Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

John Mousseau, chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors says that he sees the potential for the Federal Reserve to steer the economy clear of a recession, and while he expects volatility and notes that investors are right to be nervous about high inflation and the inverted yield curve, they should not be scared away from fixed income now. Mousseau notes that with inflation starting to ease up while rates have been rising, investors are being paid well for taking on short- and intermediate bonds. In The Book Interview, Scarlett Cochran -- author of 'It's Not About the Money: A Proven Path to Building Wealth and Living the Rich Life You Deserve,' discusses finding the right balance of savings and investing with spending and enjoying life, and she and Chuck discuss how one area where she diverges from most experts is in suggesting that debt be a tool to help consumers embrace and use smartly rather than avoid out of fear. Also on the show, Rona Guymon of Nationwide Annuity discusses the firm's eighth annual Advisor Authority survey, which shows that many investors plan to keep working in retirement, and may move in retirement to where it is cheapest to live, even if that means moving away from family. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to size up a financial adviser whose recommendations are more aggressive than she believes is right for someone her age.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that macroeconomic signals show that a slowdown and recession are coming in the second half of the year, and while investors should be happy with current conditions and technicals supporting a current rally, she believes that signs like a sharply inverted yield curve, declines in new orders portend a major downtrend in growth. As a result, investors are facing a challenge in managing risk now, and she suggests leaning more into fixed income now with a hard landing ahead, while also resisting the temptation to pull away from the market when they see it moving toward a bottom soon. Roland did acknowledge that later this year there may come a time when investors are much less happy with the economic backdrop but quite pleased with the stock market conditions. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs delivers a Valentine's Day bouquet by talking about a stock he likes now, noting that it's in the same industry as one of the companies he dislikes the most, allowing him to compare the two. Plus, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his 'GPS Method' for choosing exchange-traded funds.

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the current rally is not a sign of a new bull market, but rather proof that the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes haven't really had much impact on the economy yet. She expects labor market softness to increase, layoffs to start and unemployment to rise, with the Fed not pulling back on interest rates until 2024, and while investors are waiting for that pivot they are likely to feel the effects of a hard landing for the economy. Smith's short and intermediate take -- dramatically different than other experts in the Big Interview this week --- said that while she can't say the forecast for the next year is particularly positive, she believes the returns for the next five years will be in line with historic norms. Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, says that the technical indicators are all looking good, but he's wary of the fundamentals and while that caution has him leaning to the bearish side, the market's current trend is bullish enough that investors should be buying the dips now. In The NAVigator segment, Michael Beth, director of trading at WallachBeth Capital, discusses the challenges posed by liquidity issues that can cost closed-end fund investors real money when it comes to making trades efficiently. PLUS, Chuck talks about a sure-thing financial bet that's based on something investors will be watching at this weekend's Super Bowl.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumers having more money in their pocket and setting up 'a pretty bullish environment.' Papic expects the market and economy to be strong through 2023, but does seem some storm clouds on the horizon for late 2024, fertilized by some Fed action in trying to ultimately hit target inflation numbers. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to small-cap stocks -- which financial advisers have been looking at as one of the more promising areas of the market for this year -- and makes a growth fund his ETF of the Week, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Forbes Advisor showing that nearly 80 percent of the members of the millennial and Gen Z generations have gotten financial advice from social media, and Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with collectibles from long-ago childhoods.

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says there is a higher probability of a soft landing today than anyone foresaw at the end of 2022, and that the stock market's strong January proved that investors are buying into the narrative. That said, Garretty says that what people expect a soft landing to be is 'fuzzy.' She expects a time of slowdown and belt tightening, with a little bit of pain and discomfort. Also on the show is Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which shows that the strong start to the year has investors feeling better than they have in months, although the improving feelings are tempered by an increase in consumers' financial stress levels. Also, Financial adviser and author Anthony Saccaro, discusses his new book, 'More Life Than Money: How Not to Outlive Your Savings,' and Chuck answers a listener's question about using an old credit card that is no longer needed for day-to-day financial needs but which has a great fixed rate.

