BiggerPockets Daily

Offices across the country are still sitting empty. The nationwide office vacancy rate reached a high of about 20% in the first quarter of 2023, according to JLL, and while big tech companies are pressuring workers to return to the office, the hybrid work model has led to an increase in commercial office delinquencies. According to Trepp, a real estate analytics firm, the office delinquency rate surged 125 basis points in May to over 4%. This spells trouble for the commercial real estate market and the broader economy, according to some experts. Analysts at Morgan Stanley are predicting a decline in commercial property values of up to 40%, a crash akin to the 2008 financial crisis. Fred Cordova, CEO of Corion Enterprises, believes the crash is already underway. But while most firms agree the office sector is under stress, some are more optimistic than others about the outcome for commercial real estate. For example, UBS Global Wealth Management asserts the problem is manageable, and a crash resembling 2008 isn’t likely.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We all hate market meltdowns, and this one was bound to happen. We just didn’t know when, exactly how, or how bad things would get. But we now know the answer to the first two of these three questions.  When? Currently underway. How? See below. How bad? No one knows. The purpose of this article is to explore what led up to the unfolding meltdown of what is happening now. Then, based on the 10 items I consider below, investors can draw conclusions about what may happen next and how bad this could get.  Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that thousands of investors lost millions of dollars in a series of multifamily deals. The article highlights a mid-level Dallas IT worker who built a 7,000-unit multifamily portfolio in just four years. Unfortunately, he lost 3,200 units to his lender in Q1, defaulting on $229 million in debt and losing a boatload of syndicated investor capital.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Another famous name is weighing in on the housing market. A few weeks ago, it was Elon Musk claiming that home values would plummet as commercial real estate faced headwinds. Now, it’s Barbara Corcoran—albeit a more experienced source when it comes to real estate—touting the opposite.The statements came in a recent interview Corcoran did with Fox Business’s Liz Claman. “There’s no relationship between the commercial and the residential,” Corcoran told her. “The residential is starting to rebound, but the commercial is in trouble.”“So Elon’s wrong?” Claman asked.“Of course he’s wrong,” Corcoran said. “Yet again.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The record-breaking rent growth of the last several years is showing signs of fading. Earlier this month, Redfin reported that rent growth slid 0.6% on a year-over-year basis for the first time since the pandemic. This is, of course, a modest decline in rents, but it begs the question: will there be a bigger correction or even a crash in rents? Or is it possible that rent growth will pick back up in the coming years? Let’s dig in. Where Rent Growth StandsWhen we talk about rent growth in the U.S., the normal situation is for rent growth to be around or slightly higher than the pace of inflation. During the 2010s, most markets had an average annual rent growth of 3-5%. But during the pandemic, as we all know, this changed, and rent growth peaked at around 17.5% on a national basis, with some individual markets seeing annual rent growth top 30%. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real estate investors want to avoid unnecessary taxation, and while there are many clever ways to reduce your effective tax rate, it can be difficult to simultaneously achieve robust asset protection. That’s because accountants and attorneys each have knowledge gaps that prevent them from seeing the full picture, according to Riley Neilson, real estate investment manager and founder of Flying ‘N’ Group. His business brings together lawyers and CPAs to help his clients achieve the delicate balance between minimal taxation and maximum asset protection. Liability lawsuits against businesses are increasing in number and severity year-over-year, with businesses now spending an average of $1.2 million each year to counter litigation. Mom-and-pop real estate businesses are not immune, even those that do everything by the book, work to reduce risks and never cause intentional harm.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commercial real estate is melting down fast. Home values next.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2023That’s what Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk tweeted last week in response to a stream of tweets from venture capitalist David Sacks.In that series, Sacks claimed that Fed rate hikes and the increased borrowing costs they led to are causing a slew of problems in the financial world, including a soon-to-be crash in commercial real estate.That latter part could certainly be possible. In fact, JPMorgan estimates that nearly $450 billion in commercial real estate debt could go into default this year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management forecasts a 40% peak-to-trough decline in CRE prices, increasing the risk of default even further.Does that mean a similar drop in home values is coming, too? Let’s take a look. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is it still possible to find undervalued commercial real estate investments? I believe it is, and I’ll prove it by telling you a remarkable story about a recent investment we made in a Nevada self-storage opportunity.  We’re in a Transitioning MarketWe are in a time of transition. From a booming market to a shaky market. From historically low interest rates to the highest we’ve seen in years. From eager buyers, sometimes willing to overpay, to sidelined buyers, waiting to see where the falling knife lands.  Great cash-flowing deals have gotten hard to find. And with higher interest and cap rates, even harder to pencil. Times like this require more due diligence than usual and a dedicated acquisition team turning over every stone.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

According to a recent report by Fannie Mae, there are concerns about the housing market. The U.S. housing market has experienced some ebbs and flows this year, but it’s undoubtedly been in correction mode. With elevated interest rates and tightening lending practices, Fannie Mae is forecasting a “modest” recession with a soft landing starting in the second half of 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal eviction moratoriums lasted nearly 18 months, from early 2020 through late August 2021. Even after the federal eviction moratorium ended, many cities and states continued preventing landlords from enforcing their lease contracts. Some cities went so far as to use federal tax dollars to give free legal aid to tenants to fight lawful evictions long after moratoriums ended. And that’s even after taxpayers paid for nearly 10 million rent assistance payments, albeit months after it did many landlords any good.  But that’s behind us, right? Never to happen again? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commercial real estate is facing a lot of stress. Many analysts and investors, including myself, expect to see significant value declines across much of the sector in the coming year. But one particular type of commercial real estate is facing the biggest crash potential of all: office space. And even if you don’t currently invest in office space, the future of this huge asset class will have large implications for the broader real estate market and the economy as a whole.The idea that the office market may crash makes sense on a logical level, as more people are working from home, but from a data perspective—it looks even worse. Since 2019, net absorption, a crucial indicator that measures the balance of supply and demand for office space, has turned starkly negative. In this time frame, tenants have given up a whopping 140 million square feet. 25 million of that lost square footage has come in 2023, so there’s no sign of slowing down. In fact, evidence points to this horror show continuing, with another 67M square feet of new supply projected to come online this year—that’s the most new office space coming online since 2009. So there is a huge glut of supply flooding the market, and it’s happening at the worst possible time—when demand is declining.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices