Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that the market's current washout is setting up "a very healthy rally into year-end" that could see the Standard & Poor's 500 finish the year above 4,700, a particularly healthy move because the current pain and decline has longer to go before the turnaround begins. Johnson is currently overweight in energy, basic materials and large-cap technology stocks, and underweight in health care, communications/media stocks and consumer cyclicals. That interview contrasts with Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, who suggested that investors hold tight to fundamentals and the teachings of Warren Buffett, understanding that while there may be a rally in the market, there is a recession on the horizon, likely arriving after the next year. Also on the show, Nathan Shetty, head of multi-asset for Nuveen, discusses diversifying to generate consistent gains and safety in a low-return environment, and author Scott Nations discusses his new book, "The Anxious Investor; Mastering the Mental Game of Investing"

Frank Holmes, chief executive/chief investment officer for U.S. Global Investors, says current economic and socio-political conditions have the market in the middle of a downturn that could grow into a full-blown recession accompanied by a bear market, but he expects central bankers and politicians to print as much money as is necessary to keep economic engines running and to minimize the setbacks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes the Invesco Water Resources fund -- a long-running fund that is a different kind of play on the natural resources space -- his ETF of the Week and Craig Hodges, chief investment officer for the Hodges Funds, talks bottoms-up investing in stocks in the Market Call.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that while gold has not done well in its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last year as higher prices have gripped the country, it would be too early to give up on precious metals filling that role, especially as inflation stays in place for longer than was initially expected. Winmill also notes that if the economy heads into a recession, the permanence of gold will elevate it over cryptocurrencies and other hot assets that have been proposed as alternatives to precious metals in troubled times. Also on the show, Rob Williams of the Schwab Center for Financial Research, discusses a recent survey showing how younger generations are re-imagining retirement, resulting in better preparedness for their golden years, even as those times will look different than the standard retirements of the past. In the Market Call, Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management talks about crunching the numbers on stocks, especially during volatile times like what investors are facing now.

Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the stock market has been seeing its various drivers falter since last year, starting with uptrends turning to downtrends in developed markets like Europe, then in emerging markets, then small- and mid-cap stocks, and now domestic large-cap stocks. With less than half of the market sectors showing positive trends now, Samana says "This is not a time to be playing offense, this is a much better time to be playing defense." In The Big Interview, Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while. And in the Market Call, George Young of the Villere Funds talks about long-term investment strategies with small-company stocks.

Economists -- as judged by the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics -- do not see inflationary pressures subsiding immediately but they believe the damaging impact to the market of high inflation, rising interest rates and global supply-chain issues will stop short of creating a recession in the United States. Economist Lester Jones discusses the survey results, and the prospects for the domestic economy while inflation and war persist. Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the China market is tenuous right now -- with the country dealing with a continuing Covid crisis and also trying to be neutral in the Ukraine War -- but also poised to be a good opportunity for active investors now. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs gives us new reasons to dislike Gamestop and Carvana, as he puts them back into the Danger Zone, and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager for Stack Financial Management, says that inflationary pressures that haven't been seen in over 40 years and the tightest labor market in history mean that what has worked in recent years will not be panning out so well going forward. That means "This is not your father's market," Jonson says, and investors need to go old school and get more defensive, expecting to see some pain before they the market gets positioned for a long-term recovery. Jonson also notes that the average constituent of the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 42 percent from 52-week highs, so while index returns have yet to show substantial drawdowns, a lot of investors have already suffered serious pain, which is likely to get worse from here unless they make defensive moves. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about how closed-end funds fared during the rugged first quarter of the year, Derek Izuel of Shelton Capital Management covers international markets and how current events will have long-term impacts over how foreign investments are used and perceived, and Medicare expert Diane Omdahl of Sixty-Five Inc. discusses the importance of shopping around and knowing the rules before buying Medicare supplement insurance coverage.

Before even getting to today's interviews, Chuck discusses the fallout from Netflix losing one-third of its value on Wednesday, and how a big popular security being challenged this way becomes the perfect opportunity for individuals to see if their portfolio has passed a key stress test. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a new fund highlighting the consumer market in India as his ETF of the Week, David Rainey of the Hennessy Focus Fund discusses the market and the challenges of concentrating a portfolio during times with high inflation and rising interest rates, and Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Chris Retzler, portfolio manager for the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund, says that current economic conditions impacting growth stocks have weighed particularly heavily on smaller companies, and he expects that pain to continue, worsening about a year out as the economy struggles to digest higher inflation and heightened interest rates. In the Market Call interview, Retzler notes that he expects that tough period to set up some strong buying opportunities that will pay off for long-term investors down the line. In the Big Interview, Rahul Sen Sharma, managing partner at Indxx -- which develops new indices for use measuring the investment world in different ways -- talks about how indexing is evolving, how it's possible to accurately capture something as complex as the Metaverse in a benchmark, and how individual indexes and other measures need to avoid falling into the trap of using a good methodology -- indexing -- but applying it poorly to the investment world. Also, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether debt payoff strategies change in a high-inflation, rising-rate environment.

Chuck plays a recent cold-call conversation in which a representative from "Card Services" suggests that a superior credit history has earned the chance for a credit card that charges zero interest ever, and that offers 20 percent cash back for every purchase. The card may be too good to be true -- though Chuck got multiple offers for it -- but the conversation must be heard to be believed. And it's calls like that -- and other personal financial issues -- that leave many seniors vulnerable to fraud, scams and also family money pressures; in today's Book Interview, Naomi Karp, co-author, "Thinking Ahead Roadmap: A Guide to Keeping Your Money Safe as You Age" discusses the importance of selecting a "financial advocate" and the role they can play as you age. Also on the show, Matt Zajechowski discusses a HomeAdvisor.com survey into how many people would be willing to move into a tiny home, especially if it help them beat the rising cost of housing, plus we revisit a recent conversation with Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders Ltd.

Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says there "are very few glimmers of hope out there" in the stock market right now, noting that the market currently resembles 2007 when it was reaching highs ahead of the major downturn of 2008. With high inflation and rising interest rates, Klintworth says that "We are sort of playing 'Fear Factor, Stock Market edition,' and when that happens, nothing good happens for people." Klintworth acknowledges that the market might be able to avoid big trouble, but says investors need to recognize that the market currently may be building a top. In the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer of New Constructs says that the recent actions of Elon Musk are not only going to impact the way investors see Tesla, but all meme stocks, and he expects that Musk's dalliance with Twitter will wind up being a catalyst for investors to take a bigger look at fundamentals, creating a major problem for Tesla and other hot stocks. Also on the show, Bob Long of Conversus discusses investments in private equity and the importance of being committed to riding and overcoming "the J-curve" in order to succeed in the space, and Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors discusses the importance of companies generating cash as he talks about stocks in the Market Call.