The Mike Hosking Breakfast

So what is the alternative to what Trump has done in Iran?  The answer was discussed at a meeting over the weekend.  The British appeared to host it. 40 countries took part, including ours, and they were talking about what you might remember is the “global rules-based approach”.  That broadly was the way things were done pre-Trump.  We would have a meeting, agree roughly on a course of action and then head off to the global body that deals with such weighty matters – the United Nations.  The resolution post the meeting was a vote would be held to all chip in and get the Strait of Hormuz open.  The vote was due Saturday. It didn’t happen. It got delayed.  Why? Because people started objecting to it, and that is the rules-based order for you.  The United Nations, at moments like this, is bordering on pointless.  The Security Council has permanent members, and the permanent members have veto votes. If one person doesn’t like the idea, it's off.  So the model, such as it is, requires everyone to agree on an idea and when on one side of the table you have the US and on the other you have Russia or China, what do you reckon the chances of that happening are?  So, nothing gets done. Which is why Iran has been able to get away with what they have for 50 years.  Every time it gets to the edge, or a point where people start to panic a bit, off to the UN we go, have a debate, maybe a vote, wag a finger or two, maybe agree to a nuclear inspection or two – but then ultimately nothing happens.  And so it carries on around, and around, and around.  Which doesn’t make Trump right or unilateral moves on war particularly acceptable. But it does highlight the futility of a system that has failed on the Iran issue for five decades and puts it up against a unilateral decision that, at the very least, has set back Iran for years.  Most of the world argues for rules-based decision making.  Most of the world argues what Trump has done is illegal.  One of the questions though: which one is more effective and actually gets things done? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The European Union’s longest serving leader is at risk of losing his seat.  Viktor Orbán has been Hungary’s Prime Minister for 16 years, but opinion polls suggest his opponent, Péter Magyar, will defeat him at the April 12 election.  While he’s clashed with the rest of the EU, Orbán is considered Vladimir Putin’s strongest ally in the union, and he was endorsed by US President Donald Trump.  Europe Correspondent Catherine Field told Mike Hosking Orbán’s been on the back foot, but one thing that may impact the election is what’s now been labelled as a ‘false flag operation.’  She says the claims explosives were found near a pipeline was intended to arouse sympathy for the Prime Minister, and make it look as though he’s the man who keeps Hungary safe from outside influences.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 7th of April, Iran has rejected a proposed ceasefire with the US and Iran, while Trump says a 45-day ceasefire was a ‘significant step’ but ‘not good enough’ for him to sign.  The Prime Minister discusses the fuel situation, the United Nations vote, or lack of, and whether we should be following Australia with their extra 50 tankers.    Jason Pine and Andrew Saville talk the woeful Warriors, whether Super Rugby missed a trick by giving most teams the weekend off, and the unique ways our guests get around the high price of butter!  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Returning after Easter, Andrew Saville and Jason Pine joined Mike Hosking to wrap this weekend's sporting news.  On today's agenda:  The long weekend's light Super Rugby Pacific schedule - did the organisation miss a trick by only scheduling three matches? The Warriors winning momentum was cut short last month by the Tigers and they were unable to pick it back up in their clash against the Sharks. And New Zealand is hosting a Supercars double header this month, and they're offering suites above the garages for a shocking price. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Super Rugby Pacific's decision to stage three rather than five competition matches over Easter has been justified by the powers-that-be.  Chair Kevin Malloy has defended the move, despite the AFL, NRL and A-League hosting a full slate of fixtures.  Malloy told Mike Hosking the fact that clubs have struggled to get crowds, which is a big part of their revenue, is a big element, and with 11 teams in the draw, they’d either have one weekend with three games or two weekends with four, so strategically it made sense to give teams a break over the weekend.   Also, he says, six grounds were also unavailable, and two teams didn't want to play due to religious reasons.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Queenstown's proposed cable car network could open as early as 2029 if fast track approval's granted.   The network would link the town centre with the airport, Frankton, and the Ladies Mile – moving up to three-thousand passengers each way per hour.   Ten-million cars drive on Frankton Road, making it the country's second busiest single-carriageway road.  Southern Infrastructure CEO Ross Copland told Mike Hosking the network can be built without impacting traffic.   