The Dividend Cafe

The actual event that I am discussing may be totally foreign to you, despite the fact that it has dominated the financial news for five or six days. There is a good reason for this if, indeed, it is true for you. The event has proven to be a really weak “news” story in my mind (not for lack of trying), but even apart from the broader news hype, it has further proven to be a weak “financial news” story, and that really, really comes not for lack of trying. This news story begs for us to address the subject of “contagion risk.” After listening to this episode, you will know much more. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Who would have guessed that at the one-year mark of the worst market drop since the Great Financial Crisis, one of the hottest topics in financial markets is whether or not we are in a “bubble.” Am I the only one that sees a tiny bit of irony here? A year ago, the conversation was entirely focused on whether or not millions of American people were going to die, how long the entire American economy would be shut down for (hint: it lasted longer than 15 days to bend the curve), and whether 18,000 in the Dow would prove to be low enough. Painful times, painful memories. Today I want to look into the very idea of bubbles, evaluate as intelligently and objectively as I am able what is going on in markets right now and what is not going on, and see if we can’t offer a little clarity into a subject that I think gets quite polluted by poor punditry. Of course, if it weren’t for poor punditry, wealth advisors like us would have a lot less cleaning up to do. Join us in the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Zoom Replay of National Call Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

If you want a better understanding of the present state of the equity land, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want a realistic assessment of the risk of correction, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want to know what to make of higher bond yields, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. And if you want more clarity on what the Fed is doing and not doing, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Both anniversaries are vitally important and warrant special attention. One of them may surprise you or at least represent something you have forgotten. Hopefully, that will all change after you hear this podcast.DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Everything is about the Fed, bond yields, and inflation right now.  Sometimes I mean that as if I am describing what really does matter, and other times I am just describing what "all the rage" is about.  "Everything is about" may mean what "everything is about," or it may mean what "everyone is talking about."  In this case, we have the weirdest of circumstances where "everyone" is talking about the right thing, but doing so in the wrong way.  Allow me to break through some of the ambiguity. On a daily basis you will find media reports expressing shock and awe about a 10-year Treasury bond at 1.5%, and it's fair enough to note the speed with which yields have moved in recent days.  But the coverage really has an implicit message in it that I believe needs to be shunned.  And as is always the case it seems, getting to my destination requires a few detours along the way. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Investing options are growing at a rapid pace with some what were once fringe investment areas are now making it mainstream to the tune of tens of billions or dollars. With what is happening, what does today's investor do or not do to make wise investment choices? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

So when I launched The DC Today, it freed me up to use Dividend Cafe to be more “singular topic” focused, and I really do believe that makes for a better commentary. I have mostly not used this weekly commentary for “ad hoc” market discussion or current events, and I think this approach has enabled me to go a little deeper into topics that I believe are essential in their relevance. I plan to continue this approach until I get inspired otherwise (or overwhelmed with hate mail, whichever comes first). This week, though, I do a little bit of both. The “singular topic” is a really important one – and that is seeking a better understanding of what really drives asset prices over time. There is a need for improved knowledge here, not just amongst mom and pop investors but apparently amongst the professional class as well. But I have been in New York City away from my family all week, which means one thing about my evenings back at my apartment – instead of hanging out with my wife and kids, I am just sitting there, unrepentantly (and some would say pathetically) reading more and more research. And this leads to one thing – more fodder and inspiration for the Dividend Cafe. Ergo, I cover a few “odds and ends” this week as well. Whether it is the discussion of market forces or the tidbits covering a healthy array of other topics, I truly hope you will enjoy today’s edition of the Dividend Cafe. Let’s dive in … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David L. Bahnsen joined by Scott Gamm to discuss the market happenings of the day. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I think there is some “economic vocabulary” in today’s Dividend Cafe that might – might! – be a turn-off to some, but will be overcome easily if you bear with it. And more importantly, there is a practical takeaway through it all that I hope you will find very rewarding. I can see myself taking a more “multi-topic” approach to Dividend Cafe in the weeks ahead as opposed to the last several that have purposely “drilled down” into a particular theme that warranted special focus. That said, I find that five or six different topics seem to have a lot of overlap these days. I can think I am talking about government spending one paragraph and economic growth another, and voila, the third paragraph is talking about how government spending impacts economic growth. Economic and market commentary these days is one giant Venn diagram. Such is the case with so many things I cover today. I prefer writing where all the dots are connected by the end, and maybe you will think I pulled that off by the end. But what we have today is a lot of charts, a good amount of information, some perspective that I confidently believe will aid your understanding as an investor, and maybe, just maybe, some cohesion to it all that adds sensibility when said and done. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com