Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Legendary investor and noted philanthropist David Rubenstein of The Carlyle Group says that today's inflation feels like the 1970s, a time that taught investors that it is hard to get inflation out of the system. That has left the economy "treading water," trying to get comfortable with how the situation will play out before it can move forward; in the interim he expects low econnimc growth stopping short of recession, inflation that heads down but not all the way to the Fed's 2 percent, target, with war in Ukraine being a significant economic wildcard. In a wide-ranging interview, Rubenstein talks about whether politics now creates economic headwinds and how the money in politics is furthering the divides, about modern philanthropy and the satisfaction of giving, about happily speeding up in retirement, and more. Gwen Merz, the blogger behind FieryMillennials.com talks about her changing financial journey, one which saw her start as a hardcore member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) crowd, but which now has her more relaxed about her finances and, as a result, happier and more content with her life. Also, Chuck answers a question from the audience about the Gerber Grow-Up Plan, which he made a "Stupid Investment of the Week" when he started that column roughly 20 years ago, which he felt was still putrid when he stopped writing the column a decade later, and which he thinks remains horrid now, but which will keep attracting suckers -- and we don't mean pacifiers -- for as long as families have babies.

Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar Inc., says that recession-proofing your portfolio and making it inflation-resistant requires different actions, but the biggest similarity to both processes is that investors need a plan that they can ride out until conditions improve. She notes that flip-flopping on strategy -- more than following flawed strategies -- leads investors astray. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about how the mortgage market and banking industry are responding to rising interest rates, noting that mortgage refinancing applications have hit their lowest level in more than two decades, and that savings yields have improved in the financial sector's response to the rising-rate, high-inflation environment. And in the Market Call, Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, talks about his firm's quant-active strategy and how he mixes the art and science to deal with a market that has little or no momentum going for it.

Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Private Bank at Bank of America, expects heightened volatility with the market mostly flat until the point when the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is about to end, at which point "markets will swing back toward the green. ... The sooner Jay Powell gets it done, the better for the markets and the better for equities." Looking at the market's technical's, Matt Harris -- chief investment officer for The Hausberg Group -- agrees that volatility "is here to stay" until there is some signal that the market trend is changing. Harris says he will not be surprised if the market crashes through two support levels to retest the June lows, though he expects it will be a decline that occurs slowly and with a lot of volatility/movement in the interim. Also on the show, Josh Duitz of the Abrdn Global Infrastructure Income says that the macro drivers for infrastructure -- globalization, upgrades and repairs, urbanization and increased demand -- coupled with current inflationary pressures have created an environment that is solid for recession-resistant infrastructure stocks. Plus, in the Market Call, John Mowrey, chief investment officer at NFJ Investment Group, discusses global value investing.

Joe Terranova -- widely known on Wall Street as 'Joe T.' -- chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says that the stock market and economy are not going through the kind of short, sharp downturn-recovery pattern investors have grown used to this century, but that time will resolve the issues making it so that investors with the time to ride it out -- and favoring companies with strong fundamentals -- will be rewarded for their patience. For the second week in a row, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, picks a core growth-oriented fund as his ETF of the Week, noting that the times call for a focus on the core investment positions right now. And in the Market Call, James Abate, manager of the Centre American Select Equity and Centre Global Infrastructure Fund -- which sit atop their Morningstar peer groups for year-to-date performance -- says that "Flat is the new up," and discusses how he has stayed ahead of the market.

Alan Gayle, president at Via Nova Investment Management, says that while he is optimistic that Europe and other global markets will see a strong recovery in the future, until that happens -- likely sometime next year -- he prefers to be invested in the United States, despite the struggles of markets here. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Gayle calls the current environment "exceptionally complicated," noting that recessionary forces are held at bay by a strong job market and flush consumers, and he expects those forces to make it so that a downturn or decline won't turn into "a full-blown recession." Also on the show, Ira Rothberg, portfolio manager of the Hennessy Focus Fund, discusses the benefits and challenges of concentrating portfolio decisions in volatile market conditions, Craig Lazzara of S&P Dow Jones Indices discusses Tuesday's release of the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and how it shows that home prices nationally remain way up from last year even as they have started to pull back from recent peaks, and Catherine Collinson discusses the latest research from the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, showing how employers have changed their offerings coming out of the pandemic.

David Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that the market is likely to continue along a volatile path as it looks for resolution from today's headline risks, and he notes that investors need to mitigate risks and position themselves less to profit now than for the future point when the market comes out of the doldrums and starts its next real climb to a bull market. Jilek noted that the relationship between asset classes -- most notably stocks and bonds which moved alarmingly downward in lockstep at the beginning of the year -- may be changed for the foreseeable future, forcing investors to reconsider their allocations even while they are treading water waiting for better times ahead. In the Talking Technicals segment, Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says investors have to "play everything light," not sitting on the sidelines but not running the full playbook, noting that he thinks investors will be happy a year from now but may have to go through a lot of pain in the interim. Plus, author Greg Steinmetz discusses his new book, "American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street's Biggest Fortune," and compares his protagonist to some of today's modern day corporate giants.

Moe Ansari, chief investment officer at Compak Asset Management and the long-time host of "Market Wrap with Moe," joins Chuck for the most unusual Market Call interview in the history of Money Life, calling out the culture of stock picks and the way audiences use them. In The Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, talks about why pet-food retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock, burning through its cash to where bankruptcy could be on the horizon within two years. Plus, Matt Zajechowski discusses a recent survey showing that consumers want to travel but don't like what they are facing as they hit the road, and Chuck answers an audience member's question about "actively passive" investing.

Clyde McGregor, long-time manager of the Oakmark Equity and Income fund, says he is "suspicious" of the market's recent rally after valuations didn't get low enough during the bear market to sound the all-clear on trouble. That is one key issue to investing now, McGregor says, with the bigger concern being that current conditions are different than in the past, most notably with changes in the relationship between interest rates and inflation; while certain elements rhyme with various times in the past, McGregor says the current conditions make it hard to make sense of the market now. Talking technicals, Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst for StockCharts.com, says he thinks the bear-market rally has ended and the market has started a new leg down. Also on the show, Kenneth Burdon, an attorney with Skadden Arps, talks about a recent Delaware law change that's designed to protect investors in closed-end funds and Gabriela Herculano, chief executive officer, iClima Earth talks stocks and ESG investing in the Market Call.

Eddy Vataru, chief investment officer for total return at Osterweis Capital Management, says that investors are thinking wishfully that the Federal Reserve can play with interest rates and inflation to engineer a soft landing for the economy, but he believes any scenario where the Fed is not hiking rates until inflation drops to their target of 2 percent is too rosy. He says the Fed will be as hawkish as possible, trying to set market expectations about rising rates while hoping to engineer a soft landing, but notes that such a smooth outcome is unlikely, and that inflation woes will not end quickly. Also on the show, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy for S&P Global, discusses the sectors that currently are adding to portfolio diversification -- and playing defense -- and those that are just adding to portfolio volatility, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a classic, core growth-oriented fund his ETF of the Week, and Boston Globe staff writer Rob Weisman discusses his recent trip to the Netherlands to see the way they provide long-term care for their growing elderly population and what America could learn from their actions.

Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management says that emerging markets investors are trying to decide if the next 10 years will be as flat and troubled as the last decade, and he says that despite prominent, key headline risks, China and emerging markets have plenty of promise now, and should turn out to be better over the next 10 years than they were over the last 10. Jayaraman says if forced to invest in just one emerging market country, his pick would be South Korea, but he thinks that China and others are well-positioned to make progress once the global inflation crisis eases. Daniel Strachman, managing partner at A&C Advisors and the author of "Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land of Bulls and Bears," discusses the legendary hedge fund manager and what made him one of the most influential and unique forces ever in money management; Robertson passed away Tuesday at age 90. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com; @tedrossman; @creditcardscom