He says Queenstown locals are sick of having road cones everywhere.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's still threatening to completely destroy Iran as his revised deadline for a deal inches closer.   The President's demanding Tehran lift its blockade on traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz by tomorrow afternoon.   Otherwise, he says, US forces will blow up all of the country's bridges and power infrastructure within four hours.   Former Marine Gil Barndollar told Mike Hosking it doesn't look like hostilities will ease any time soon.   He says Iran has rejected a ceasefire proposal, as it wants guarantees it's not going to be attacked again.   Barndollar says the country has no trust in Trump and the US.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister's urging Kiwis to "keep calm and carry on" amid rising anxiety about fuel prices and the conflict in the Middle East.  Latest official figures show overall fuel supplies remain stable.  New Zealand has almost 62 days of petrol, more than 51 of diesel, and more than 50 days' worth of jet fuel, either in the country or on the way.  Christopher Luxon told Mike Hosking there's currently no need for fuel restrictions.  With no supply disruptions, he's urging people to carry on in as normal as way as possible.  He rejected the idea of whipping people into a frenzy over the fuel crisis to gain political capital, telling Hosking that “It’s not Covid – it’s not life and death”.  The Government was focused on keeping people informed, providing targeted support, and putting in “some prudent thinking ahead in case there is a risk to any supply down the road”, he said.  Asked if New Zealand was hustling, like Australia, to get fuel shipments from different sources, Luxon pointed out Australia had started with lower fuel stocks in the country and did not have the regulatory frameworks New Zealand had already in place.  The Government was talking to fuel importers every day, often several times a day, and all were saying they had no risk to future orders.  “They're finding sources of oil from other places…some of it's coming from Canada, some of it will be coming from Peru, Chile, Suriname, West Africa, other places as well.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The army is ramping up combat training amid growing Indo-Pacific security risks.  Senior commanders say the pressure on our defence forces is greater than at any point in recent memory, citing a dangerous strategic backdrop of Chinese expansion in the Pacific and an increasingly unstable world order.  Former Defence Minister Wayne Mapp told Mike Hosking we actually had a much bigger deployment in the first part of the century, but pressures have shifted.  He says uncertainty has replaced predictability, which has created a level of anxiety everyone's experiencing.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I can help Steve Abel.  Steve is the Green's agriculture bloke and he wants an urgent inquiry into the Wattie’s and Heinz mess in Hawkes Bay.  He is wasting his time. Not because he shouldn’t be concerned, because he should. We should all be concerned.  But the answers he seeks are already readily available.  He asks about four main things: the regulatory environment, energy costs, foreign owner indifference, and anti-competitive behaviour from the supermarkets.  The website Newsroom wrote a solid piece about all this several weeks ago in which it was broadly concluded the troubles in Hawke’s Bay have been coming for a decade, so some late, breaking alarmism via yet another committee addresses nothing.  Costs in this country are too high. I refer you to Paul Conway's speech last week to a bunch of financial operators. We are unproductive and have been for years.  Supermarkets have indeed played a part. The home brand scenario damaged the more premium brands and Wattie's etc have suffered because of it.  Now, is that anti-competitive? Or offering more competition? Does the punter want choice and price range? I would have thought yes.  On the energy costs, Wattie's and Heinz have both spoken to this. Our energy costs are ruinous. Gas, or lack of it, has killed a lot of manufacturing. The Greens might like to ask themselves why they got obsessed with solar panels and banned gas before there were enough solar panels to cover the energy gaps.  The old regulatory environment is an interesting one. Labour and Nicola Willis have jawboned rules and regulations and watchdogs and Commerce Commission investigations, but to what avail? Nothing has changed, which either means there is nothing to change, or they are useless.  Foreign owner indifference, I would suggest, that sounds a bit xenophobic. Yes, I know what he means – could a massive player in Detroit cut ties without losing sleep in little old New Zealand? Sure.  But no one who invests and runs businesses does so with indifference.  Between the dumping, the cheap stuff consumers prefer, the size of our market, and the ruinous cost of energy, it's all there as a combustible recipe to blow up a lot of business models.  Peas in a bag and peaches in a tin are the victims. The inquiry is not needed. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.