Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says that February and March could be "banana peel months" for the stock market to slip on, but he's not expecting a significant downturn and he says the underpinnings for the stock market will keep the bull market running through at least the end of the year. Detrick noted that the market has sent some mixed messages — with about 20% of stocks making 52-week highs while 6% made 52-week lows just last week — but he says that a strong economy with a dovish Federal Reserve can overcome geopolitical concerns, creating an environment where investors should be "overweight equities, but diversified around the globe." Dan Doonan, executive director for the National Institute on Retirement Savings, discusses their latest report, "Retirement in America: An Analysis of Retirement Preparedness Among Working-Age Americans," which has made headlines for suggesting that the average working American has less than $1,000 saved for retirement. Doonan is quick to back away from that number — because it includes the many Americans who have nothing saved and who aren't working to change that — but notes that while retirement balances are much higher for people who put in the effort, there remains a savings crisis in America. Gil Baumgarten, founder and chief executive officer at Segment Wealth Management, brings his dividend-and-income focused approach to stock picking back to the Money Life Market Call.

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says the intensity of competition in the artificial-intelligence business is setting up a path for big winners and losers, and he says that it's nearly time "to see a lot of the companies in the AI race fall out." Trainer cits cash flows turning negative, and says that accounting tricks have hidden much of the problem by allowing companies to keep some debts off of balance sheets. When focusing on what he calls the real debt level of the companies, Trainer says "the cash flow for these companies is highly negative and it cannot be sustained." Further, Trainer notes that with so much money committed to the development of A.I., there is no guarantee that the companies that get in trouble will find a market waiting to take them over once the financial troubles hit. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how last week's software sell-off isn't changing his take on how "Software will eat the world," but it is a symptom of how the speed of development is amping up investor concerns about the A.I. revolution. He also discusses how and why the "Sell America" sentiment has been building, and why the Dow Jones Industrial Average — and not the Nasdaq Composite or the Standard & Poor's 500 — is leading the way for market gains early this year. David Bach, author, "The Automatic Millionaire: A Powerful One-Step Plan to Live and Finish Rich," celebrates the revised, 20th anniversary edition of the book and the countless people it has helped by getting them started small towards long-term lifelong savings and living goals. Bach — who last appeared on Money Life a decade ago with the 10th-anniversary edition of the book — discusses how time and technology have changed, but how they also have helped savers reach their goals more easily.

Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner at Oxbow Advisors, says that he expects the market to be setting new highs but to challenge some serious lows, hurt by high valuations, current economic conditions and the election cycle. "This will not be a real strong year for the market, and if you make money, you will have to know where to invest and when to invest," Oakley says. He notes that he is more invested internationally in the last 18 months than he has been in years, due largely to lower valuations abroad, and he is also keeping some powder dry expecting better opportunities when the market gets shaken through patches of volatility. Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that increases in default rates are more of a return to normal than a sign of trouble for business-development companies or the economy. Between a bankruptcy and fraud case like First Brands and softness in the software business, Oberbeck thinks that recent activity is more a hangover coming from a time of particularly low defaults, rather than a sign of something bad building up. In the Market Call, Simon Lack, managing partner of SL Advisors — which oversees the American Energy Independence Index — talks about energy and energy infrastructure stocks, as well as how current events in Venezuela are likely to affect oil stocks and energy markets.

Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that many investors have staked their financial lives on the stock market continuing the kind of gains it has posted since the Great Financial Crisis nearly 20 years ago. He worries that that investors haven't saved for retirement or college tuition in a world where the market doesn't deliver something close to expectations; with that in mind — and in a world where valuations are stretched and concerns are abundant — he says investors need to prepare for uncertainty, and to decide how they would feel if the market tanks and what they could do to get more comfortable with the market's potential to peak and take a protracted turn for the worse. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits a fund with an options overlay strategy — one he picked as ETF of the Week in 2024 when it was new — and discusses the success investors have found with it. Plus, Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, returns to the Market Call to talk stocks.

Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, says that earnings growth will be the "defining driver" of market performance in 2026, and would be the factor to watch if you could only see one. PNC is forecasting earnings growth of nearly 15% this year, "which is darned good enough to keep the market rally engaged, even with valuations being a headwind." Agati notes that while there is a "purple haze of policy uncertainty" surrounding the market, she does not expect those concerns to derail the market, noting that accelerating earnings and economic growth should power through the headlines. In the Market Call, Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager at the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF, brings his "aggressively cautious" approach to stocks, talking about where to be opportunistic now. Emily Fanous discusses the IPX1031 annual Travel Outlook survey, which showed that 94% of Americans plan to travel this year — with more than 40% planning to travel more than they did a year ago — but a large chunk of them will have their memories of those trips stirred by lingering credit card or buy-now, pay-later bills.

Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital, is expecting double-digit earnings for stocks generally — but only single-digit growth for the Mag 7 — and he says the broader market with moderate growth and strong economic stimulus should roll on. Ablin entered the year expecting " double-barrel stimulus" from tax refunds created by tax cuts and interest rate cuts, but now that the next Federal Reserve chairman has been selected and that he is more hawkish than expected, he sees fewer rate cuts and a market that is steady but not spectacular. One are that has been spectacular, gold, has Ablin on edge, as he says the precious metal "is telling us that, by the end of 2027, inflation will be 10 percent." He thinks that's too high, which is why he expects gold to correct. Also expecting a correction is Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., who says the firm's proprietary Lowry Market Health Score is in "moderately strong territory" leaving "more to go in this bull market," and yet he makes it clear that after a few more weeks or months of the positive he "could see a pretty sizeable correction." Sean Mullaney discusses his new book, "Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement," which helps workers decide when and how they can afford to pull the plug on their working career without waiting to full retirement age to do it.

Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer, at Zuma Wealth says it is understandable that investors are nervous with a lot of geopolitical worries and headlines on top of a market winning streak that can't go on forever, but she says that a strong earnings outlook, a healthy economy and the market's hot start to 2026 have her constructive and positive on the year ahead, expecting more good news without the negatives of recession or a bear market. She is urging clients to go back to basics to calm their nerves, noting that the market is going through a sharp rotation away from a few leaders to a broader outlook where investors will benefit from diversification and patience. With Valentine's Day ahead this week, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, eschews the usual worrisome pick for The Danger Zone, and instead goes for something much sweeter, a home-building company that he says is particularly attractive now. With jobs and inflation data on tap for this week — and the stock market coming off a big downturn in software stocks — Vijay Marolia discusses investors' nerves and how some might be letting headlines get in the way of good long-term buying opportunities in software, and whether they will be distracted by the jobs and inflation numbers released this week. Plus, he delves into "bets" versus "predictions" and more in "The Week That Is." Plus, Chuck digs in deeper to his Super Bowl jinx -- the trend he has identified in companies that buy Super Bowl ads within seven years of their initial public offering -- to discuss which companies from Sunday's big game might be losers in the market moving forward.

Steven Dover, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton, says that while the economy generally looks positive, he sees it in a "rough spot, especially with those Mag 7 or A.I.-related stocks," which he said have gotten "way ahead of themselves." Dover, who also serves as head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, says he doesn't see an old-fashioned recession happening, but thinks there may be rolling recessions impacting specific industries and sectors. That could lead to a situation "where the average looks great but for a whole lot of people it isn't good," the K-shaped downturn that impacts people who are lacking assets the most. Kyle Brown, chief executive officer at Trinity Capital, gives his outlook for the private credit and lending space, and notes that there could be some challenges for business development companies and private lenders late in the current economic cycle because returns from private credit generally have been declining. That has meant single-digit leveraged returns, Brown says, so "Investors are not happy." That, in turn, has led to redemptions in private funds and falling stock prices. Still, Brown says, that creates opportunities, which he sees being particularly abundant in the technology sector and amid continued capital expenditure spending. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which shows that on a short-term basis, the recent market moves against stocks and precious metals have reduced bullishness. Neutral sentiment is on the rise, and while the market still has a bullish bias, Rotblut says the change will be worth watching as the market digests current headlines.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that while the stock market has blown past multiple red flags and warning signs, investors should not be acting as if indicators like an inverted yield curve, events like war or tariffs, or a simple market winning streak are leading to some sort of fast market shift. Rather than getting caught up in the next news story, Ritholtz says to focus on diversification and common-sense long-term investing strategies, and he notes that for all of the reasons investors are nervous, he would focus on earnings, noting that if he had only one variable to look at to forecast the market's potential, it would be earnings. So long as that trend continues — and he expects it to — the market should keep gaining ground. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to emerging markets with his ETF of the Week, picking a classic, low-cost, long-term fund that he says can be a core holding for investors looking to increase foreign exposure. Plus, Chuck discusses comments by Elon Musk suggesting that Americans really don't need to save for retirement any more. As ridiculous as that might sound, the principal Musk is relying on is called "universal high income," and it suggests that retirement savings won't be necessary because the abundance created by productivity gains created by artificial intelligence will make it so that all future material needs are easily met. While that outcome is possible, Chuck explains why you might still want to fund your Roth IRA for a while.

Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, worries that there may be "an upside CPI surprise" coming in the second half of the year, but he also says there is "the risk of upside economic surprises" now, evidenced in the market action, where he sees basic materials, energy and "things that come out of the ground" like commodities and oil leading the way. Those are assets that normally lead late in the economic cycle, and he expects them to stay strong through 2026. Weniger also discusses why President Trump's recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman has Wall Street scrambling with changing expectations and outlooks. Chuck goes off the news with Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com, to discuss his recent piece on why "focusing on the break-even point" leads many Americans to make the wrong Social Security decision. Powell notes that break-even analysis is mostly used to formulate a bet on longevity, rather than focusing on the income and inflation-protection elements that Social Security is built to provide. In the Book Interview, Becky Robison, author of "My Parents Are Dead: What Now? A Panic-Free Guide to the Practicalities of Death," discusses the challenges facing most people as they face, unprepared, the mortality of their parents. Robison discusses her own experience after the death of her parents which, she notes, was way different than what she was prepared for by years of watching tv and movies that had her expecting a neat, tidy and orderly process.