NAB Morning Call

Tursday 4th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares have taken a rest for now. Perhaps a $1.8 billion fine on Apple over music streaming has reminded big tech investor that regulators have power. Today, NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact of yesterday’s GDP partials for Australia, much of it driven by mining, with lower inventories and higher corporate profits. The Peoples Congress is underway in China today, with reports suggesting Xi Jinping will confirm that the growth target for 2024 remains at 5 percent. The US releases its PMI Services number today, but the market is really hanging out for Friday’s non-farm payrolls. It’s Super Tuesday in the US today, but we already know who is going to win, for each side of politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Manufacturing ISM was weaker than expected don Friday, with new orders, production and employment all contracting. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether this accounts for a fall in front end yields on Friday and whether its impacted expectations for the timing of the first Fed rate cut. In Europe the latest CPI numbers show inflation is coming down more slowly than expected, ahead of the ECB meeting this week. Could this push back the timing for cuts? It’s a quiet start to a busy week – a week that includes US non-farm payrolls and Services ISM, Australia’s GDP and a House testimony for Jerome Powell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st March 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Kate Griffiths from the Grattan Institute warns that the recent budget surplus is hiding the fact that the long-term balance between Australia’s tax intake and the expectations for government spending don’t stack up. As the population ages and the ratio of those in work reduces, the tax base will narrow whilst demand for aged services will expand. Kate argues the case for a roader tax system, less reliant on income tax as the main source of government revenue. Phil asks hat tax reform should set out to address. Is it just about increasing revenue, or is wealth redistribution just as important? And what about the tax efficiency. How many tax loopholes need to disappear. Then there’s taxes with unintended detrimental consequences. There’s a lot to consider. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were relieved that the US PCE deflators came in in-line with expectations. But, as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, the six-month annualised rate is ticking up a little, hence the desire by th Fed to see more data before committing to rate cuts. Ion a busy episode today we look at European inflation, Australian retail sales, house prices, Canada’s GDP and words from one BoJ governor suggesting the time is right to lift rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded sharply to the RBNZ hold decision yesterday, even though it was largely expected. The tone from the press conference that followed left most assuming there would be no more hikes, even if it’ll take a while for rates to come down. NaAB's Ken Crompton talks through how the markets reacted. He also suggests an above-consensus bounce back in Australian retail numbers today. US core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – is also expected to lift a little, whilst US GDP was revised down ever so slightly. And happy leap day!  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan’s inflation is down, but not quite as much as expected. That’s raised expectation from some that the BoJ will use this as a reason to lift rates. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether they need to. Japanese exports seem to be benefiting from a lower Yen right now. Meanwhile US equities have plateaued. Warren Buffet described it as a casino, suggesting investors focused on stocks that it would be hard to imagine doing without. Like coca cola. Vested interest perhaps? Today the focus is on what the RBNZ does. NAB and BNZ are not expecting a rate rise, but the language at the press conference should be interesting. Inflation is proving troublesome. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTomorrow is looking a lot more interesting than today, with Australian CPI and the RBNZ. Overnight though, we had more talk from the ECB, including a curious comment from the Bank of Greece Governor, seemingly reinforcing the suggestion that June is the month for cutting. Today we see CPI numbers for Japan, but it’s unlikely to influence the timing of any moves by the BoJ, should they ever move. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of that, plus the outcome of bond auctions in the US overnight, with yields pushing a little higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCentral bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wants more persistent evidence that inflationary pressures have dissipated, even though the German economy shank by 0.2 percent last year. And there’s the outside chance that he RBNZ will lift rates this week, although that seems unlikely. Meanwhile Australian CPI and retail sales this week will be waited for with anticipation by the RBA. So, when it comes to rate cuts, it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. Trivia question: who said that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd February 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The US has been enjoying healthy share prices and a market preparing for lower interest rates, with the much-vaunted soft landing. But how much of this good will could disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year? The FT’s Katie Martin says markets haven’t been preparing much just yet because, well, it may not happen. But there’s also the question of how big the gap is between what Trump says he’ll do and what eventuates. Katie suggests corporate America will advise him of the consequences if he were to push ahead with a 55% tariff on all Chinese imports. We can assume he will be far less supportive of green initiatives. We also know he tends to measure economic success by share market performance. The unknown element is his approach to foreign policy. That might mean it'll be time to derisk. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe caution we’ve been seeing in the US share market has dissolved completely since the release of NVIDIA earnings yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the euphoria has even spread as far as Japan. But is too much good news taken by the Fed as another reason to delay rate cuts? You could also question whether the ECB will delay longer than June. The minutes of their last meeting note the risk of cutting too early if greater than the risk of a delay. Today the diary is light, with retail sales for New Zealand the focus. A weak result would surely remove the chance of a hike by the RBNZ next week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.