NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 19th January 2021Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what with the President do today? Reuters is reporting he is withdrawing licences from any companies working with Huawei, is anything else in the offing? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it doesn’t really matter too much what the President does, because it can always be undone in the days that follow. The bigger question is what will Biden’s attitude be to China? There’s also discussion on today’s podcast about yesterday’s GDP numbers for China, expectations for the ECB meeting this week and political unrest in Italy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 18th January 2021Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out in today’s Morning Call, markets questioned the President-Elect’s ability to implement his pandemic relief spending plan while Biden also noted everyone will have to pay their fair share. Soft US data and US banks underperformance didn’t help sentiment either. A safe-haven bid lifted the USD and weighed on longer dated UST yields. Otherwise, the continuance of disturbing infection rates for COVID-19 quell optimism everywhere, with the UK stepping up it’s measures on inbound travellers. There’s also discussion about Australia’s housing market – could prices really rise by 30 percent in the next few years? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th January 2021Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purchases this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend says he indicated the Fed would look through any short-term rise in inflation as a reason to make changes. This has added to a positive market sentiment today, despite a disastrous rise in US jobless claims, up from 784k to 965k in one week. There’s also discussion today on the ECB minutes, German GDP, NAB’s payments data and an exodus from the UK. Today, all eyes will be on what Joe Biden has to say. It’s a busy first week back! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th January 2021An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets, with more focus on the words coming from central bankers. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks about the continued fall in bond yields, as Fed speakers downplay the prospect of tapering of bond purchases later this year, aided by subdued US inflation numbers. All eyes will be on Joe Bidens stimulus plans and how much extra money he plans to pump into the economy. Meanwhile, Aussie job numbers have gone through the roof and Italy's government is on the verge of collapse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th January 2020With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling, ahead of trillions expected in new government debt. On today’s podcast NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the issuance of Treasuries this morning indicates the opposite may be true, with yields falling – the first decline since the beginning of the year. There’s also discussion on the easing of loans in China, the latest tit for tat measures between China and Australia, and what to expect from US inflation numbers tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th January 2020Bond yields continue to rise In the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the President-elect. We’ve seen bond yields hit new highs, as equities start to fall. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether political uncertainty is behind any of these moves, including a fall in equities, admittedly from record highs on Friday. Meanwhile, Aussie retail sales looked strong yesterday, although the US dollar-strength saw the Aussie dollar lose ground. Could tensions with China also be playing into that weakness? Maybe the issue will go away when Donald Trump leaves the White House. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th January 2021The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off in a very different place. The blue-wave wasn’t written in stone, but with control of the Senate the Democrats should find it easier to roll out more substantial stimulus measures, so does that mean the US economy will recover faster? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the response in the bond markets, with Treasury yields rising markedly. But is there a risk that the expectation of a US recovery is overblown – after all COVID numbers continue to rise and there’s still a gargantuan task in rolling out vaccines. Given all that’s been going on, how have NAB’s forecasts changed over the last few weeks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd December 2020You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how sentiment has rapidly switched direction. Investors have tended to look through short term concerns for the optimistic longer-term outlook, when COVID-19 is but a distant memory. But the rise in numbers in the UK and fears of the new strain that spreads faster has led to a sudden realisation that the short-term downside might last longer than expected. Then there’s Brexit – check back next week on that one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st December 2020There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the news will be good for risk assets helping equities recover and reflected in emerging market currencies. It’s a different story in the UK, of course, where the new strain of COVIDS-19 has seen London, large parts of southeast England and Wales moved into lockdown, and many European countries stopping flights from the UK. That’s being compounded with the lack of movement on a post-Brexit deal, but could the turn-for-the-worse on COVID force the UK and EU to reach a deal quickly, to cope with the other matter at hand? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th December 2020The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there will be a deal in both instances, and the markets are priced accordingly. The US fiscal stimulus deal might mean politicians meet over the weekend, whilst UK MPs, already on their Christmas break, could be pulled back after their roast turkeys to sign off on their deal. Central banks have been squeezing in their final meetings of the year – the Bank of England unsurprisingly pessimistic, but the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank, both more upbeat. There’s also discussion on yesterday’s unemployment numbers for Australia, and the mid-year budget update yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.