Long Story Short

The bond market is bigger than the stock market at $130 trillion globally, and a lot of investors treat it like a fortune teller. Adam and Andy dig into what bond market moves actually signal, why rising yields don't always mean bad news, and how the recent spike tied to oil prices fits into the bigger picture.Adam walks through a surprisingly consistent story in US tax history. Despite top marginal rates that once hit 90%, effective tax rates have hovered between 20 and 30% for decades. Individual income taxes and payroll taxes fund the overwhelming majority of the federal government, and the estate tax, despite all its political attention, has never broken 5% of federal revenue.They close with news that Burney's Nashville office is officially open.⏱️ Timestamps: (0:55) Intro: Episode 39 and the "smart money" debate(3:17) The bond market is $130 trillion globally, bigger than stocks(4:47) What bond investors actually care about: inflation, growth, creditworthiness(7:36) What rising yields actually signal vs. what people fear they mean(11:32) Conflicting signals: rising rates have historically been a positive for equities(13:02) How taxation has changed over decades: estate tax, income tax, payroll tax(15:38) Individual income taxes and FICA fund the overwhelming majority of federal revenue(18:48) The effective tax rate has stayed between 20-30% despite dramatic rate changes(20:18) Nashville office is open(23:40) Podcast disclosuresResources:Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcastFollow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ #TaxPlanning #InvestingStrategy #BondMarket #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The average IRS tax refund is up 10.6% this year, and Adam explains why: the new tax bill reduced liability, but withholding tables on paychecks never got updated, so millions of people over-withheld through the back half of 2025. A good surprise this year, but a reason to revisit your withholding now.Adam and Andy open with listener feedback on fraud and financial conversations with adult children, including a real story from a highly educated listener who got targeted by a scam. The takeaway is uncomfortable but important: it can happen to anyone.Then Andy walks through how Burney builds portfolios beyond US stocks, explaining the asset allocation process, how correlation drives diversification decisions, and why the classic 60/40 portfolio broke down in 2022.They close on the decumulation dilemma, a concept from retirement researcher David Blanchett that captures something Adam sees constantly with clients: people who spent decades saving end up too afraid to spend in retirement, and their portfolios flatline when they should be funding the lives they planned for.⏱️ Timestamps:(0:45) Intro: Listener engagement and episode 38(1:45) Fraud follow-up: a highly educated listener shares how they were targeted(3:47) Password reuse: how it opens the door to fraud(5:13) Talking to adult children about money and the fear of creating dependency(11:00) Listener question: how does Burney build a full portfolio beyond US stocks?(12:27) What diversification actually means: low correlation, not just different labels(13:45) International stocks: 35% of global market cap, and why that matters(14:56) Bonds, alternatives, and what to do when correlations break down(17:00) This is not a static process: asset allocation evolves(19:10) ETFs vs. direct investing: where Burney uses each(22:20) Tax refunds up 10.6%: what's driving it and what to do now(24:37) Adjusting your withholding for the rest of 2026(28:47) The decumulation dilemma: why retirees underspend(32:00) The fear of outliving your money and how planning addresses it(33:53) Defining what your own retirement mountain actually looks like(35:37) Podcast disclosuresResources:Long Story Short websiteFollow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn David Blanchett’s Post: “The Decumulation Dilemma”Ep 26: Cybersecurity Episode with Max Alles #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #PortfolioManagement #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Oil jumped above $100 a barrel after last week's Iran episode podcast aired. Markets stayed choppy through the back half of the week, and Adam and Andy open episode 37 by following up with data that might surprise you. When oil prices are rising, average annual S&P 500 returns have historically been higher than when oil prices are falling.Then Andy pulls back the curtain on how Burney actually selects stocks. The process starts with size and style positioning, runs through a quantitative model that scores over 3,000 stocks across nine sector-specific frameworks, and gets a human check before anything goes into client portfolios. The investment committee meets monthly. Headlines about Iran don't drive the decisions.They close on a topic that's more personal than financial. Fraud targeting adults over 60 hit $700 million in reported losses in 2024, five times the 2020 amount. Adam and Andy cover the warning signs to watch for in family members and the protective measures to put in place before something goes wrong.