Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says there's a pleasant surprise coming in that the Federal Reserve will not have to be too aggressive to get inflation under better control, noting that he expects a slowdown in the second half -- fueled by labor issues including a potential strike at UPS -- but that the downturn stops short of being a recession. Also on the show, Kevin Crain discusses a Bank of America study showing that the average 401() account balance for men exceeds that of women by 50 percent, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a stock in the Danger Zone that he expects to have one of the biggest earnings misses when quarterly earnings start rolling out in the next few weeks plus, in the Market Call, Manny Weintraub of Spears Abacus talks stocks that produce and compound income.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that the economy must land but the question is 'Can it land in a reasonably smooth way or do we have a sharp correction downward' that triggers a recession. Gruenwald says the Federal Reserve has been surprising the market with its determination to reach its goals, and that while it puts off rate cuts for the next six to 12 months the market will adjust in ways that result in a slowdown and some profit-taking. Also on the show, Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments discusses the rapid growth in interval funds holding alternative investments, noting that the industry is in the 'second inning' of a dramatic growth cycle. And in the Market Call, David Barse of Xout Capital discusses the ins and outs of a system that seeks to invest in the best of the stock market's top companies.

David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- the author of the Haymaker newsletter -- says the economy has been throwing 'a huge head fake right now' that has convinced a lot of pundits that the Federal Reserve can pull off a soft- or no-landing scenario. That's not what he's expecting, however, noting that there are plenty of indicators to suggest that troubles are mounting. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi turns to an income fund for his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses the changing outlook that different generations have for their retirements, and William Smead of the Smead Value fund taks stocks -- and holding unpopular positions for a long time -- in the Market Call.

Zachary Karabell, president of RiverTwice Capital and founder of The Progress Network, says that investors who are looking to past economic patterns to predict what's next could be off base because, among other things, they are looking for a recession instead of trying to gauge whether we are already in one. He notes that the wide variability of potential outcomes from here shouldn't scare investors much, because the mid- and long-range outlooks generally appear to be positive, despite concerns like inflation, the inverted yield curve and more. Plus, Cassandra Rupp, financial advisor at the Vanguard Group discusses the firm's study on 'Higher Education Perspectives and The State of Saving,' which showed that an alarming number of Americans don't know much about the best and most popular vehicles to use for saving for college. In the Market Call, Andy Braun, portfolio manager for the Impax Large Cap fund talks brand-name stocks bought and sold today with a social/ESG mindset.

With surveys showing that most young adults feel they won't be able to afford to buy a home if they don't win a lottery, Chuck talks with Ajaie Albert, communications director at Lotto N Crowd -- a site that tries to mix financial literacy with lottery insights and the ability to join ticket pools -- about whether there is much anyone can do to meaningfully impact their chances of winning. Speaking of the struggles to buy a home, Emily Thornton discusses a study showing that homeowners are struggling too, with nearly 4 in 10 postponing repairs due to the effects of inflation. Plus forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about getting tax documents from reluctant spouses and their accountants, and then discusses red flags that show up in credit-card transactions in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money,' and Scott Davies, chief investment officer at CDAM, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says the economy looks like it can avoid a hard landing, and that should be enough to keep the stock market performing above investors' expectations. turning any downturn into a buying opportunity in conditions that he says should take the Standard and Poor's 500 up to about 4,800 over the next six to 12 months. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses four funds that have earned his interest -- and big chunks of his clients' money -- during the first half of 2023, Megan Sanctorum discusses a Bonus.com survey showing that nearly 40 percent of Americans are using credit-card rewards and cash-back offers to manage their day-to-day finances, and 'Turtle Trader' Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital Corp. talks about momentum and trend-following in the Market Call.

Phillip Wool, head of research at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that equities aren't really pricing in even the possibility of recession, which is setting up a correction "when the economy starts to visibly roll over," when "earnings forecasts and analyst revisions get more negative." He expects that correction in the next six to 12 months, noting that the current rally has been a false indicator because it has been so narrow, with two handfuls of stock driving the index. Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about small-company cash cows as a diversifier for the narrow market in his ETF of the Week, Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 study showing that more than 60 percent of Americans wish that shopping malls would make a comeback, noting that nearly 70 percent of the populace lives within an hour of a dead or abandoned shopping mall. In the Market Call, Justin Carbonneau of Validea.com talks about the investing methods of the masters, and applies them to the stock market to find the buying signals today.

Andy McCormick, head of global fixed income/chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that investors are 'cyclically underinvested in fixed income for a long time,' due to the low yields that were available, and they are also under-represented in foreign bonds -- which are not facing the inverted yield curve that's happening here -- and so diversifying into safe domestic and foreign bonds makes sense as a way to ride out current volatility. Julie Ramhold of DealNews.com sets us up for the coming Amazon Prime Days, and what investors should expect to save big on and how Amazon's competitors will also offer good deals to watch for, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey by Clever Real Estate which showed that nearly 60 percent of millennials are spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing, and that many members of that generation don't think they will ever be able to afford a home. And in the Market Call, Simon Lack of SL Advisros and the American Energy Independence Index talks midstream and energy companies.

Brett Wander, chief investment officer for fixed income strategies at Schwab Asset Management, says that if yields start to fall in money markets -- which will happen whenever interest rates get cut -- he would expect investors to turn to credit to get better returns. With that in mind, he thinks investors should be looking at investment-grade and high-yield credit now. He also suggests that investors go out the yield curve now -- even though it seems like they're not being paid for the risk -- to lock in the long-term rates and reduce reinvestment risk. Michael Sincere -- author of Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader -- says the technical conditions suggest that the market is likely to keep drifting higher through the summer before taking a hit in the fall when current worries take root. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about finding the treasure map to uncover where a spouse might be hiding money, and Joe Rinaldi of Quantum Financial Advisors talks stocks and ETFs int he Market Call.

Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager at Baird, says investors should not jump the gun expecting rate cuts just because the Federal Reserve has paused its hiking cycle and some pundits think the next move could be down. Fitterer thinks the Fed will at least keep rates higher for longer, possibly hiking some more later this year, with the economy likely to slow down into a soft landing or mild recession. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discussed the site's recent survey showing that a majority of Americans are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings, with fewer than half having saved three months worth of expenses to guard against job loss or other personal catastrophe. And David Trainer, president of New Constructs, reaffirms three recent Danger Zone picks -- Cava, Warby Parker and Lucid Group -- for very different reasons; CAVA had a big pop off its IPO, WRBY hit New Constructs' targets as a short but have enough room to run lower that Trainer is sticking with it as a downer, and Lucid recently hit a new low despite a big influx of cash that took it off the firm's list of Zombie stocks but only forestalled the trouble that Trainer feels lies ahead.