The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Growing outrage in Italy after it was announced ICE agents would be in attendance at the Winter Olympics next month.  The US Department of Homeland Security has confirmed that they will serve a security role, supporting the US diplomatic security service at the Games.  Current and former politicians within Italy are urging Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to block the agents’ presence in the wake of two fatal shootings by ICE in Minneapolis.   Italy Correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking she wouldn’t be surprised to see major protests over this, as people are pretty unhappy with the news.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A once in a generation player, Brad Thorn has achieved great things on the field.  He’s arguably the greatest code swapper rugby league and union have ever seen, winning the World Cup with the All Blacks, Crusaders titles, NRL titles, and he represented the Kangaroos and played in State of Origin.   Thorn’s had an immense amount of success across his 30-year career, and he’s detailed the lessons he’s learned in his new book, ‘Champions Do Extra’.   The book’s title stems from a sentiment expressed by Thorn’s father when he was younger – encouraging them to take that one extra step when applying themselves to anything.  “If you ask me who was my best coach, I’d say my dad,” he told Mike Hosking.  “A lot of it was around mindset, and y’know, having a positive mindset and putting in the work, bringing the work ethic and then being able to have the belief, to having earned the belief to be able to, y’know, achieve the things you want to achieve and the potential you have.”   While some measure of natural ability is always useful, Thorn believes it's the work you put in that allows you to become great.   “There’s many times with Richie McCaw, there’s different parts of the game that I didn’t initially think he was natural at,” he explained to Hosking.  “But he just worked hard, y’know, and you saw those parts of his game develop.”  “Hard work takes you a long way.”   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new domestic exchange programme will soon let students swap cities as easily as they swap courses.  Otago, AUT and Victoria University of Wellington have launched Uni Exchange Aotearoa, giving second-year undergraduates the chance to study at another university for a semester.  The scheme offers students a taste of travel without the challenges of going overseas.  Victoria University Vice-Chancellor Nic Smith told Mike Hosking New Zealand can actually offer a real diversity of experience within its universities.  He says the programme is designed to be at no cost to the students, so the decision can be made on the experience they want to have instead of a financial barrier.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economists are expecting the Official Cash Rate to rise sooner rather than later, flattening forecasts for the property market.  Cotality's latest report shows almost three quarters of local respondents expect house prices to rise this year.   Meanwhile, ANZ's slashed its house price inflation forecast for 2026 from 5% to 2%.  ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking the economy can't grow too fast.  She says two hikes are already expected this year.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

St John is dealing with its biggest ever workload.   National ambulance data shows there's been a 30% increase in 111 calls for ambulances over the past five years and a 17% jump in attended incidents.  They fielded over 700 thousand calls last year, and attended more than 550 thousand incidents.   Health Commentator Ian Powell told Mike Hosking ambulance services are mirroring the public hospital system in terms of acute admissions – things that cannot be deferred.  He says that since 2011, the rate of acute admissions has increased at a higher rate than population growth.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Judith Collins is leaving politics on a high note.  The former National leader and senior MP is stepping back from politics after 24 years, taking up a new role mid-year as Law Commission President.  Since Collins was first elected in 2002, she's held 18 ministerial roles, and is currently the Minister for Defence, Public Service, Space, Digitising Government, and the GCSB and NZSIS, and also the Attorney-General.  She told Mike Hosking she’s become the Mother of the House, and dealing with Parliament is like having 120-something naughty children.  Collins says she feels like it’s time to go, and with 12 years in Opposition and 12 in government, there’s a good symmetry.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's thought the fees-free university scheme was theory vs reality.   New data suggests the previous Labour Government policy failed to reach the students it meant to.  Of the 26 thousand students who went straight from Year 13 into study in its final year, just 1.3% came from the most disadvantaged schools – around 230 students.  Universities NZ Chief Executive Chris Whelan told Mike Hosking in their hearts Labour believed it would make a difference, but it hasn't.   But he says but it's been very popular with students because it means there's less of a financial burden on students as they enter the workforce.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are reasons to ignore political polls this year.  And some reasons not to.  1) There have been two polls since the election was called, the RNZ-Reid Research one yesterday and the Taxpayers-Curia poll last week. Both tell you the Government, as it stands, will be re-elected, so there's a consistency to them.  2) Both tell the same story, and both don’t. Labour is on 35%-ish in both polls. That reassures you in terms of accuracy.  But is NZ First on 10% or 11.5%? And in a crowded field where a point matters, far less being inside or outside the margin of error, that makes polls look ropey.  3) A theme. This is where polls are effective.  Both polls have NZ First materially going up. Whether accurate or not, that creates noise, and noise is momentum and momentum is gold in election year.  4) The imponderables of Te Pati Māori. All polls are based on the idea that Te Pati Māori has six seats i.e. they are in Parliament.  But given their current state, will they even survive? And from what we know of the sort of shift we have seen historically, both with the Māori vote generally and Te Pati Māori’s vote specifically, it's entirely possible they will be gone.  Unless you win a seat your 2-3% support is put in the bin. That is Labour's worst nightmare and, I'm assuming, Te Pati Māori aren't that keen on it either.  5) The other commonality between polls is the Greens are down, and their hopeless and hapless disposition easily explains that.  6) Just to back up what I was saying yesterday, TOP would need to more than double their vote to get in. They won't do it.  Can things change? Of course. That's what makes this year so exciting.  The real figure to watch is the right way, wrong way numbers. Governments don’t win elections, they say, when more people think things aren't going well.  Hence the runway, hence the date of November, and hence the hope stuff gets material and fast and the mood changes with it.  But that’s the great reminder all pollsters give you – these are snapshots of a moment, the here and now.  So look at it this way: if the Government can be re-elected when the majority think we're heading in the wrong direction, which both these polls show, what will their margin be like when that mood has turned?  Or this: if Te Pati Māori can't resurrect themselves and the mood swings positive, will November 7th even be close? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Scorching heatwave conditions continue to grip much of Australia's southeast, keeping authorities on high alert as fire conditions grow increasingly unpredictable.  Temperatures soared across parts of Victoria and South Australia yesterday, breaking nearly a dozen local heat records and nearing 50C.  And the scorching temperatures are set to continue, with forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the heat is set to linger until the weekend in areas away from the coast.   Australia Correspondent Steve Price told Mike Hosking that one fire officer said that the radiant heat is so extreme it can kill you before you even get hit by a bushfire.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Donald Trump says his administration is reviewing the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis nurse by immigration agents.  Alex Pretti was fatally shot while protesting against the immigration crackdown in the city this weekend, three weeks after mother Renee Good met the same fate.   The facts around the incident including whether he was wielding a gun have been hotly contested, setting up a fresh confrontation between state and federal officials.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that while Pretti was carrying a concealed weapon, legally, the only thing he had in his hands at the time was his phone.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.