⏱️ Timestamps: (0:00) Intro: Markets stayed choppy after last week's Iran episode(1:33) Oil jumped above $100 a barrel over the weekend(2:44) Ben Carlson's data: S&P returns are actually higher when oil prices rise(4:28) Volatility cuts both ways: biggest up days cluster near biggest down days(7:39) Listener question: how does Burney pick stocks?(9:19) Start with size and style: tilting toward where momentum is(11:42) The quantitative model: 3,000+ stocks, nine sector-specific frameworks(13:24) Where the human sanity check comes in(19:32) Fraud targeting adults over 60: $700M stolen in 2024(21:30) Impersonation scams up fivefold since 2020(22:09) Warning signs to watch for in family members(23:33) Protective steps: trusted contacts, power of attorney, transaction alerts(25:06) How to approach a family member you suspect has been targeted(39:00) Podcast disclosuresResources:Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcastFollow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Ben Carlson’s Article “How Do Higher Oil Prices Impact Stock Market Returns?” | https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/how-do-higher-oil-prices-impact-stock-market-returns/ Vanguard Article “Protecting your inner circle from financial fraud” | https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/article/protecting-your-inner-circle-from-financial-fraud Ep 26: Cybersecurity Episode with Max Alles | https://burneywealth.com/podcast/cybersecurity-guide-max-alles-long-story-short-episode-26 #WealthManagement #InvestingProcess #FraudPrevention #RetirementPlanningThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Markets opened down Sunday night after the US launched a full-scale military operation in Iran. By Monday afternoon, all major indexes were in the green. Since that initial reaction, the market has moved down for the week. Adam and Andy dig into what history actually shows about how markets respond to geopolitical events and why the phones have been quiet.Then they answer two listener questions. First, should you borrow from your 401(k)? Adam walks through how the loan works, who it might make sense for, and when it becomes a red flag. Second, what happens with Medicare when you turn 65 but you're still working? The answer depends almost entirely on how many employees your company has.They close with a ranking of overused finance buzzwords: stagflation, inverted yield curve, and the Strait of Hormuz.⏱️ Timestamps:(1:13) Intro: US military operation in Iran(3:07) What does the war in Iran mean for the markets?(4:17) What history shows about markets after geopolitical events(7:03) Why global events often don’t impact markets as much as you might expect(10:30) Listener Q: Should you borrow from your 401(k)?(11:07) How a 401(k) loan works: limits, interest rate, repayment(13:13) The big risk: what happens if you leave your job(14:47) Who it makes sense for and who should avoid it(18:12) Listener Q: Medicare at 65 while still working(19:37) The key question: does your employer have fewer or more than 20 employees?(23:26) HSA nuance: what changes once you enroll in Medicare(25:21) Finance buzzword ranking: Strait of Hormuz, inverted yield curve, stagflation(27:50) Podcast disclosuresResources:Long Story Short websiteFollow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn#retirementplanning #medicare #personalfinance #wealthmanagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The US men's hockey team won gold for the first time in 40 years. Private credit is making headlines as the next 2008 crisis. And the Rule of 55 might help early retirees access their 401(k)s penalty-free.Adam and Andy start with the miracle on ice moment, then get into the private credit panic sweeping financial media. Blue Owl's pricing shock revealed a 16% discount between stated value and market value, triggering fears about what's really inside private debt funds. Data from Cliffwater tells a different story: defaults below historical averages, yields hovering around 9%.Then they explain the Rule of 55, a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency strategy that lets people access 401(k) funds penalty-free between ages 55 and 59½. Finally, Adam breaks down estimated taxes and why $1.3 billion in underpayment penalties hit high earners in 2024, triple the 2021 amount.⏱️ Timestamps: (1:31) Intro: US Olympic hockey gold after 40 years(3:42) Private credit making headlines as the next crisis(7:12) Blue Owl pricing shock: 16% discount revealed(10:19) Cliffwater data: Yields above 9%, defaults below normal(14:09) Rule of 55 explained: Break glass in case of emergency(18:00) When does using the Rule of 55 actually make sense?(19:35) Downsides: Lost tax-deferred growth and potential higher tax brackets(22:26) Estimated taxes: $1.3 billion in penalties for high earners in 2024(27:45) Two safe harbors: 90% of current year or 100-110% of prior year(29:40) Projecting tax liability with variable income sources(37:37) Podcast disclosuresResources:Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcastFollow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Alex Shen’s post about Private Credit | www.linkedin.com/posts/alexshen7_more-cockroaches-dont-hold-your-breath-activity-7431549039994843136-9jpBWall Street Journal Article: “Estimated Taxes Are a Pain. Here's How to Avoid Costly Penalties” | www.wsj.com/personal-finance/taxes/estimated-taxes-are-a-pain-heres-how-to-avoid-costly-penalties-d71cf00dCliffwater: New Private Credit Data Contradicts the Recent Risk Narrative | https://cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle/new-private-credit-data-contradicts-the-recent-risk-narrative?docId=30429 Cliffwater: After Misstep, Blue Owl Gets It Right, Unlike the Press | https://cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle/after-misstep-blue-owl-gets-it-right-unlike-the-press?docId=30427 #PrivateCredit #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

