NAB Morning Call

Thursday 22nd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC minutes this morning didn’t provide many surprises, except warning that inflation could pick up and more evidence was needed. All reasons to delay cuts until, possibly June. Meanwhile, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the ECB has almost committed verbally to a June cut. Now we’re seeing louder voices inside the BoE warning that delaying cuts will have harmful impacts on the economy, which has the potential to also move to a June cut. No such luck with the RBA though. Yesterday’s wage inflation data, even though it came in almost as expected, it’s still too high for the policy makers to feel comfortable.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada’s latest inflation rate came in lower than expected overnight, prompting the inevitable speculation about an earlier cut from the Bank of Canada. April perhaps? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether this means they’ll be the first major central bank to move lower, as others seem to be pushing expectations back a little. Although UK gilt yields dropped after the BoE’s Andrw Bailey said to a government hearing that market expectations for a rate cut this year are not unreasonable. Today Australia’s wage rice index is released. NAB expects it to come in line with RBA forecasts, but we’ll see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tueday 20th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been quieter than quiet the last 24 hours. The US has been off for Presidents Day, and elsewhere only glacial movements in bonds and currencies. Why? Well, as Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton, its because there’s not much in the way of data releases to move markets along, those that are open. On eof the strongest currencies was the New Zealand dollar, that saw a slightly stronger than expected PSI read yesterday. Ahead we have the RBA minutes and Canada’s CPI to look forward to. Beyond that, we’re clutching at straws a bit! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday19th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was some dismissing of the US CPI numbers last week as not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But the producer prices on Friday, which do input into the Fed’s preferred Core PCE number, also showed prices ticking higher in January. Evidence of the bumpy path that the Fed’s Michael Barr was talking about on Thursday, perhaps? But NAB’s Taylor Nugent says, as with the CPI numbers, seasonally adjusting January’s numbers is notoriously difficult. In any case, we won’t see further market reaction in the US today because its Presidents Day holiday. So, a quiet start to a week which includes the latest flash PMIs and Australia’s wage price index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th February 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In the consumer space there are only really two ways tech firms make money. They either sell stuff – usually subscriptions – or they offer free content supported by advertising. Advertising is as old as the hills so you might be mistaken for thinking that its days are numbered. But Debra Aho Williamson, an independent tech analyst from Seattle, says online will continue to grow its share of an expanding global advertising market, and AI will help improve the efficacy of the budget of advertisers. But advertising isn’t the only way forward and each of the major tech firms has their own approach. Listen in to the discussion to help gather your own thoughts on who is in the strongest position right now.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been some surprises in the last 24 hours but it seems none of it will change the dial for central banks. Australia’s unemployment ticked above 4% yesterday, but JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why you have to be cautious about January numbers and why it doesn’t really add to the pressure for the RBA to cut sooner. The latest GDP numbers in the UK, which showed the country has been in recession for the last two quarters, but the BoE was quick to respond on the need to see inflation falling more consistently before they act. Japan also moved into a recession which surely challenges the notion that the BoJ will lift rates. And US retail sales showed the biggest fall in almost a year. So, lots of data, but nothing to change central bank thinking. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCentral banks seem to be sounding a little more dovish, with the exception of the RBA and RBNZ of course. NAB’s Ray Attrill says market expectations are driving away from the higher-than-expected US CPI read, like a speeding car. Hence, bond yields have bounced back today. They rose even further in the UK where inflation came in lower than expected. With GDP numbers later likely to show an economy in recession, can the BoE really hold out much longer? It’s a movable feast, and in the midst of that movement NAB has released the latest FX forecasts, which effectively pushes the growth in the Aussie dollar back a quarter, against a stronger US dollar. But there are a few significant caveats, discussed on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI numbers showed that inflation isn’t coming down as fast as expected. The market reaction was swift as markets repriced their expectations for the timing of rate cuts. Equites fell sharply, bond yields rose as the US dollar gained ground.. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are good reasons not to take too much signal from the January data alone. Perhaps the exercise will be repeated with UK inflation numbers later today although there a small rise is already expected. Today New Zealand’s price indices will give an early indication of inflation, as the market pares back rate hike expectations after the surprising call by (another) major bank this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMaybe not as exciting as the Super Bowl, but the CPI numbers out in the US early tomorrow morning (Australia time) could have a more significant impact on the US economy and the speed of cuts from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the headline rate is expected to start with a 2, instead of a 3, but will it fall faster than expected putting pressure on the Fed to move more quickly. Ahead of all that, we get the NAB Business Survey, the ZEW survey results for Germany and the Eurozone, and employment numbers for the UK. At last, the data calendar is hotting up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTalk about an anti-climax! Markets were on tenterhooks ahead of the revision to US CPI on Friday but, it turns out, there was nothing to see. NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out that the revision was one basis point higher for the three-month average. Now markets can focus on the next CPI print, which is out this week. Friday’s excitement in our region came from one bank’s call for the RBNZ to raise rates in February and April. Michelle Bullock didn’t rule out a rate rise for the RBA when she fronted up to parliament on Friday, but it seems unlikely. It’s a quiet start to the week, with China on holiday for the New Year, but Tapas takes us through some of the data highlights for later in the week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.