China Observers

North Korean regime has increasingly benefited from deepening cooperation with Russia, a development not fully welcomed by its traditional ally, China. North Korea has supplied the Russian Federation with munitions and other military equipment in exchange for food, raw materials, and components for weapons manufacturing. This growing partnership enables North Korea to circumvent international sanctions, sustain its regime, and bolster its military capabilities, further complicating regional and global security dynamics.  This month's guest Dr. Niklas Swanström, Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy Show notes EU-Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Resilience amid the Digital and Green Transition China as a Mediator in North Korea: Facilitating Dialogues or Mediating Conflicts? Why Taiwan Matters to Europe EU-Japan-Taiwan Cooperation: Building a Blue Supply Chain

The European Union's engagement in the Indo-Pacific has grown significantly in recent years, driven by the region's strategic importance and economic dynamism. The EU aims to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific through enhanced cooperation with regional partners like Japan, India, and ASEAN. Moreover, it has become increasingly clear that Europe and Asia are not separate theatres but are deeply intertwined. This month's guest Abigaël Vasselier, Head of Program Foreign Relations at MERICS. Show notes China-Russia alignment: a threat to Europe's security Navigating Taiwan relations in 2024: Practical considerations for European policy makers Profiling relations of European countries with China

In recent years, we have seen increased tensions in the Taiwan Strait. China has intensified its military drills around the island and increased coercive tactics against Taiwan, sparking debates about a potential contingency. Discussions revolve around whether Beijing might choose a blockade or a full-scale invasion to alter the status quo. The role of the U.S. and the EU will be crucial in maintaining stability in the Strait and deterring China from making unilateral changes to the current situation. This month's guest Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program. Show notes Why UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 Does Not Establish Beijing’s “One China” Principle: A Legal Perspective Taiwan's Most Pressing Challenge is Strangulation, Not Invasion Transcript: Situation in the Taiwan Strait

NATO's growing interest in the Indo-Pacific region has stemmed from the Alliance's recognition of the strategic implications of China's rise. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has underscored the growing geopolitical interdependence between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. That is why NATO has strengthened dialogue and cooperation with its partners in the Indo-Pacific region – Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea and New Zealand and NATO members have increased their presence in the region. This month's guest Prof. Dr. May-Britt U. Stumbaum, Professor of Security Studies and Strategic Competition at the George C. Marshall Center and Director of The SPEAR Institute. Show notes ⁠L’impact de la polarisation entre la Chine et les États-Unis dans l’espace indopacifique : le point de vue de la Chine⁠ ⁠HOE DE EUROPESE DEMOCRATIE TE WAPENEN TEGEN CHINA⁠ ⁠China’s power politics 2.0: Regime survival and global leadership⁠ ⁠War By Narrative?⁠

Australia has been a prominent target of China's foreign interference. Beijing has been involved in various covert operations, including cyber espionage, attempts to infiltrate local politics, and efforts to sway public opinion through media and social platforms. Chinese government-linked entities have been accused of leveraging Chinese student associations to promote Beijing's agenda. Hacker groups associated with Beijing have carried out attacks against the computer networks of the Parliament and the three main political parties, as well as individual MPs who are part of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC). Furthermore, an Australian politician was offered a financial contribution in exchange for changing their stance on China-related issues. These activities aim to undermine Australia's sovereignty, democratic institutions, and strategic interests. In response, the Australian government passed legislation criminalizing foreign interference and introduced the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme. Despite these efforts, the challenge of countering China's sophisticated and persistent tactics persists. This month’s guest Justin Bassi, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Show notes Dialogue with China’s Premier Li was a missed opportunity Stabilising relations with China mustn’t come at the expense of Australia’s security Collective consistency is the answer to Beijing’s trade coercion Time for the Quad to bare its teeth on regional security

Gregor Sebastian, an EU-China relations expert, discusses the EU's investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, potential retroactive tariffs, and Beijing's response. He also dives into Chinese carmakers BYD and Geely investing in EV production in Central Europe, sparking concerns in the European automotive industry.