A viral essay claimed AI is taking over knowledge jobs right now, not in the future. Elon Musk said retirement planning is irrelevant for anyone retiring 10+ years from now. And Trump accounts launched with a free $1,000 for qualified children.Adam and Andy break down the AI panic sweeping through feeds this week, starting with Matt Shumer's "Something Big is Happening" essay that got 50-60 million views. They question whether comparing AI to the internet sets an impossibly high bar, examine why Apple hasn't spent anything on AI CapEx while competitors race to build empires, and discuss whether this is genuine transformation or tech CEO posturing.Then they talk through Elon's claim that AI will make costs drop to nearly zero and work optional. Adam explains why planning is about creating certainty in an uncertain world, not betting on utopian predictions. Finally, they touch on Trump accounts and why (outside the free $1,000 for children born 2025-2028) there are better tools like 529 plans and UTMA accounts for saving for kids.⏱️ Timestamps: (0:00) Intro: Parenting as AI model training(1:26) Snowboarding & Feedback Loops: How kids (and models) learn in the wild(4:12) "Something Big is Happening": Analyzing Matt Shumer’s viral AI essay(6:50) The Great AI Debate: Polar opposite views from the CFA Institute dinner(8:25) The Internet Benchmark: Is AI truly as transformative as the web?(9:19) AI CapEx & The Mag Seven: Why Apple is the notable outlier in spending(11:00) Elon Musk’s Prediction: Is retirement planning officially irrelevant?(12:46) The Strategy of Certainty: Why we plan for the "uncertain world"(15:06) The Musk Track Record: A look at past predictions vs. reality(19:23) Trump Accounts 101: New savings vehicles and the $5,000 limit(23:47) Alternatives to Trump Accounts: What’s the best option?(28:22) The Flexibility Trap: UTMA accounts vs. parental discretionResources:Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcastFollow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Matt Schumer’s Essay “Something Big Is Happening” | https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening Ep 22: Teaching Kids About Money, Social Security Strategy & Year-End Giving | https://burneywealth.com/podcast/teaching-kids-money-social-security-strategy-long-story-short-episode-22 #AI #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Markets hit all-time highs while major stocks crashed. Bitcoin dropped nearly 50%. And clients are asking a big question: where should I actually withdraw money from in retirement?Adam and Andy break down the bizarre market rotation where the S&P 500 sits less than 1% from all-time highs while Netflix, Coinbase, and Adobe are down 40-60%. They explain why this is healthy, whether the shift from growth to value has staying power, and what AI as a headwind (instead of tailwind) means for software stocks.Then they discuss the withdrawal order puzzle. Should you pull from taxable accounts first, or IRAs to limit RMDs, or Roth because you hate taxes? The answer depends entirely on when you retire, how your assets are distributed across account types, and what flexibility you want to preserve.⏱️ Timestamps: (1:36) Intro: Super Bowl recap and market excitement(4:02) Markets near all-time highs while growth stocks crash(5:24) What's working: the shift from growth to value(7:36) Is this rotation to value a head fake or sustainable?(10:34) Bitcoin down nearly 50% from the peak(11:26) Crypto volatility: it cuts both ways(13:29) The withdrawal order puzzle: where should you pull retirement income from?(15:10) Retiring at 55 vs. retiring at 70: completely different situations(18:18) The importance of flexibility and diversification across tax types(19:36) Customizing your retirement investing strategy over time(23:33) Winter Olympics overconfidence check: what event could you finish?(26:14) Podcast disclosuresResources:Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn Follow Adam Newman on LinkedinFollow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn#InvestmentStrategy #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

