top universities * Why he doesn’t enjoy living in the San Francisco bay area * How can we fix the problem of most published research being false? * How good a career path is data science? * How important is experience in development versus technical skills? * How he learned much of what he needed to know in the army * How concerned should effective altruists be about burnout? Keiran Harris helped produce today’s episode.

Immanuel Kant is a profoundly influential figure in modern philosophy, and was one of the earliest proponents for universal democracy and international cooperation. He also thought that women have no place in civil society, that it was okay to kill illegitimate children, and that there was a ranking in the moral worth of different races. Throughout history we’ve consistently believed, as common sense, truly horrifying things by today’s standards. According to University of Oxford Professor Will MacAskill, it’s extremely likely that we’re in the same boat today. If we accept that we’re probably making major moral errors, how should we proceed? Full transcript, key points and links to articles and career guides discussed in the show. If our morality is tied to common sense intuitions, we’re probably just preserving these biases and moral errors. Instead we need to develop a moral view that criticises common sense intuitions, and gives us a chance to move beyond them. And if humanity is going to spread to the stars it could be worth dedicating hundreds or thousands of years to moral reflection, lest we spread our errors far and wide. Will is an Associate Professor in Philosophy at Oxford University, author of Doing Good Better, and one of the co-founders of the effective altruism community. In this interview we discuss a wide range of topics: * How would we go about a ‘long reflection’ to fix our moral errors? * Will’s forthcoming book on how one should reason and act if you don't know which moral theory is correct. What are the practical implications of so-called ‘moral uncertainty’? * If we basically solve existential risks, what does humanity do next? * What are some of Will’s most unusual philosophical positions? * What are the best arguments for and against utilitarianism? * Given disagreements among philosophers, how much should we believe the findings of philosophy as a field? * What are some the biases we should be aware of within academia? * What are some of the downsides of becoming a professor? * What are the merits of becoming a philosopher? * How does the media image of EA differ to the actual goals of the community? * What kinds of things would you like to see the EA community do differently? * How much should we explore potentially controversial ideas? * How focused should we be on diversity? * What are the best arguments against effective altruism? Get free, one-on-one career advice We’ve helped hundreds of people compare their options, get introductions, and find high impact jobs. If you want to work on global priorities research or other important questions in academia, find out if our coaching can help you.

In the 40s and 50s neoliberalism was a fringe movement within economics. But by the 80s it had become a dominant school of thought in public policy, and achieved major policy changes across the English speaking world. How did this happen? In part because its leaders invested heavily in training academics to study and develop their ideas. Whether you think neoliberalism was good or bad, its history demonstrates the impact building a strong intellectual base within universities can have. Michelle Hutchinson is working to get a different set of ideas a hearing in academia by setting up the Global Priorities Institute (GPI) at Oxford University. The Institute, which is currently hiring for three roles, aims to bring together outstanding philosophers and economists to research how to most improve the world. The hope is that it will spark widespread academic engagement with effective altruist thinking, which will hone the ideas and help them gradually percolate into society more broadly. Link to the full blog post about this episode including transcript and links to learn more Its research agenda includes questions like: * How do we compare the good done by focussing on really different types of causes? * How does saving lives actually affect the world relative to other things we could do? * What are the biggest wins governments should be focussed on getting? Before moving to GPI, Michelle was the Executive Director of Giving What We Can and a founding figure of the effective altruism movement. She has a PhD in Applied Ethics from Oxford on prioritization and global health. We discuss: * What is global priorities research and why does it matter? * How is effective altruism seen in academia? Is it important to convince academics of the value of your work, or is it OK to ignore them? * Operating inside a university is quite expensive, so is it even worth doing? Who can pay for this kind of thing? * How hard is it to do something innovative inside a university? How serious are the administrative and other barriers? * Is it harder to fundraise for a new institute, or hire the right people? * Have other social movements benefitted from having a prominent academic arm? * How can people prepare themselves to get research roles at a place like GPI? * Many people want to have roles doing this kind of research. How many are actually cut out for it? What should those who aren’t do instead? * What are the odds of the Institute’s work having an effect on the real world? Get free, one-on-one career advice We’ve helped hundreds of people compare their options, get introductions, and find high impact jobs. If you want to work on global priorities research or other important questions in academia, find out if our coaching can help you.

Philip Tetlock, a social scientist and forecasting expert who led the Good Judgment Project, explains how to predict better. He discusses human–machine hybrid forecasting, why some groups (like Berkeley undergrads) underperform, when to defer to experts, how to aggregate and extremize judgments, and methods like Fermi estimates and outside views for improving forecasts.

Sharon Nunez and Jose Valle discuss their undercover investigations exposing animal abuse, the impact of their 3D farm experience iAnimal360, challenges in animal advocacy, global expansion strategies, and the success of corporate campaigns in improving animal welfare. They also talk about hiring for social science research, international expansion, skills needed in animal advocacy, and opportunities in the field.

