The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Do you think we will learn some lessons or change our mind now that the war is essentially over?  Do we need to be more oil independent or, overall, is the way we do it for good reason i.e. it's cheaper to buy refined product? Do we need to seek out new markets for products that have previously been brought blindly through the Strait, like plastics and gases?  In Canada the left-leaners are in a lather. The NDP (New Democrat Party) have a new leader and he's very green and very pro-climate change. He's in trouble because his party leaders in places like Alberta and Saskatchewan are riding the oil wave. Alberta's deficit is being wiped out as oil money rolls in, in a way they never forecast.  So you can be a leftie but still understand the economic reality, if not necessity, of fossil fuels. You may not like them, but they work, they are needed and they pay the bills.  Here, surely, if we have learned nothing else it's just how dependant we still are on stuff we allegedly hate, can't get rid of fast enough and thought we were living without.  Power is renewable, broadly, and that is good. But it was very quickly determined cars are no such thing and, more importantly, nothing that carried anything was an EV.  Trucks and cranes and diggers and industry generally is a fossil fuel game and it's not changing. Would we not be better to accept that and get on with it rather than wrestling, clearly hopelessly, with an ideology that, when push came to shove, got found out badly.  The quote of the week came from Plastics NZ when they said "plastics are in everything.  Whoops. I thought getting rid of the straws and supermarket bags was it? There's a small problem though with the downpipes, or pipes in general, not just through the Strait. Are we making pipes out of paper too? Where are those renewable pipes?  So how about we accept that as well? Plastic is real and it isn't going anywhere.  Covid sort of gave us a taste when the place closed down, but the war has been a better wake-up call.  Our actions don’t match our words. The conversation has been hijacked by zealots. We are doing our bit for climate, which is good, but we are not getting rid of plastic, and we are not moving on from oil. We are not giving up the stuff that makes the world go around and life actually work.  In these past five and a bit weeks reality has had its mic drop moment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's travelling to the Persian Gulf to help shore-up the US and Iran ceasefire.  Both sides have accepted Pakistan's proposal to pause fighting two weeks, which looks shaky after Israel bombed Lebanon overnight.    Global oil prices have since plunged below US$100 a barrel.  UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking Starmer’s looking to replace Donald Trump as an ally Middle East countries can have some conviction in.   He says the UK Prime Minister has improved his standing both within his own country, and likely in the Middle East as well by being very wary of Trump’s ambitions.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 9th of April, Iran and the US have agreed to a ceasefire that looks increasingly tenuous – what will happen in the next two weeks?  Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman and Finance Minister Nicola Willis discuss the OCR remaining at 2.25% and the economic impact of the ceasefire for New Zealand.   Kiwi Supercars driver Matt Payne speaks ahead Taupō this weekend and the first ever South Island race next weekend.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Taupō and Christchurch are set for high-octane V8 Supercars action over the next two weekends.  It’s the first time the Supercars championship has held two rounds in New Zealand, and the driver who collects the most points over the two rounds will be awarded the Jason Richards Memorial Trophy, named after the Kiwi driver who succumbed to cancer in 2011.  Matt Payne is one of three Kiwis racing and will be hoping for the same success he had last year, when he won in Taupō.   He told Mike Hosking that it’s been a while since they’ve had back-to-back rounds, especially in New Zealand.  “It’s a little bit different logistically,” Payne explained.  “Everyone gets used to it, but for everyone, I think it’s good to stay on the roll.”   “Obviously the more racing we can do, the better, and two weekends in New Zealand is, yeah, dream come true for me.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A US national security expert believes Iran is gaining leverage out of the ceasefire, showing it can open and close the Strait of Hormuz at will.  “The real question here is: what is Iran holding back?”, New Haven University's Dr Matthew Schmidt told Mike Hosking.  “Can they restart their threats over the Strait of Hormuz six weeks from now, two weeks from now, right, six months from now?”  Gulf states were “desperate” for the strait to open and to have Iranian drones and missiles under control. "They're being fired directly at their oil and gas facilities, which are going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - if they are taken offline - to restart.”  