Michael Covel's Trend Following

My guest today is Tyler Cowen, an American economist, columnist and blogger. He is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert L. Harris chair in the economics department. He hosts the economics blog Marginal Revolution, together with co-author Alex Tabarrok. The topic is economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers Cowen's early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling The notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes Why we're moving from the 1% to the 15% "Average is over" and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first Problems because of "average is over" in Singapore Pure free markets Thinking about why past regulations have failed How computers change us Globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for Zero marginal product workers Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is William Poundstone, an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan. The topic is his book Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Claude Shannon The connection between Al Capone The Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry Bell Labs and information theory Why, when betting, if there's a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything Criticisms of the Kelly criterion Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting Long-Term Capital Management Martingale vs. Kelly Early development of the Black-Scholes formula Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Perry Kaufman, an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. The topic is systematic trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems The difference between being systematic and being automated Optimization vs. validation The biggest advantages of testing Why discretion is not part of Kaufman's toolbox The problem of tail events Why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader The "loose pants fit everyone" philosophy Preparing yourself for uncertainty Comparisons between risk management and risk measurement The Sharpe ratio High volatility trades vs. low volatility Why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system Systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history. The topic is Epsilon Theory. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Power of the crowd watching the crowd Game theory Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched The "common knowledge game" and the missionary The island of the green-eyed tribe Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve's 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program. The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Looking at the short term Black swans Huszar's history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve The changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980's to the late 2000's Quantitative easing Why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011 How the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history The current source of Wall Street money The idea of an overly financialized US economy The need for long-term structural changes in the US Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guests today are Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann. Hersh Shefrin has done pioneering work in behavioral finance and is the author of Beyond Greed and Fear. Hoffmann is a colleague of Shefrin. He is a Professor of Finance at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. The topic is their paper, Technical Analysis and Individual Investors. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Shefrin discuss how Shefrin came to know that behavioral finance was his path; the two-system framework; the connection to behavioral and eating disorders; the disposition effect; when emotion and reason are in conflict; "transferring your assets" vs. "selling a loss"; distinguishing between rules and discretion; how we stick with rules for ourselves given the context of our humanity; the psychological pitfalls of the 2008 financial crisis; the inevitability of market crises; Minsky and Keynes; the psychology of Keynesian economics; and human ideas surrounding uncertainty. With Arvid Hoffmann, Covel discusses the paper Technical Analysis and Individual Investors; the inspiration for the paper; Hoffmann's definition of technical analysis; the narrow focus of the paper to short-term trading; technical analysis and trend following; "invest as if the market was efficient", and "restrict your attempts to beat the market" Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Please enjoy my monologue An Agenda Or An Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Mark Miller, an American computer scientist. He is known for his work as one of the participants in the 1979 hypertext project known as Project Xanadu; for inventing Miller columns; and the open-source coordinator of the E programming language. He also designed the Caja compiler. Miller is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foresight Institute. The topic is computer science. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Property rights Hernando de Soto Bitcoin and digital trust "Smart contracts" Why a contract is like a board game Game theory 3rd World infrastructure How program code can become a contract A closer look at "possession is nine-tenths of the law" Whether the Turing Test was just passed Defining the term "singularity", and the multiple singularities of the past A.I. and nanotechnology How Miller's work relates to markets The history of hypertext Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Van Tharp, Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. He was also featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizard's: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. He has used his expertise in NLP to create the successful models of trading and investing upon which so much of his work is based. The topic is his book Trading Beyond the Matrix: The Red Pill for Traders and Investors. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Beliefs in the context of trading and investing The moment of now, and the Navajo's belief of a never-ending present The belief examination paradigm "Big money" and what it means to Van Tharp The idea of "trader jail" Fear of the unknown The importance of sleep The difference between spirituality and religion Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is David Ryan. Ryan was famously first featured in Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards" book. Ryan has been the U.S. Investing Champion for 3 times and also worked for William O'Neil. The topic is market wizards strategies. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Ryan got his start walking up to the front door of O'Neil's offices How Ryan would describe his approach to trading today CAN SLIM trading, and buying the breakout vs. buying the dip Enjoying trading without clients Some good CAN SLIM winners in the past two to three years from Ryan's perspective Big picture-wise, the max loss that Ryan is willing to take on a position The type of winning percentages that Ryan really sees The uneasiness about the overall market system since the 2008 financial crisis and how Ryan looks at how the situation has unfolded High frequency trading How the market can be humbling; and getting your ego out of the market Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!