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says we may be 'close to the finish line with respect to how much [earnings estimates] needed to come down,' noting that earnings estimates have already come down about as far as they are likely to. Still, that doesn't give Mian reason to expect a strong rebound; he says corporate performance will lag the earnings cycle, which will lead to a sideways market with the real rebound to come in 2024. In the Talking Technicals segment, Jason Brown of The Brown Report says that he believes the market has stopped falling but has moved into a sideways channel, which could last for a while but which will help to build a base for a new bull market rally. Also on the show, Vince Shorb of the National Financial Educators Council discusses a survey showing that Americans believe they are losing a big chunk of money every year to their own financial illiteracy. In The Market Call, Mark Salzinger, chief investment officer at Salzinger Sheaff Brock, talks about traditional funds and ETFs.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that 'everything is lining up pretty well that the Fed can shepherd the economy to the other side,' and that the markets are starting to agree with that conclusion, expecting a soft landing -- anemic growth but avoiding a deep decline -- and price improvement from here. Mullarkey also notes that he sees 2023 as 'the year of the yield,' which he described as 'a great opportunity to go to the fixed income buffet table and pick from it right now,' noting that he particularly likes U.S. corporate bonds. In The Book Interview, author Drago Dimitrov, discusses what he thinks investors should really know about the underlying operations of the stocks they purchase, as covered by his book 'What Does This Company Do? Understanding a Business and its Risks' David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes that conversation a step further as he discusses a real-estate company that's a 'zombie stock,' but also part of a troubling wave within an industry. Plus, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub covers the site's recent survey showing that -- no matter what the official numbers are saying about prices -- a majority of Americans believe inflation is going to keep getting worse this year.

Lawrence McMillan of OptionStrategist.com, president of McMillan Analysis, says that the technical indicators have all lined up so where there are no sell signals and the market could easily move up to recapture its August highs, though he acknowledges that the big concern is not something in the charts but rather is the Federal Reserve, 'which is not exactly bending over backwards to help the markets.' McMillan notes that he would like to see a confirming signal from a cumulative volume indicator to be convinced that it's a full-fledged bull market, but he intends to ride the trends while determining if the market is building long-term confidence. In The Big Interview, Tadas Viskanta, editor at Abnormal Returns, discusses how the changing landscape of financial blogs and media has left investors swimming in a sea of data that can be hard to cut through without succumbing to confirmation bias and other bad behavioural concerns. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, is back for The NAVigator, looking at how the market's hot start to the new year has changed the outlook for various closed-end fund sectors and the moves investors might want to consider now and, in the Market Call, Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses the X-Out method for investing in large-cap stocks.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it that both the economy and market look much better late in 2023. Amoroso is concerned that the technicals overreacted to a good January, which could lead to short-term volatility or downturn, although she generally finds technicals showing a longer-term positive trend. In the ETF of the Week segment, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, revisits his pick from last week -- the classic Standard and Poor's 500 fund that started the exchange-traded fund business -- with a twist, making an equal-weight index fund his selection. And in the Market Call, Lauren Hill, portfolio manager and research analyst at Westwood Investment Management discusses large-cap and consumer-discretionary stocks.

Contrarian-minded commodities expert Adam Rozencwajg, co-manager of the Goehring and Rozencwajg Resources fund says the energy market 'has a really unique setup' where prices have risen but money and investment has not flowed to the business, which is likely to extend the positive edge and duration of the current energy cycle. Rozencwajg says tight energy supplies will continue, having bullish implications for the whole sector until investors start pushing money into the sector. Also on the show, Jenna Lemair of Insuranks.com discusses the petflation and the site's survey on how animals and pet owners have not been immune from rising prices for food and medical care, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting in the new year, and Sandy Villere, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.