China Observers

Despite Beijing’s attempts to influence the elections, Taiwan’s commitment to democracy has prevailed, and the people of Taiwan elected their new leader last week. William Lai, from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), emerged victorious in the recent presidential race. This result is likely to sustain the status quo in cross-strait relations, characterized by continued tensions and limited dialogue. Beijing’s reaction to the elections has been relatively muted compared to the massive incursions following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. However, Nauru’s announcement to sever ties with Taiwan and establish relations with Beijing came as a surprise to many. Taiwan is grappling with diminishing international recognition, struggling to keep pace with China’s dollar diplomacy. The question now is whether Taiwan can offset these losses by expanding unofficial relations with like-minded countries. This month’s guest Michael Mazza, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute and Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute. Show notes Taiwan keeps choosing democracy — and rejecting China The Axis of Disorder: How Russia, Iran, and China Want to Remake the World The Wrong Way to Lower Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

The 2024 presidential election in Taiwan holds great significance as it will determine the future of Taiwan's relationship with China, the United States, and the rest of the world. Though the West often views Taiwan's elections through the lens of cross-strait relations and the risk of Beijing's invasion, most Taiwanese voters are more concerned with domestic issues such as housing policy, low wages, and energy security. The elections will also reflect how the Taiwanese people view their national identity and sovereignty. The three candidates have different strategies for dealing with the cross-strait issues and enhancing Taiwan's global presence. Contrary to previous elections, the results remain uncertain as the race is expected to be tight. One of the significant challenges facing Taiwan is the threat of disinformation and propaganda from China, which aims to sway public opinion and undermine democracy in Taiwan. This month's guest Marcin Jerzewski, Head of Taiwan Office of the European Values Center for Security Policy and Research Fellow at Taiwan NextGen Foundation. Show notes Lithuania-Taiwan Relations: A Temperature Check Taiwan should support CEE ties Appreciating the Importance of Taiwan’s Parliamentary Diplomacy

After the honeymoon period of Czech-China relations that started in 2013, the bilateral ties gradually soured. This shift was linked to the perceived lack of benefits stemming from economic cooperation and various security-related events that gave rise to skepticism regarding the profitability and viability of closer ties with China. The current government, sworn in 2021, has been cautious towards Beijing and has worked towards improvement of ties with Taiwan. In March this year, Speaker of the Parliament Markéta Pekarová Adamová led a strong delegation to Taipei, resulting in the signing of a number of business deals and establishing cooperation between academia, and even military, and security services. The new President Petr Pavel made news for speaking over the phone with Tsai Ying-wen, who called him in January to congratulate him on his election victory. Czechia thus established itself as one of Taiwan’s best friends within the EU. This month's guest Petr Kolář, Advisor to President Petr Pavel, Senior Advisor at Squire Patton Boggs Prague.

In recent years, the US imposed a set of restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. While China’s nanoelectronics sector has been cut off from access to leading technology necessary to produce cutting-edge chips competitively, side effect of the restrictions has been China‘s growing market share in mature nodes as it doubles down on self-reliance. In face of the global chip shortage and Europe’s struggles to keep pace with the global semiconductor industry, the bloc decided to boost its own domestic chip production through the EU Chips Act. The legislation aims to strengthen the EU’s supply chain resilience and reduce geopolitical risks linked to the growing US-China tensions. While experts diverge on the consequences of a potential Taiwan contingency on the semiconductor industry, the island’s visibility has significantly increased thanks to the issue. This month's guest Mathieu Duchâtel, Resident Senior Fellow and Director of International Studies at Institut Montaigne. Show notes ⁠Semiconductors in Europe: The Return of Industrial Policy Tech Transfers: The Case for an EU-Japan-Us Cooperation Framework The Weak Links in China's Drive for Semiconductors Economic Security: the Missing Link in EU-Japan Cooperation