Claire Walsh, Senior Policy Manager at J-PAL who leads government partnerships to scale evidence-based programs. She talks about running randomized trials with governments, how to get policymakers to care about results, measuring and scaling high-impact interventions like cash transfers and immunization incentives, and practical career paths into impact evaluation and policymaking.

“When you're in the middle of a crisis and you have to ask for money, you're already too late.” That’s Dr Beth Cameron, who leads Global Biological Policy and Programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Beth should know. She has years of experience preparing for and fighting the diseases of our nightmares, on the White House Ebola Taskforce, in the National Security Council staff, and as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs. Summary, list of career opportunities, extra links to learn more and coaching application. Unfortunately, the countries of the world aren’t prepared for a crisis - and like children crowded into daycare, there’s a good chance something will make us all sick at once. During past pandemics countries have dragged their feet over who will pay to contain them, or struggled to move people and supplies where they needed to be. At the same time advanced biotechnology threatens to make it possible for terrorists to bring back smallpox - or create something even worse. In this interview we look at the current state of play in disease control, what needs to change, and how you can build the career capital necessary to make those changes yourself. That includes: * What and where to study, and where to begin a career in pandemic preparedness. Below you’ll find a lengthy list of people and places mentioned in the interview, and others we’ve had recommended to us. * How the Nuclear Threat Initiative, with just 50 people, collaborates with governments around the world to reduce the risk of nuclear or biological catastrophes, and whether they might want to hire you. * The best strategy for containing pandemics. * Why we lurch from panic, to neglect, to panic again when it comes to protecting ourselves from contagious diseases. * Current reform efforts within the World Health Organisation, and attempts to prepare partial vaccines ahead of time. * Which global health security groups most impress Beth, and what they’re doing. * What new technologies could be invented to make us safer. * Whether it’s possible to help solve the problem through mass advocacy. * Much more besides. Get free, one-on-one career advice to improve biosecurity Considering a relevant grad program like a biology PhD, medicine, or security studies? Able to apply for a relevant job already? We’ve helped dozens of people plan their careers to work on pandemic preparedness and put them in touch with mentors. If you want to work on the problem discussed in this episode, you should apply for coaching: Read more

Do most meat eaters think it’s wrong to hurt animals? Do Americans think climate change is likely to cause human extinction? What is the best, state-of-the-art therapy for depression? How can we make academics more intellectually honest, so we can actually trust their findings? How can we speed up social science research ten-fold? Do most startups improve the world, or make it worse? If you’re interested in these question, this interview is for you. Click for a full transcript, links discussed in the show, etc. A scientist, entrepreneur, writer and mathematician, Spencer Greenberg is constantly working to create tools to speed up and improve research and critical thinking. These include: * Rapid public opinion surveys to find out what most people actually think about animal consciousness, farm animal welfare, the impact of developing world charities and the likelihood of extinction by various different means; * Tools to enable social science research to be run en masse very cheaply; * ClearerThinking.org, a highly popular site for improving people’s judgement and decision-making; * Ways to transform data analysis methods to ensure that papers only show true findings; * Innovative research methods; * Ways to decide which research projects are actually worth pursuing. In this interview, Spencer discusses all of these and more. If you don’t feel like listening, that just shows that you have poor judgement and need to benefit from his wisdom even more! Get free, one-on-one career advice We’ve helped hundreds of people compare their options, get introductions, and find high impact jobs. If you want to work on any of the problems discussed in this episode, find out if our coaching can help you.

What if you were in a position to give away billions of dollars to improve the world? What would you do with it? This is the problem facing Program Officers at the Open Philanthropy Project - people like Dr Nick Beckstead. Following a PhD in philosophy, Nick works to figure out where money can do the most good. He’s been involved in major grants in a wide range of areas, including ending factory farming through technological innovation, safeguarding the world from advances in biotechnology and artificial intelligence, and spreading rational compassion. Full transcript, coaching application form, overview of the conversation, and links to resources discussed in the episode: This episode is a tour through some of the toughest questions ‘effective altruists’ face when figuring out how to best improve the world, including: * * Should we mostly try to help people currently alive, or future generations? Nick studied this question for years in his PhD thesis, On the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future. (The first 31 minutes is a snappier version of my conversation with Toby Ord.) * Is clean meat (aka *in vitro* meat) technologically feasible any time soon, or should we be looking for plant-based alternatives? * What are the greatest risks to human civilisation? * To stop malaria is it more cost-effective to use technology to eliminate mosquitos than to distribute bed nets? * Should people who want to improve the future work for changes that will be very useful in a specific scenario, or just generally try to improve how well humanity makes decisions? * What specific jobs should our listeners take in order for Nick to be able to spend more money in useful ways to improve the world? * Should we expect the future to be better if the economy grows more quickly - or more slowly? Get free, one-on-one career advice We’ve helped dozens of people compare between their options, get introductions, and jobs important for the the long-run future. If you want to work on any of the problems discussed in this episode, find out if our coaching can help you.