Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says inflation has started to roll over, and once the Federal Reserve pivots away from tough talk about fighting inflation he expects the market to move higher. Kelly says that opportunity is coming in "months or quarters rather than years," meaning that opportunity is around the corner and making this a good time to put money to work. Kelly says he is overweight "the bottom 490" of the Standard & Poor's 500, value stocks and international investing, with an emphasis on Europe. Talking technical analysis, Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report, says he expects a weak market through the mid-term election and while he notes that 2023 is poised to be a better year -- as it is the third year in a presidential election cycle, historically a good one -- he's short the market now, expecting a "better bottom" in December once the market digests the election results. Also on the show, Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, discusses the latest Policy Survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, noting that economists -- who normally struggle to agree on any opinion -- have reached an unusual consensus that the economy will or has entered a recession, but that the slowdown will be mild and short.

David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that while Robinhood Markets is down about 80 percent from its 52-week high and that it has room to go a lot lower, having burned through $3.5 billion in cash in the last 12 months, with just more than that amount left in cash on the books. Trainer put the company back into The Danger Zone, saying "We're really not sure what is going to prop this zombie stock up much longer ... '' even as "it is priced as if it is going to go to the moon." Also on the show, Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp., discusses the state of the housing market, noting that homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages aren't feeling the pinch of inflation, while homebuyers are being squeezed hard by it and home-sellers are watching markets change rapidly. Fleming thinks mortgage rates have "mostly found their new normal," noting that current levels of between 5 and 6 percent are in line with historic norms even if they are dramatically higher than consumers have been used to for the last decade or more. Chuck answers a listener's question about what to do with some cash now, and portfolio manager Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund makes his debut on the show, talking stocks in the Market Call.

Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull.com, says he that the market has rallied to a point where he is looking to take money off the table on the upside and starting to get short anticipating that areas like technology that have rallied the most off the lows are due for a fall as the current bear market rally starts to falter. Bishop acknowledges that he might be early, but he'd rather be ahead of the rally ending than riding it down. Also on the show, Roxanna Islam, associate director of research at VettaFi, discusses the construction of indexes of closed-end funds and the benefits to using them over individual issues, Milind Mehere, chief executive officer at Yieldstreet, discusses the current state of the U.S. housing market, and Juan Pablo Villamarin, senior investment analyst at Intercontinental Wealth Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Huckstep, chief investment officer at Advyzon Investment Management, says that he believes the economy has enough going for it that there will not be a recession, but he expects interest rates to keep rising which will be bad for the long-term bond market, leaving opportunities for outperformance in shorter-term corporate bonds and levered loans. In the Market Call interview, Huckstep says he also believes value investing is due for its time in the sun now, delivering higher expected returns than the growth style. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a big fund that invests in preferred securities his ETF of the Week, noting that it can diversify a fixed-income portfolio and goose returns now, and in The Big Interview, Christopher Mizer, founder of Vivaris Capital, discusses investing in alternatives and using assets like life settlements and medical receivables as part of structured products that try to protect against declines while still offering a decent upside in all conditions.

Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund -- who will stay in cash when he can't find stocks cheap enough to meet his metrics for good value -- says that the market's decline in early 2022 put a lot more stocks onto his radar as prospective buys, but he says the market remains expensive as a whole. In The Big Interview, Stan Majcher, portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management, says that the energy market -- the one sector of the market that was up during the first half of the year -- remains attractive after its recent run up and despite market pressures created by war in Ukraine and global supply-chain issues. He believes oil remains significantly underpriced, giving strong potential for the sector to keep rolling for the foreseeable future despite the likelihood of a global recession. Also on the show, Sarah Foster discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey showing that consumers who are influenced into purchases by social media have a high -- and increasing -- level of regrets over their spending decisions.

John Blank, chief economist and chief investment strategist for Zacks Investment Research, says that the limited options facing Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell leave the economy in a situation where inflation will be sticky and the market will be more stable but likely more sideways, at least until pricing pressure eases. "The soft landing isn't what's going to happen," Blank says. "The Fed's going to get comfortable with a higher level of prices and rice inflation and just stop because it can't do anything about this." Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the market's technicals are showing that recent gains are more likely a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull market, largely because there hasn't been much breadth and support to the gains. Until the rally reflects greater participation -- with fewer companies making new lows -- Jonson says the current move up is likely a temporary one. And Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation and investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute kicks things off talking about how the 60-40 portfolio is alive and well despite an awful start to the year that could hold up and make this one of the worst years ever for that classic balanced approach to investing.

Laura Geritz, founder and portfolio manager at Rondure Global Advisors, says that deglobalization of markets is making it more important than ever that investors pick great stocks at reasonable prices, focusing more on the company-by-company picture than looking at the macro outlook. Another part of that change in mindset is that investors might want to sell into the market's rally, which has been driving up prices of riskier assets, rather than looking at every downturn as a chance to try to buy the next rebound. In a wide-ranging interview, Geritz also makes a case for China's stock market -- which she calls "out-of-sync with the rest of the world" -- being poised for a big recovery while the rest of the globe struggles through inflation problems. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Door Dash in "The Danger Zone" and explains why he believes the stock has a lot further to fall, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab discusses the firm's latest survey of active traders and how its clients are reacting to shifting market conditions but prolonged inflation, and Chris Mack of Harding Loevner Global Equity fund talks stocks in the Market Call.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that the Federal Reserve has been "clueless," making moves that have actually been inflationary, making it more costly for companies to do business and having companies pass those costs on to consumers. That has created an environment with an inverted yield curve and a coming recession. With that said, Doty says the worst is largely over for the bond market, but that the stock market will suffer next year when the current relief rally ends . Doty appears in two segments today, also doing The NAVigator segment, talking about how closed-end funds are an ideal tool for current market conditions and how average investors who understand closed-end funds about 80 percent should take the leap of faith to go the rest of the way. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund talks about value investing.

Sebastien Page, head of global multi-asset/chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that while inflation has peaked, it will remain sticky as it returns to more normal levels. The strategic, long-term takeaway is to remain invested, but Page says that the tactical moves investors should be making now involve playing "aggressive defense," underweighting stocks relative to bonds, underweighting Treasury bonds and overweighting cash and bank loans now. Internationally, he favors emerging markets and is light on Europe. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, looks at a new fund from VanEck focused on collateralized loan obligations as a means of diversifying bond portfolios, and Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments talks value investing in the Market Call.

Josef Schuster, chief executive officer at IPOX Schuster -- which builds indexes of initial public offerings around the world -- says that the IPO market has suffered along with the rest of the stock market, but it is poised for a rebound because companies must size up the cost of delaying an offering during a market slowdown versus the heightened costs of borrowing money to fund continuing operations. He says the current IPO market reminds him of conditions from roughly 20 years ago after the bursting of the Internet bubble. Also on the show, Dan Griffith of Huntington Private Bank discusses the private equity markets and how they have performed -- and are likely to do moving forward -- relative to the stock and bond markets, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, talks about the publication's latest survey on investor optimism, and Chuck answers a listener's question about breaking up a family estate.