Unhedged What has changed?
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Apr 9, 2026 They unpack whether market rallies mean a return to pre-February 28 conditions. They explain why shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will not instantly normalize. They discuss stock and bond moves, shifting rate-cut expectations, and why US markets may outperform Europe. They note rising earnings estimates, tech resilience, and unconventional talk about de-dollarization and crypto toll ideas.
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Analysts Mark Up US Earnings Despite War
- US markets and analysts are treating the Iran shock as non-fundamental, raising earnings estimates while prices only dipped, making stocks look cheaper.
- Robert Armstrong cites Microsoft trading at ~20x earnings after analysts upped profit forecasts, signaling investor confidence in resilient US corporates.
Investors Rotating Back Into US Because Of Energy Edge
- Big institutional flows are rotating back into the US because it's a net energy exporter and less inflation sensitive than Europe.
- Katie Martin notes investors removing European overweights and preferring US exposure amid energy and inflation worries.
Bond Markets Signal Fewer Rate Cuts Ahead
- The shock from the Iran war has reset rate-cut expectations; bond markets now price fewer cuts even if central banks won't hike further.
- Robert Armstrong highlights two-year yields rising above pre-war levels as evidence of baked-in inflation risks.