Mike's Minute: Why we should, and shouldn't, pay attention to polls

There are reasons to ignore political polls this year. 

And some reasons not to. 

1) There have been two polls since the election was called, the RNZ-Reid Research one yesterday and the Taxpayers-Curia poll last week. Both tell you the Government, as it stands, will be re-elected, so there's a consistency to them. 

2) Both tell the same story, and both don’t. Labour is on 35%-ish in both polls. That reassures you in terms of accuracy. 

But is NZ First on 10% or 11.5%? And in a crowded field where a point matters, far less being inside or outside the margin of error, that makes polls look ropey. 

3) A theme. This is where polls are effective. 

Both polls have NZ First materially going up. Whether accurate or not, that creates noise, and noise is momentum and momentum is gold in election year. 

4) The imponderables of Te Pati Māori. All polls are based on the idea that Te Pati Māori has six seats i.e. they are in Parliament. 

But given their current state, will they even survive? And from what we know of the sort of shift we have seen historically, both with the Māori vote generally and Te Pati Māori’s vote specifically, it's entirely possible they will be gone. 

Unless you win a seat your 2-3% support is put in the bin. That is Labour's worst nightmare and, I'm assuming, Te Pati Māori aren't that keen on it either. 

5) The other commonality between polls is the Greens are down, and their hopeless and hapless disposition easily explains that. 

6) Just to back up what I was saying yesterday, TOP would need to more than double their vote to get in. They won't do it. 

Can things change? Of course. That's what makes this year so exciting. 

The real figure to watch is the right way, wrong way numbers. Governments don’t win elections, they say, when more people think things aren't going well. 

Hence the runway, hence the date of November, and hence the hope stuff gets material and fast and the mood changes with it. 

But that’s the great reminder all pollsters give you – these are snapshots of a moment, the here and now. 

So look at it this way: if the Government can be re-elected when the majority think we're heading in the wrong direction, which both these polls show, what will their margin be like when that mood has turned? 

Or this: if Te Pati Māori can't resurrect themselves and the mood swings positive, will November 7th even be close? 

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