Long Story Short The Bond Market as a Crystal Ball and U.S. Tax History
The bond market is bigger than the stock market at $130 trillion globally, and a lot of investors treat it like a fortune teller. Adam and Andy dig into what bond market moves actually signal, why rising yields don't always mean bad news, and how the recent spike tied to oil prices fits into the bigger picture.
Adam walks through a surprisingly consistent story in US tax history. Despite top marginal rates that once hit 90%, effective tax rates have hovered between 20 and 30% for decades. Individual income taxes and payroll taxes fund the overwhelming majority of the federal government, and the estate tax, despite all its political attention, has never broken 5% of federal revenue.
They close with news that Burney's Nashville office is officially open.
⏱️ Timestamps:
(0:55) Intro: Episode 39 and the "smart money" debate
(3:17) The bond market is $130 trillion globally, bigger than stocks
(4:47) What bond investors actually care about: inflation, growth, creditworthiness
(7:36) What rising yields actually signal vs. what people fear they mean
(11:32) Conflicting signals: rising rates have historically been a positive for equities
(13:02) How taxation has changed over decades: estate tax, income tax, payroll tax
(15:38) Individual income taxes and FICA fund the overwhelming majority of federal revenue
(18:48) The effective tax rate has stayed between 20-30% despite dramatic rate changes
(20:18) Nashville office is open
(23:40) Podcast disclosures
Resources:
Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast
Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement
Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/
Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/
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