Unhedged

Ian Smith, Senior markets correspondent at the Financial Times, analyzes currency and macro trends. He breaks down why the dollar is weakening despite US economic strength. He outlines three forces pressuring the greenback and discusses how politics, portfolio shifts and central bank signals shape currency moves. He also weighs scenarios for where the dollar might head next.

Akilah Quinio, FT U.S. banking correspondent (Wells Fargo specialist), and Joshua Franklin, FT U.S. banking editor (banking and regulation expert). They discuss Wells Fargo’s bid to become a top-five investment bank. Topics include the 2016 scandal and its aftermath, the lifted asset cap, Charlie Scharf’s dealmaking hires, balance-sheet strategies, culture clash risks, early fee wins and what moves to watch next.

They dig into a surprising jobs report and why hiring may be driven by AI data centre construction and related capex. Healthcare and construction trends get close attention. They contrast strong payrolls with weak retail sales and flag which consumers feel squeezed. They debate how AI, productivity and labour trends could shape interest rate policy and trade volatility versus sugar.

Hakyung Kim, markets journalist and commentator based in New York, explains the market frenzy around Japan’s snap election win. Short, punchy takes cover the Nikkei rally, rapid moves in JGB yields and the yen, and how repatriation and capital flows could reshape global asset prices. The conversation also touches on potential spillovers to US and European markets.

John Foley, FT Lex head who breaks down market dynamics and tech risks, and Hakyung Kim, reporter tracking consumer sentiment and surveys. They unpack the three-way mismatch between markets, data and public mood. They discuss extreme consumer pessimism, AI fears and job insecurity, odd market rotations, and quirky longs like matcha and space data centres.

Discussion of Kevin Warsh's nomination and how his past statements could shape central bank policy. Debate over his data-light, productivity-driven view of inflation and AI. Concerns about shrinking the Fed balance sheet, liquidity risks, and closer Fed-Treasury ties. A lighter trade: bullish take on theme parks and a playful short on grindcore work culture.

Discussion of why the dollar has been steadily weakening since 2017 and what that means for global returns. Debate over eroding trust in US policy, deficits and geopolitical confidence. Explanation of how currency hedging can amplify dollar moves. Examination of recent yen volatility, possible US involvement, and implications of the next Federal Reserve chair.

They break down the breathless surge in gold and silver prices and how extreme the moves have been. They question common debasement narratives and examine shifting safe-haven demand away from the dollar. Central-bank buying, supply limits and industrial use for silver get a close look. They also consider what could halt the rally, from market shocks to forced selling.

John Foley, the Lex editor at the Financial Times and a savvy market commentator, joins the discussion. They dissect how Trump's backtracking on Greenland delighted markets and explore if accommodating his antics benefits corporations. Foley and Robert Armstrong delve into the 'Taco market cycle,' demonstrating its quirky rhythm of escalation and retreat. They also debate the realistic prospects of divesting from US markets and contemplate whether Trump is losing his influence or sanity. Plus, a cheeky call to short Grønlandsbanken adds a fun twist!

As Donald Trump threatens a takeover of Greenland, Europe responds with military deployments, sending the markets into a low-key swivet. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Alphaville reporter Toby Nangle discuss what financial weapons the EU has to defend against an increasingly warlike US president. Also they go long Dutch tech company ASML and long a return to live television. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.