Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs commodity-oriented ETFs — says that war in the Middle East will have mostly short- and medium-term impacts on markets, commodities and inflation, noting that "If you're not already long energy, you're taking a pretty big risk by buying it now." He says he will be watching fertilizer prices — because Iran is a large producer of urea, a key ingredient in fertilizers — expecting to see some inflationary pressures, but he thinks that, too, will pass quickly. Teucrium also runs crypto funds and Gilbertie also gives his take on how leading currencies will get through the current "crypto winter." With current events in the Middle East impacting his thinking, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a large-cap, low-volatility index fund for the "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund may not be the highest of flyers but it has a history of softening the blow of market downturns and troubles. Rod Yancy, founder of the Oath Money and Meaning Institute, discusses research which found that healthcare costs — premium, prescriptions, long-term care and more — are the top financial worry of American retirees entering 2026, but which also showed that a solid majority of retirees have a positive outlook this year despite current economic and geopolitical concerns. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about using artificial intelligence to improve personal portfolio results.

Louie Navellier, president of Navellier & Associates, says that while it is early to make any definitive statement on outcomes of military actions in the Middle East, he believes the energy industry narrowly and the domestic stock markets broadly are winning as a result of these actions. He makes the case that the dollar historically strengthens in times of conflicts, and that domestic markets enter these times much stronger than foreign markets; he's expecting the stock market to produce "a great year," though he is emphasizing gold stocks to get through and past the current headline events. Author Kim Lankford, author of "Medicare 101: A Crash Course in Federal Health Insurance," discusses the relationship consumers should have with the Medicare system, its future when it comes to financing and how to navigate the morass of rules and regulations to avoid a lifetime of higher premiums and health-care costs. Chuck and his wife Gail are nearing the age when they must make Medicare decisions and enroll in the program, so they are the real-life examples of the considerations consumers have to make. Plus, Allison Hadley, discusses a survey she did on worker happiness for Howdy.com, which found that more than half of American employees consider work to be "just a paycheck." Happiness at work involves many factors, Hadley said, noting that 93% of happy workers have clear ways to succeed on the job, compared to just 52% of unhappy workers, who feel they don't have much opportunity to advance personally or professionally.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the last six months of falling prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum represent a "normal crypto winter," the kind of downturn you see every few years, which typically lasts no longer than 11 months. He thinks the market is nearing the bottom of the cycle now, though he warns there could be more damage before any turnaround, especially with a market facing a lot of idiosyncratic events; still, he believes both crypto and global equity markets are poised for better days ahead. Hougan notes that cryptocurrency started as a "100% speculation" is evolving to where it truly becomes "as normal as gold," making it so solid that it's not really speculation at all; he says Bitcoin is roughly half way into that transition now. Long-term technical trader Mick Heyman, founder of Heyman Investment Counseling and author of "Mellow Your Money," sees the potential for the market to suffer a "shock event" — a one- or two-day decline of 10 to 15% — and a lot of volatility for the rest of this year, but he generally expects the market to push through that decline, which could get the Standard & Poor's 500 down to the 6,000 level, and then climb back higher. Heyman is not suggesting that investors trade out of the market to wait out the downturn; instead, he suggests diversifying and rebalancing, noting that "This is not a time to bet on energy or defense ... This is not a time to bet for or against the Mag 7. ... This is a time to be sure you can handle that 10 or 15% drop." Plus, leading personal finance journalist Andrea Coombes discusses the end of the popular Direct File program from the IRS and how that is leaving consumers scrambling for free tax-filing help this year and where they can turn for help and red flags to watch for in the process.

Economist Howard Yaruss, the author of "Understandable Economics" and a professor at New York University, says that the market and the economy are strong on average, but that "chaos" — including the international tensions that escalated in Iran over the weekend, but also tariff and trade policies and more — should have investors leaning into gold. Yaruss notes that the market has seen so much speculative activity — including trillions for dollars invested into artificial intelligence infrastructure — so that when people see smaller-than-expected payback, the market and economy could go through the kind of demoralizing event that, historically, creates a recession. Yaruss isn't the only one focused on chaos, as Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, talks in "The Week That Is' about "disruption" being the keyword for the week and beyond. He says that tensions in the Middle East have the potential to disrupt the oil market, noting how artificial intelligence has disrupted software stocks and, more broadly, technology companies and the market itself, but he also says that investors need to avoid disrupting their own portfolios by over-reacting to the headlines and the rapid-fire emotional swings. Building on that theme of changes impacting the market's leading sector — and continuing a theme from recent Danger Zone segments, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that technology stocks outside of the Mag 5 are headed for trouble. And, yes, he calls it the "Mag 5" because he doesn't think two companies come close to still qualifying as "magnificent." Plus, Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, discusses his recent coverage of Blue Owl's private credit meltdown and how the company's answers to questions on private credit may be a sign of more trouble ahead, not just for the BDC company – which has been hammered since it stopped redemptions in a non-traded BDC due to problems with some of its software lending – but for private credit markets generally.

Today's show is all about digging into value, which often can be found in the scariest portions of the stock market. Of late, nothing has been scarier than the wash-out in software stocks, but in the Market Call, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says that the "massacre in the software space" has made it that the software sector is now a value priced sector for the first time in two decades. With a lot of software stocks with double-digit free cash flow yields, Peck says, making software "one of the most interesting areas of the market." The software companies troubles have spilled over into the realm of business-development companies, many of which have made loans to software companies that, in theory, could be troubled if artificial intelligence replaces the need for software as a service. Behind the theory that software companies will struggle to pay debts as artificial intelligence renders their products less useful and attractive, there are been some scary, well-publicized issues with a few BDCs. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, digs into the math that is impacting the lenders and BDCs in general. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, shows how the headlines could be creating values that make the industry more attractive, not less, for investors who understand and measure the risk. Plus, Columbia University finance professor Ehsan Ehsani discusses his new book, "Finding Value in Numbers: The Essential Investing Toolkit to Win on Wall Street," which helps investors follow value-oriented strategies in all market conditions.

