Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Karl Mills, president of Jurika, Mills & Keifer, says that the high-inflation, rising-rate global economy is challenging investors to buy assets "that float and swim," namely stocks and real estate, because bonds -- the traditional safe asset -- sink in these conditions, with "an almost-guaranteed loss of purchasing power." Mills thinks the market has the potential to rise from now to the end of the year, but says that any rally will be more sector- and industry-specific rather than being an across-the-board higher tide for all. Meanwhile, Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that consumers are slowing down and cutting back spending before the Federal Reserve has done much tightening, which he considers a potential warning sign for how the economy could struggle as the central bank grapples with trying to create a proverbial soft landing. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to Brazil with his ETF of the Week, and Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses how consumers are already changing/reducing their summer spending plans.

John Waggoner, financial editor at AARP.org, says that the current wave of inflation -- most recently pegged on Tuesday by the government at 8.5 percent -- is not the same as what older investors remember from the late 1970s and early 1980s, but he cautions those older investors to avoid knee-jerk reactions to higher prices, noting that diversification -- buying undervalued securities, investing in securities delivering long-term income streams, and even holding cash to avoid having to sell anything into current conditions -- remains the time-tested way to avoid getting crunched by volatile markets and troubled economies. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which remained in negative territory for the eighth straight month despite a massive, 11 percent uptick in positive sentiment, and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at TFC Financial Management, talks about mutual funds and ETFs -- and how individuals might be tinkering with portfolios now -- in the Market Call.

Leading retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group, says that the retail industry is poised to overcome high inflation, rising interest rates, supply-chain issues stretched by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and more thanks to culture and structural changes, the closing of struggling stores and lagging shopping centers and a resilient, healthy consumer. Telsey acknowledges how retail struggled during the first quarter of the year, but noted that she has high hopes for the remainder of the year, especially as big events and celebrations return to help drive additional shopping. Talking technical analysis, Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma.com, says that current neutral sentiment among traders is a warning sign that a market decline could be in the offing, particularly if the Standard & Poor's 500 remains below the 4,500 level, allowing volatility to build up, potentially generating downward pressure. In the Book Interview, Mary Childs -- co-host of Planet Money on National Public Radio -- discusses her recent book "The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All," all about legendary fund manager Bill Gross.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro for Fidelity Investments, says that investors are betting that the current market can be a replay of 1994 -- when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates to offset inflation and shooting for a proverbial soft landing -- which could mean a sideways path or a holding pattern while the central bank is tightening. Timmer says that while earnings are growing, the market can avoid a more significant downturn. David Trainer of New Constructs explores companies where "street earnings are too high," which means they are in danger of an earnings miss; his list of companies in this condition includes Amazon.com and financial giants Invesco and Wells Fargo. Also on the show, author Keisha Blair discusses "Holistic Wealth" and how the approach can help individuals overcome the disruption of recent events to reach their financial goals, and Chuck answers a listener's question about changing financial advisers.

Jeff Bishop of RagingBull.com says that gold is setting up on a technical basis for a strong rally over the next year. While gold is often used as a hedge against inflation -- and it has struggled in that role as inflation across the country has reached its highest levels in 40 years -- Bishop says it is currently poised to go "well above $2,000" in the next year. Bishop, who is not typically a gold bull, says that rising inflation and interest rates and other fundamental issues are combining with strong technicals to make the precious metal as one of the better long-term trades investors can make now. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Bavaria of "Inside the Income Factory" on SeekingAlpha.com, discusses how investors seeking cash-flow without much regard for total return have been weathering the market's storms of the first quarter, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster discusses the site's "True Cost of Insurance" report, and Ivana Delevska of SPEAR Invest talks about investing in industrial companies and industrial technology stocks in the Market Call.

Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, says she expects the stock market to go through a "very bad period" ahead, the result of a recession that she thinks is brewing right now, a hunch that is supported by an inverted yield curve, high inflation and other conditions. As a result, she says investors don't want to hold long-maturity bonds, and need to be careful about dividend-focused funds and broad market exposure. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com says that the JETS ETF has the potential to give investors a nice takeoff and a soft landing, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses what taxpayers are planning to do with any refunds they receive this year, and retirement expert Anne Lester -- the former head of retirement solutions for JPMorgan Asset Management -- talks about how long-term investors might adjust portfolios and strategies now, without letting current events completely take over and messing things up.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income, says that a miserable first quarter and the threat of more interest-rate hikes have bond investors feeling miserable, but he believes that the worst is over for bonds, noting that the rate hikes have already made it that investors can now generate at least a small amount of income from short-term bonds, something that wasn't possible at the start of the year. Doty says that he doesn't think the Federal Reserve will be able to take rates as far as central bankers seem to want to go, due to some economic struggles; that moderation, in turn, means less damage to the bond market, giving bond investors a reason for optimism even though headlines make things seem bleak. Also on the show, Roger Young from T. Rowe Price discusses the firm's 14th annual "Parents, Kids & Money" survey, which showed that the emergency of cryptocurrency has created excitement in families and the opportunity for more meaningful talks about money and investing, and Andy Braun of the Pax Large Cap fund discusses ESG investing and stocks in the Market Call.

Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that 'the red flags are in the air that the market is ready to roll over,' and while he sees the current rally continuing for another month or two, any upward moves right now are setting up for a bear market, a downward move of more than 25 percent. "Somebody putting money into almost anything right now is carrying a ton of risk," Vermeulen says. "Everything is very overpriced." Also on the show, Chuck looks back at the completion of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Monday and uses it as a metaphor for building a portfolio, and we revisit a recent discussion with Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.

David Trainer, president at investment-research firm New Constructs, says that 80 percent of the Standard & Poor's 500 companies are overstating earnings, and he highlighted Illumina as topping the list, saying the company is overvalued as a result. The company is currently trading for about $350, but Trainer put it in "The Danger Zone" because it has an economic book value of "negative two dollars." Also on the show, Ron Ruffinott of Toluna discusses their recent survey showing that one-third of Americans feel markedly worse off financially now compared to a year ago, economist/author Jonathan Haskel discusses his new book -- "Restarting the Future: How to Fix the Intangible Economy," and Brad Lamensdorf of Active Alts and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF returns to talk stocks in the Market Call.

Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and chief executive officer of Active Alts, says that investors can expect a lot of 'sub-surface volatility throughout the entire year," but all of that chop amounts to the market getting past the bigger-than-expected gains of 2020 and 2021. Lamensdorf says that most market sentiment gauges and indicators are negative but that is creating some pockets of opportunity, though they are hard to spot amid bear-market bounces. Also on the show, Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research returns for a second day, this time to talk about his latest book, "In Praise of Profits," Michael Bell of Primark Capital discusses how private-equity investments can bring something to a portfolio that most investors are missing, and Simon Lack of SL Advisors -- the firm behind the American Energy Independence Index -- returns to talk about energy stocks in the Market Call.