Commercial real estate is facing a lot of stress. Many analysts and investors, including myself, expect to see significant value declines across much of the sector in the coming year. But one particular type of commercial real estate is facing the biggest crash potential of all: office space. And even if you don’t currently invest in office space, the future of this huge asset class will have large implications for the broader real estate market and the economy as a whole.

The idea that the office market may crash makes sense on a logical level, as more people are working from home, but from a data perspective—it looks even worse.

Since 2019, net absorption, a crucial indicator that measures the balance of supply and demand for office space, has turned starkly negative. In this time frame, tenants have given up a whopping 140 million square feet. 25 million of that lost square footage has come in 2023, so there’s no sign of slowing down. In fact, evidence points to this horror show continuing, with another 67M square feet of new supply projected to come online this year—that’s the most new office space coming online since 2009. So there is a huge glut of supply flooding the market, and it’s happening at the worst possible time—when demand is declining.

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1025 - The Biggest Crash Imaginable is Coming For Commercial Assets by Dave Meyer