Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report says that there's a disconnect between the messages being sent by market and economic fundamentals and technicals, with the technical indicators turning bullish despite longer-term economic data sending bearish signs. As a result, Arora says investors should expect significant volatility and should put more money into the short-term technicals to take advantage of the back-and-forth even as they become more conservative in their long-term investments. Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge.com, echoed Arora's take on improving technicals, noting that until something changes in those indicators, 'We rally to resistance.' Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's research into the record percentage of Americans who say they can't afford to pay a $1,000 emergency bill without going into debt. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at the Jacob Funds talks about early-stage, high-growth investing in technology and small-cap stocks.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market is likely to close the month having achieved the 'January trifecta,' which is a Santa Claus rally (over the last five trading days of the old year and first two of the new), plus a positive January barometer -- where January's results set a trend for the year -- and then the 'first five days early warning system,' which holds that if the first five trading days of the year are up the full year's results have been positive more than 80 percent of the time. With two of those three indicators set and the third likely to be confirmed when the month ends tomorrow, Hirsch notes that his firm has upped its 2023 outlook to a 'best case scenario' for above-average pre-election year gains of 15 to 20 percent. If there's a surprise, Hirsch says, it is that the projection would be too low. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2022 'Planning and Progress Study,' which shows that Generation Z has big hopes for retiring younger than its older cohorts, a notion that will be tough to pull off; David Trainer of New Constructs puts Opendoor in the Danger Zone, noting that its a zombie stock that could run out of money before the end of the summer, and author Mark Miller chats about his latest book, Retirement Reboot, and how savings strapped pre-retirees can regain control of their financial future.

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that while the headlines and fundamentals are making investors nervous, there has been a shift to the positive in technical market measures, which he believes are starting to show signs of a market bottom and turn that has him bullish on the potential for a good year. Samuelson lays out a number of different technical reasons for optimism and says they turned quickly in the fall and early winter noting, for example, that 81 percent of global indices are now above their 200-day, long-term trend -- versus only 10 percent in October -- which shows that this 'has a lot of the underpinnings of the cusp of a new bull market.' In The Big Interview, Scott Lynn, founder and chief executive at Masterworks -- which created a marketplace for shares in works of art -- discusses the fine-art market, how it weathered the storm of the market's downturn in 2022 and why investors might turn to it for diversification now. Plus, Eric Purington of the abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund says in The NAVigator segment that private infrastructure investments -- and particularly middle-market opportunities, which have been being snapped up by larger operators -- offer a path to stability, diversification and enhanced returns now. And in the Market Call, hedge-fund manager Mina Tadrus, chief executive at Tadrus Capital discusses quantitative, risk-measured investing in exchange-traded funds.

Phillip Wool, head of research for Rayliant Global Advisors, says that investors who expect the U.S. economy to weaken or to suffer the effects of inflation for longer will find that emerging markets are more compelling than domestic markets in 2023, and he finds China particularly interesting as it pivots to a growth stance coming out of a Covid lockdown and reversing insular policies of the last few years. In a wide ranging Big Interview segment, Wool talks about how he is worried that private investments -- both equity and credit -- are headed for liquidity problems that could hamstring investors who are not expecting the whipsaw that comes when hard-to-value securities must be sold into a down market to meet redemption demand. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi celebrates 'the granddaddy' of exchange-traded funds with his ETF of the Week, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's annual survey of checking-account fees, and Jim Cullen, chief executive officer at Schaefer Cullen Capital Management -- appearing in the Market Call for the first time -- talks small cap stocks and long-term value investing.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that he expects a modest slowdown and mild recession that is short-lived and shallow, and that the economy will show resilience in rebounding from that, but he notes that the following recovery will be equally mild and modest. Also on the show, Emily Brandon talks about a U.S. News and World Report survey showing that consumers are cutting back on retirement savings in the face of inflation and day-to-day cost-of-living increases, Megan Moncrief of travel insurance portal Squaremouth discusses how travellers can protect themselves against potential pilot strikes and events like the recent Southwest Airlines breakdown, and David Wagner, portfolio manager for Aptus Capital Advisors and the Aptus actively managed exchange-traded funds covers stocks in the Market Call.

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says the economy is going through a series of rotating, mini-recessions affecting certain industries, which will lead to a modest recession in the middle of the year, but once but that happens he expects interest rates to start falling, inflation to keep slowing and the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle, he expects price/earnings multiples to expand which should help markets go higher. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is equally optimistic in the Talking Technicals segment, saying he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to end the year up more than 15 percent near 4,500, with technical indicators suggesting to him that the worst is over and that the market bottomed out in October of 2022. In The Market Call, Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, discusses altering ETF portfolios to reflect coming changes in inflation, interest rates and more.

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire, says he is tilting portfolios away from value and toward growth because investors have been willing to pay up for growth at times when there is no growth. As a result, with an economic slowdown being almost certain, Pursche is repositioning to take advantage of where the money is likely to go; he also sees opportunity in fixed-income and in the alternative income space, noting that yields have come up enough to be worth considering. Pursche notes in the Market Call, that despite the anticipated domestic slowdown, he is not turning to international investing right now. Also on the show, numismatics expert Bret Leifer talks about the market for collectible coins and whether it's performed in line with precious metals as inflation has returned in ways not seen in decades, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that retirees saw their life savings decline by 10 percent in 2022 due to a mix of market losses and increased spending costs caused by inflation and, in The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs singles out a popular mutual fund that carries a five-star rating from Morningstar which he says actually has 57 percent of its assets in stocks that are unattractive or downright ugly.

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- the president, Sierra Alpha Research -- says that until the stock market can get above its long-term trend line and show fundamental strength, investors may want to question how good things are really getting. Keller notes that there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but 'the proof is in the price,' and he will stay skeptical until the major benchmarks follow through on major barometers. Keller notes that the 3,800 level on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a key level to watch, as if the index drops below that level -- the low from December -- it could unleash some negative probabilities that investors may want to plan for. In The Big Interview, Paul Espinosa, lead manager of the top-rated Seafarer Overseas Value Fund, discusses why international markets and especially emerging markets are priced right for a rally, even as they digest issues ranging from war to inflation and more. The NAVigator segment features Nate Jones of closed-end fund powerhouse Nuveen talking about how the upward-sloping yield curve for municipal bonds is creating opportunities in the sector, and Randy Baron, lead portfolio manager for international and global investing at Pinnacle Associates, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he believes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been saying about keeping the Fed funds rate elevated for longer, and if the central bank indeed pursues that strategy, the probability of a recession is high towards the end of the year or early in 2024. Mullaney says that for the first time in six years he is looking at increasing bond exposure to help get through what he expects to be a rough year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, looks at trends on the rise in emerging markets for his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses some alarming trends in consumer credit, and Rob Lutts, president/chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management goes looking for good ideas among stocks in the Market Call.

Axel Merk who is president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that while there are signs that the economy is improving, we're 'not out of the woods yet,' and the Federal Reserve 'can't declare victory.' Still, he thinks the central bank will get into wait-and-see mode after two more interest-rate hikes, noting that there may not be a trend reversal this year but that just stopping the hikes should be seen by investors as a good sign. Also on the show, Julie Ramhold, consumer analyst at DealNews.com, tells Chuck -- and you -- how to get a better bargain, or at least a better fit, if you are shopping for gym memberships now that the busy holiday period has ended and, in the Market Call, Mike Cerasoli, portfolio manager for the TrueShares Eagle Global Renewable Energy Income ETF gives his take on the energy market now.