What happens when someone who actually worked at the Fed joins the podcast? We brought in Hannah Sheldon, our firm’s newest research analyst and former Fed policy analyst, to break down Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed chair.Hannah explains what Warsh's inflation hawk history means for interest rates, why shrinking the Fed's balance sheet could shake things up, and how his views on AI as disinflationary might give him room to cut rates. Then Adam and Andy discuss silver's sudden crater (classic bubble behavior) and finish with a deep dive into stress testing your retirement plan.⏱️ Timestamps: (1:14) Intro: Big news on the Fed chair nomination(2:18) Welcoming Hannah Sheldon, former Fed policy analyst(3:38) What should we make of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?(4:46) Changes we might expect: shrinking the Fed's balance sheet(6:14) Why reducing the balance sheet contradicts cutting rates(7:29) Squaring Warsh's inflation hawk history with pledges to cut rates(9:03) The Fed's core job: dual mandate explained(10:13) What Warsh thinks about unemployment and AI's impact(11:23) Hannah's take: expect strong market performance(13:07) Pivoting to silver's big collapse & the nature of commodities(17:04) How to decide if you should take part in the latest hot investment trend(18:22) Tier one money and avoiding speculation with essential capital(19:33) How to stress test your tier one bucket(22:20) Planning for healthcare: the quarter million per spouse rule(24:31) Conservative assumptions: lower returns, higher inflation(25:28) Sequence of return risk & asset allocation as a tool against it(29:38) Preview: Trump accounts coming next week(30:46) Podcast disclosuresResources:Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Follow Hannah Sheldon on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannah-sheldon-311a31130/ Ep #31: Social Security, AI Investing & When Growth Shifts to Protection | https://burneywealth.com/blog/ss-ai-investing-protection-long-story-short-episode-31  #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Social Security going broke? AI stocks too hot to handle? Wondering when you should stop chasing growth and start protecting what you've built?Adam and Andy discuss three questions they're hearing frequently from clients right now. First, they break down what "going broke" actually means for Social Security (it's not as dire as the headlines make it sound). Then they throw cold water on the AI investment frenzy and explain why you're probably already more exposed than you think. Finally, they introduce a framework for thinking about when your portfolio should shift from growth mode to protection mode.⏱️ Timestamps: (1:09) Intro: Three client questions about Social Security, AI, and portfolio protection(1:32) Will Social Security run out of money?(5:25) Three solutions Congress might consider to fix the funding gap(10:38) Should you invest more heavily in AI right now?(17:32) When should protecting wealth become more important than growing it?(20:08) Defining tier one capital: your "don't screw it up" money(22:15) What tier two capital is and how to think about it differently(30:00) Podcast disclosuresResources:Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ #RetirementPlanning #SocialSecurity #InvestmentStrategy #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The quarterly webinar live Q&A session covered the topics clients care about most right now. Adam and Andy spent 30 minutes answering questions on international investing, market volatility, tariffs, Bitcoin, gold, and what to expect in 2026.International stocks dominated the questions. Clients wanted to know how Burney accesses these markets (through funds with on-the-ground analysts), whether the 20-30% allocation still makes sense (yes), and how tariffs affect international performance (April's selloff showed international stocks held up better than U.S. markets).Volatility questions came next, triggered by the week's 2% down day. Andy provided benchmarks: expect dozens of 1-2% down days yearly, one 10% correction per year, and a 20% bear market every four to five years. Volatility isn't a warning sign. It's the cost of stock returns.Bitcoin and gold both came up. Andy explained why crypto remains speculative despite the recent drop from $130,000 to $90,000 (multiple 90% drawdowns in its history). Gold's strong 2025 performance looks tempting, but it still fails portfolio optimization tests.Adam tackled AI investment concerns, noting the strong earnings growth happening outside AI stocks. Tax changes from the Big Beautiful Bill got attention too. The new SALT caps and senior deductions are creating stimulus most people haven't noticed yet.⏱️ Timestamps: (00:35) Introduction to webinar Q&A format(01:35) International investing strategies: Funds vs. individual stocks(04:52) Are developed foreign markets better short-term investments?(06:30) Tariffs and international performance: The April lesson(08:38) Trump's Greenland threats: Distraction or market mover?(10:29) Economic slowdowns in Russia & Iran(11:46) Best way to access international stocks for 2026(14:55) What to make of market volatility(17:24) Yesterday's 2% selloff in perspective(18:52) Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?(20:52) Gold stocks soaring: Should you chase the trend?(24:16) Tax changes in 2026 and market impact(27:56) Why small caps lag large caps(29:39) AI investment slowdown concerns(33:13) First quarter 2026 expectations(35:43) Podcast disclosuresResources:Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Understanding the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): What High Net Worth Families Need to Know | https://burneywealth.com/blog/understanding-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act Have questions you want answered on the podcast? Email longstoryshort@burney.com.#InternationalInvesting #MarketVolatility #TaxPlanning #Bitcoin #WealthManagementThe Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.