In September parliamentary elections, pro-Russia leftist populist SMER-SD led by former PM Robert Fico secured victory, taking the lead over the liberal Western-oriented Progressive Slovakia (PS). SMER-SD managed to form a coalition with Peter Pellegrini's HLAS-SD, a social-democratic party that split from SMER-SD, and the Slovak National Party (SNS). During his time in opposition, Fico has undergone a radical transformation, emerging as a strong Eurosceptic and critic of the US. Many fear that Fico will shift the country’s foreign policy towards the East while aligning with Orbán on approach towards both Beijing and Moscow. This month's guest Nikoleta Nemečkayová, Analyst at the Association for International Affairs (AMO). Show notes Setting on an East-Bound Course? Slovak Political Parties’ Views on China and Russia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a momentum for Georgia to become a major transit hub as both the EU and China are looking to diversify their trade routes away from Russia. Over the past decade, Tbilisi and Beijing have deepened their economic ties. At the end of July 2023, China and Georgia announced an upgrade in bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. While China is seeking to expand its presence in the South Caucusus, Tbilisi might be using the partnership with China to grant concessions from Brussels ahead of the EU's decision on the country's candidacy for membership. This month's guest Emil Avdaliani, Professor of International Relations at European University in Tbilisi. Show notes New World Order and Small Regions: The Case of South Caucasus China, Russia and New Eurasian Order China Still Ambivalent About the Middle Corridor

China’s tacit approval for the Russian invasion of Ukraine is significantly shaping both the Polish public opinion on China as well as the political and business elite's perception of China. Although views still diverge among different actors and political parties. Geopolitical shifts underway with the US and China also played a role in shaping Sino-Polish relations. Furthermore, the growing perception that NATO’s eastern flank as a theater of war and East Asian geopolitical theaters are merging constitutes a source of concern for Warsaw. This month's guest Alicja Bachulska, Research Fellow at CHOICE and Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Show notes Breaking the Mold: Poland Changes Course on China Policy Amid War in Ukraine The China-Russia Power Play China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world Recent Polling Uncovers the Blind Spots in the European China Debate

China is among the biggest global importers of all the Western Balkans extractive exports. China’s interest in the region's extractive and raw materials industries is related to its overall need for certain raw materials as they are crucial in supporting the country's manufacturing sector, fueling economic growth, and supporting technological advancements across various industries. While exports and investments in the extractive sector do help the local economies, the overreliance on extractive exports from polluting industries, which deplete natural resources and have a low value-added component in the bilateral trade relationship, is a reason for concern. Moreover, some Chinese projects seem to exploit structural weaknesses related to rule of law and good governance, as seen especially in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. This Month’s Guest Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow at CHOICE, President at ESTIMA. Show notes “Win Some, Lose Some”: China’s Involvement in the Extractive and Raw Materials Industries in the Western Balkans

China's special diplomatic mission is touring Kyiv, Warsaw, Paris, Berlin and Moscow in a stated mission to search for a political solution to the war in Ukraine. However, a number of Central and Eastern European leaders have expressed doubts about China's credibility as a peacemaker. This has been further exacerbated by the recent diplomatic scandal of Lu Shaye who questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet countries. Just a few days after the Chinese ambassador's controversial interview, Xi Jinping spoke with Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time since the beginning of the invasion. China’s position on the war in Ukraine as well as the Sino-Russian partnership has been under increased scrutiny and will remain the main factor shaping the relations between China and Europe. This Month's Guest Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Research Fellow at CHOICE, Head of the Political Science PhD programme and China Studies Centre at Riga Stradins University, Head of the Asia Programme at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs Show notes Perfect Imbalance: China and Russia Backing Russia on Ukraine: China’s Messaging in Central and Eastern Europe Speaking Whose Mind? Why the Consequences of Lu Shaye’s Comments Go Beyond the Baltics “Depends on How You Look at It”: Russia Struggles to Explain Why “Power of Siberia 2” Is Still Not Happening

Recently, Honduras broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan opening the door to establishing official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. Taiwan thus lost a ninth diplomatic ally since the current President, Tsai Ing-wen, came to power in 2016, leaving the island state with only 13 sovereign official partners. While Taiwan's international recognition is shrinking, its parliamentary diplomatic ties with like-minded partners are burgeoning. In March, Taiwan welcomed the largest-ever Czech delegation to the island led by the Czech Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies and US House Speaker McCarthy became the highest US official to meet with a Taiwanese leader on domestic soil since Washington established formal diplomatic ties with China in 1979. A new model for Taiwan's engagement with the world is thus in the shaping. This Month's Guest Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Assistant Professor at the National Dong Hwa University in Hualien, Affiliated Scholar at the Department of Political Science of the Free University of Brussels, Head of the Associate Network at 9DASHLINE, Research Fellow at ISDP in Sweden and at Taiwan Next Gen Foundation in Taiwan. Show notes Unpacking Beijing’s Narrative on Taiwan Taiwan in the European Discourse: Toward Political Consensus? Parliamentary Diplomacy to Boost the Resilience of EU-Taiwan Ties 'It is in the EU's own interest to contribute to Taiwan's democratic resilience'