The key question was what would happen in two weeks’ time - whether Iran would “flex their muscles” and threaten to close the strait, or control which ships could travel through.  Schmidt believed the Iranian regime was weakened and would not last long-term, but it could still be in control for a decade or more.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Organised crime groups likely still dictate New Zealand's drug market despite huge increases in seized product.  Border drug busts jumped from 1.5 to 6.5 tonnes between 2018 and 2024.  In the first nine weeks of 2026, more than 12 tonnes of cocaine was stopped in the Pacific.  Chair of Ministerial Advisory Group for Organised Crime Steve Symon told Mike Hosking groups are stockpiling.   He says they're getting enough drugs in so they can still control prices, even when there are disruptions.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor says the conflict in Iran has materially altered New Zealand's outlook, even if yesterday's ceasefire deal leads to a de-escalation.  The central bank's kept the Official Cash Rate on hold at 2.25%.  It's forecasting inflation will hit 4.2% this quarter and says it's prepared to hike the cash rate if inflation becomes embedded.  Governor Anna Breman told Mike Hosking even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, economic disruptions will linger for some time.  She says we're facing a severe supply chain disruption, affecting not just oil, but also the shipping of other goods.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Education Minister's hitting back at union claims her flagship assessment tool is falling flat.  The Educators Collective says fewer than 60% of schools have signed up to the SMART reporting system, with some not planning to use it.  The tool gives parents progress markers and twice-yearly updates for Year 0-10 students.  But Erica Stanford told Mike Hosking the criticism is a political hit job and the union’s fudged the figures.   She says 250 thousand students were signed up to SMART in nine working days, which shows the sector understands assessment is important to raise achievement.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Too many 'ifs' around the Iran war for our Finance Minister to guarantee all will be well down the track.  There are differing reports as to whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually open following a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.   New Zealand has more than 60 days of petrol and 50 of diesel.  Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking a sustained ceasefire and movement of ships paints a better inflation picture, but it all depends on if this happens.   She's also conscious that even when the strait opens, major energy market disruption will persist.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For what it's worth, let me have a crack at the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll.  Firstly, officially, I pay no attention to them other than a broad theme i.e. a collection of polls and an overarching trend.  The trend continues in this latest poll with the Government being re-elected by a fairly heavy margin, 65 seats to 55.  Small point: is it me or do there seem to be a lot of polls? Is it because of election year? It's not cheap to do a poll so someone is either fascinated, or flush.  Then of course we get to the now well accepted truth that getting people to participate isn't easy. In fact, it's getting harder and the age-old concept of 1000 random people is well and truly gone as they hand out food vouchers and rewards to take part.  The next problem with this poll is the NZ First figure of 13.6%, which is up four points. That isn't real.  That’s about a 30%-ish increase. No one grows or loses their support at that pace.  You also see a shift fairly dramatically to the Government. National is up, NZ First is up, and ACT is up. The Government are on fire according to this. Are they?  But despite all that moderately interesting analysis, all the NZ Herald could do yesterday was focus on the fact National had failed to get 30%, even though it was 29.8%. And you always round up, so it was 30%.  Why we fixate on large parties in an MMP environment I still don’t know. MMP is about parties and deals. This election is about two choices – the current lot, or the other lot.  On this poll, in fact virtually in all polls, the current lot win.  If you want to fixate on National then, yes, if these numbers were real, they would lose some seats. But that’s because they did well last time and why did they do well last time? Ardern, Hipkins, Robertson, and Covid.  Case closed.  Parties that ride high in one election tend to shrink in the next. It's not fun if you are in the middle of it but it's political reality nevertheless.  In an environment where the vote is so widely split, having 30%+ parties will get more and more rare. It's not a bad thing, but the media having decided they hate Luxon can't look past it.  Maybe for them it's more fun than the reality of the overall poll, which is of course their preferred option.  The left is getting spanked. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.