Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief executive at Telsey Advisory Group, says that inflation has forced consumers to become more discerning with their spending, using more on essentials and trying to keep powder dry, and while it's not enough of a pullback to tank the economy, the longer inflation persists at high levels, the harder it will be for the consumer to keep propping up the economy. Meanwhile, bullish investor sentiment -- the expectation that the stock market will gain ground in the next six months -- reached "unusually high" levels in the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey, with Charles Rotblut -- who runs the survey for AAII -- noting that extreme sentiment levels often are a precursor to the market changing directions. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs says puts Tesla and Netflix back into the Danger Zone, noting valuations after recent earnings reports have them poised for a setback and, in the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds puts his take on value investing in current conditions.

Avi Gilburt, founder of the ElliottWave Trader continues to see the market rallying to new highs but then setting off on a years-long bear market, but in his other role as founder of Safer Banking Research, he notes that the economic downturn will include much more pain for banks, noting that the bank collapses from earlier in 2023 are just the tip of the iceberg, and investors who flee the market for the safety of banks may soon be worrying about just being able to get their money back. Also on the show, Mark Asaro of Noble Wealth Management discusses how investors should not replace individual bonds with traditional bond funds, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com talks about the financial costs of travel problems that consumers have been facing this year. Plus Ryan Kirlin of Alpha Architect and the U.S. Quantitative Value and U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETFs talks systematic investing in the Market Call.

Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas, says he expects the economy to go through a recession, but not one that is particularly deep or long, provided that the Federal Reserve's moves work toward reducing inflation. Dailey expects the market to be particularly volatile around news events like inflation and unemployment reports, but says that volatility will remove much of the building pressure for something bigger and more painful; his worry is that if inflation doesn't cool, the Fed could keep pushing until the economy craters, causing the worst-case scenario of a deep downturn. Also on the show, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management talks about the 'FANGMAN' stocks -- which he considers highly overvalued despite leading the market this year -- as well as funds and ETFs in the Market Call, Sam Huisache discusses a recent Clever Real Estate survey showing Americans don't feel that marriage is much of a factor when it comes to home buying, and Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a consumer-centric fund his ETF of the Week.

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says she expects a recession and the bad news of that economic downturn will be contagious, with the recession hitting employment, rising unemployment will impact income levels, which hurts spending, and declines in spending injures corporate profits. That cycle could lead to a relatively long sideways period, especially if the Federal Reserve takes its time before changing its rate outlook. Also on the shot, MIT professor Yossi Sheffi discusses his latest book, "The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I. and the Future of Work," and in the Market Call, Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about how even a diehard stock jockey like himself should be considering bank deposits as a possible alternative during the rough times he sees dead ahead.

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist at the Hartford Funds, says risk markets are pricing in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can orchestrate and navigate the economy to a soft landing, and yet her base case is for a recession and history shows these conditions typically end up in a rougher landing. That's how she sees things playing out, despite the current emotions of the market. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the importance of digging into tax returns when coming up with equitable settlements in divorce cases in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money.' Meredith Lepore discusses a Credello survey on how parents are contributing to their kids' student loan payments and how it is stressing their ability to save for retirement and more, plus Michael Loukas, chief executive officer at TrueMark Investments -- which runs the TrueShares ETFs -- talks winner-take-all stock investing in the Market Call.

Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at TruStage, says that while there has been rolling softness in the economy, he believes the Federal Reserve sees inflation as being worse than unemployment, which makes the central bank so determined to curb inflation that it hikes rates and/or delays rate cuts until the jobless rate rises enough to trigger a recession. And while Knapp acknowledges that the Fed could thread the needle perfectly, he notes that he doesn't think a soft landing is the probable outcome. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund in the Danger Zone for performance that he says has been much less than management's investment style should have produced, Olivia Newport covers a Choice Mutual survey showing that inflation has impacted Americans' funeral preferences, and author Michael Thomsen discusses his latest book, 'Cage Kings: How an Unlikely Group of Moguls, Champions, and Hustlers Transformed the UFC into a $10 Billion Industry.'

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, says the first-half upside surprise from the stock market and economy has positioned the market for a big second half of the year. Detrick says that when the market posts double-digit gains in the first half of the year, historically it has added another 10 percent in the second half; he's forecasting for this year to continue the trend, with the Standard and Poor's 500 projected to gain 21 to 25 percent for the year, a prediction that's way up from the 12 to 15 percent gains he was calling for '23 when he made his annual forecast at the end of last year. Detrick's bullish view was echoed -- albeit for different and more technical reasons -- by Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, who says the market is no longer range-bound, having broken out to the upside and with most technical indicators suggesting it could get all the way up to all-time high levels before the year is done. Also on the show, securities attorney Kenneth Burdon of Skadden Arps says that rules proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission would dramatically change liquidity requirements on traditional mutual funds, resulting in a boom for interval funds, and Vern Sumnicht of iSectors.com talks ETFs in the Market Call.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says that she expects the stock market to remain range-bound for a few months, with the potential for a small pullback before it starts its next upward move at the end of the year. Hooper says she expects that we're less likely to see a serious economic downturn that she was earlier this year, noting that the Federal Reserve "is enjoying being in a more normal rate environment and wants to hold onto that for as long as it can." She also talked up the opportunities in fixed income, while downplaying concerns about the inverted yield curve, noting that investors need to start looking to lengthen maturities now to take advantage of the changing rate conditions. Also on the show, Dave Gilreath, chief investment officer at Innovative Portfolios discusses stocks -- and particularly the 'Bulls of the Dow' strategy, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a pioneering mutual fund that created its own niche and now dominates the asset class his pick as ETF of the Week, and Ted Rossman discusses a CreditCards.com study showing which states have the highest and lowest debt burdens relative to the incomes average people earn there.

Jerry Paul, senior vice president of fixed income at ICON Advisers, says that inflation is going to remain stubbornly high, which leads him to expect two more rate hikes and to doubt anyone expecting the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates. He believes it will be 2024 before rate cuts become a remote possibility. Meanwhile, Paul says there are plenty of fixed-income opportunities, though they aren't nearly so attractive in traditional areas like junk-bonds as they are in areas like banking paper or closed-end bond funds. Also on the show, University of Connecticut professor Richard Langlois discusses his recent book, 'The Corporation and the Twentieth Century,' and how 'managerialism' has changed not just the working world but maybe how investors decide which stocks are worth buying. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund talks stocks for the long run.

Barry Ritholtz, chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says the Federal Reserve has done a good job reducing inflation, but he worries that chairman Jerome Powell could over-tighten the economy into a recession, largely because the central bank is tied to models from the 1970s and following an outdated gameplan from that era that could make inflation worse today. In a wide-ranging conversation, Ritzholtz expresses a largely optimistic view predicated on the Fed's strategy not making difficult conditions worse than they need to be. Also on the show, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, says that the big indexes have 'hit a wall,' and that the market needs to gather itself with a sideways move or slight step-back before it can break out of its current range. Plus, in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the spending and money-movement patterns that are telltale signs that family money is being diverted, noting that there aren't many ways a spouse can hide money once their partner knows where to look.