Ed O'Gorman, chief executive and chief investment officer at River Wealth Advisors, says that despite headline risks, investors need to "participate, without being overexposed" to market forces, balancing risks and approaches. He notes that recent action indicates that the market is broadening out, highlighting that an equal-weighted approach recently has delivered better results and lower returns, a sign that it's a good time to diversify and rebalance portfolios into the face of the news cycle. Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com and the co-founder of FinStream TV, dives into new research showing that household spending tends to decline modestly over the course of retirement, typically by small annual amounts that turn into big money over the decades of retirement. He has created a "Retirement Reality Check" that lets investors see for themselves how spending reductions -- the standard pattern, even if not conventional wisdom -- change the trajectories of retirement savings and spending. With the "ETF of the Week,"Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, focuses on a large-cap value fund that in its three-plus year history has accumulated what may be the most accolades and honors of any fund, getting perfect marks from both Morningstar and Lipper, with a structure and management discipline that should lead to continued future success. Plus, Emily Fanous discusses survey work she did for Credible.com study which found that 77% of Americans engaged last year in risky financial activities.

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says money managers are moving from the market's racehorses to its sure-footed burros, saying it's a sign of "the very late stages of an up move or the beginning stages of the market starting to roll over." Kosar says the market has some room to correct and stay in bull market territory, but he thinks investors want to be cautious here until the rotation is complete. "I'm not saying doom and gloom and we';re done for the year," Kosar says, "but if you want to put on more risk ... this is a lousy place to do it." He's expecting a 5 to 7 percent move down, at which point the market will be much more attractive. In the Market Call, deep-value investor Michael Campagna, co-founder and senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, discusses how the high levels of domestic stocks have him more interested in international investments, but he is finding plenty of opportunities around the globe,including, surprisingly, some that are derivative plays from the artificial-intelligence boom. Plus, Chuck discusses the parts of Tuesday's State of the Union address that had him scratching his head about math and political processes, and digs into statements that were made about inflation, tariffs, Social Security, the level of promised foreign investments into the United States, the scope of fraud in government programs and more.

Economist Steven Durlauf, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, weighs in on the fallout from Friday's Supreme Court decision that the Trump Administration had exceeded its authority in declaring tariffs as being necessary under emergency conditions. While the move put an end to the previously announced tariffs, Durlauf discusses the uncertain benefits of the changes, noting that there are some monies that could flow back to consumers or prices that could decrease, but that most of the impacts will be more on the policy and economy fronts than to the pocketbooks of consumers and the coffers of businesses. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that technology investors could be headed for trouble as he expects the sector to roll over "and take several steps back," bogged down with more balance sheets showing an overload of debt. He notes that tech stocks have benefitted from momentum investing and buy-the-dips thinking, but if earnings slow down — as he expects — and off-balance sheet debts hit home, the sector will lag other parts of the market. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital says that he expects GDP numbers to come roaring back from last week's disappointment, noting that the 4%-plus growth he sees for much of the rest of the year is more than just recovering the gross domestic product lost late last year to the government shutdown. He does not expect that growth to be derailed by continuing trade-policy and tariff uncertainty, which reached new heights last week after the Supreme Court decision. Also in "The Week That Is," Vijay discusses his experience playing around on prediction markets and how that has led him to see that those platforms — which most see as a different form of gambling — will have real impacts on investment theory and strategy in the very near future.

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says the economy is strong and "not looking at a recession here," but that hot economy benefits cyclical stocks rather than the Magnificent Seven stocks, and that limits just how much the market can gain ground. With technology "set for a down year," the other areas of the market can't generate enough gains — even in a robust economy — to make 2026 positive. He also notes the market has been running in a "three year on, one year off" cycle, and he thinks that will impact tech companies this year." Torres still expects rate cuts and thinks any downturn will be relatively short lived and not too deep, but enough for where investors should adjust their expectations. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, sizes up the prospects for the first new IPO the closed-end fund industry has seen in several years, and from a surprising source. Robinhood markets, the investment platform, will launch next week Robinhood Ventures Fund I, a concentrated portfolio of private companies. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses the role private equities can play in a portfolio, as well as the challenges investors face in sizing up a fund with a net asset value entirely based on the "value" of illiquid shares that don't trade in public markets. Billy Hensley, president of the National Endowment for Financial Education discusses the group's recent poll on how American adults view their financial well-being, which found that seven of eight respondents were feeling some form of financial stress as they entered the year, with more than three-quarters of all respondents having suffered a financial setback in 2025.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the economy has been dealing with historic and conflicting economic shocks, but if it can continue the current capital investment cycle and see the productivity gains promised by artificial intelligence, it should be able to remain resilient in pushing past wobbles and weakness. Daco, who currently serves as the president of the National Association for Business Economics, discusses his concerns that growing polarization between different consumers and businesses are increasing the fragility of what he calls "the A pillars of economic growth" — affluent consumers, A.I. investment and asset-price appreciation economic growth — and how that creates "pockets of risk" that could change the cycle. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into signs that the stock market has been broadening to make an equal-weight fund his ETF of the Week, noting that the balanced construction creates a very different take on the market than the traditional index fund covering the same ground. Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" methodology back to the Market Call, discussing how secular change in industries and economies creates the upgrading opportunities he looks for.