In early May, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to France to celebrate the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and France. This visit, his first to Europe since the pandemic began, occurred against the backdrop of the EU investigation into Chinese electric vehicle exports and Beijing’s retaliatory probe into imports of French-made brandy. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, participated in the tripartite meeting, adding a European dimension to the discussions. The leaders jointly urged Xi to tackle issues related to China’s overcapacity in electric vehicles and green technologies and addressed the issue of China’s export of dual-use technologies to Russia. Despite raising these concerns, the two sides concluded 32 agreements during the visit. Xi then continued his European tour to Serbia and Hungary, where he sought to strengthen ties, a move perceived by some as an attempt to create divisions within Europe. This month’s guest Abigaël Vasselier, Director Policy & European Affairs/Head of Program Foreign Relations at Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). Show notes ⁠China’s Missing Offer to Europe ahead of the EU-China Summit “Sur la Russie, le message de Xi Jinping à l’Occident est très clair”

While it is true that China has served as a crucial economic support for Russia during the war in Ukraine, it has not fully compensated for the decline in Russian export revenue from the EU. Beijing has supplied Moscow with dual-use goods and technology but there has been no direct provision of lethal military equipment from China to Russia, as the Chinese government and businesses are wary of triggering Western secondary sanctions and losing access to the European market. Thus, It is unlikely that the Chinese government and defense companies will substantially support Russia with heavy weaponry and ammunition in its ongoing conflict against Ukraine. One reason for China holding back is the nuanced and cautious attitude of its foreign policy elites on Russia’s war. This month’s guest Dr Thomas Eder, Visiting Fellow at China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE), Post-Doc Researcher at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs (oiip). Show notes ⁠Will China Save Russia’s Military in 2023? – Chinese Expert Debates on China-Russia Relations and the Long War in Ukraine⁠ ⁠Chinese Approaches to the Eastern Neighborhood⁠ ⁠Moscow’s Failed Pivot to China⁠ ⁠China-Russia Relations in Central Asia

In the past few years, Hungary has seen a surge in new investments from Chinese companies in the EV industry. Chinese battery and EV makers have been attracted by the favorable political climate and generous state support. Additionally, Hungary and China have been working towards closer collaboration in the areas of policing and security. During a recent visit by China's Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong, the two countries signed a series of agreements aimed at improving cooperation in these areas. This will allow Chinese police to patrol alongside Hungarian police on Hungarian soil. As a result of these developments, Hungary is increasingly becoming a hub of Chinese influence in the region. In the past, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been accused of acting as a trojan horse for China within the EU, as he has opposed measures aimed at China. With Hungary's growing dependency on China, this trend is likely to continue. This month’s guest Szabolcs Panyi, Investigative Editor at the VSquare Project. Show notes Goulas: Tales of Spying, Smuggling, and Chinese Influence Hungary Could Turn into China's Trojan Horse in Europe The Fight Over Fudan: A Chinese University in Budapest Sparks Reckoning for Sino-Hungarian Relations

In January 2024, the European Commission revealed five new initiatives aimed at advancing the implementation of its Economic Security Strategy, which was formally introduced in the summer of the previous year. The proposal seeks to tighten inbound investment screening rules and create greater export control conformity within the EU. With regard to outbound investment screening, which is the most controversial issue of the package, the Commission remains relatively sober. The strategy calls for a risk assessment of outbound investment and related security issues through a public consultation process. The package puts a strong focus on research security. However, there is little that can be done at the EU level since the competencies are mainly spread among national, sub-national, and institutional levels in the Member States. While the package aims to scale up dual-use and advanced research, it lacks a financial strategy to strengthen the bloc’s technological and industrial capabilities. This month’s guest Tobias Gehrke, Senior Policy Fellow at the Global European Council on Foreign Relations. Show notes A maker, not a taker: Why Europe needs an economic security mechanism The power of control: How the EU can shape the new era of strategic export restrictions High-voltage trade: How Europe should fight the electric vehicle wars Missing money: Why Europe’s economic security requires a critical technology investment plan Strategy and risk: How to make the Green Deal Industrial Plan a geoeconomic success