NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 3rd February 2021All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday. Despite our expectation on yesterday’s podcast that they would taper their QE program, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains how they are extended it by another $100 billion, even though the economy is doing well and the fiscal position is improving. It was a big surprise, he says. In other news, the markets have returned to whatever is normal these days, as the influence of Redditt day traders subsides, for now. There are lots of services PMI numbers today which will give a good indication of how Europe, China, the UK and USA are travelling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd February 2021In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal. Normal today, of course, is a market driven by COVID-19 news, whether it’s the valuation of stay-at-home stocks like Amazon and Apple (both due to report tomorrow), or the latest vaccine rollout news. NAB’s David de Garis says the market is also getting more interested in the inflation story, after a big rise in the prices paid element of the US ISM manufacturing numbers. Today, the RBA meets. The question is, what will they do about QE – will they extend it, and if so, by how much? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st February 2021Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the regulators response is to side with the retail investors, eager to investigate trading freezes by brokerages, like the Robin Hood app. Normally you might have expected Friday to see some positive sentiment in markets, with a strong batch of US data. Two new vaccines have come o the scene too, as the spat between Europe and the UK dies down a little over the distribution of Astra Zeneca doses. Today Scott Morrison will address the Press Club, when he will talk of more fiscal discipline, arguing the government can’t write a blank cheque forever. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th January 2021US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms, like Robin Hood, with investors spurred on by chatter on Reddit. The app has stopped trading on eight of the stocks today, with prices readjusting themselves. Phil Dobie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the new administration in the US could see this as an opportunity for more regulation of the finance sector. This Main Street versus Wall Street battle was certainly more entertaining than the Fed yesterday, with the press conference adding little to what was discussed on yesterday’s podcast. In other news US Q4 GDP figures show the rate of recovery has slowed, whilst NAB consumer spending analysis for last week shows consumption is bouncing back quickly, although it obviously isn’t hitting all sectors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th January 2021The markets have so far been unmoved by the DOFMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little. No move in rates or QE and a reliance on vaccine news before taking further steps, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests the Fed will be on standby to do more if necessary. There has been a bevy of bad news from Europe, with German consumer confidence well down, rising concerns about the impact of a lower US dollar, slow vaccine deployment and now, a feud with the manufacturer over delivery timelines. One ECB member also suggested that the market was underestimating the potential for the bank to lower rates further. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th January 2021The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, markets don’t tend to pay a lot of attention to these numbers. There’s been more interest in the prospect of a stock bubble in China and the question of whether the PBoC will respond. Not too much is expected from the FOMC meeting today, but there is news that the ECB is to take the Euro exchange rate more seriously. They don’t want to see the US dollar keep falling. NAB is expecting inflation to be a little higher than consensus today – we explain why. We also look ahead to the NAB business survey and the US earnings season. And why one stock has been elevated by a woollen helmet for Elon Musk’s dog. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th January 2021Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer than hoped whilst infections are growing. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there were too many bad news stories on Friday to offset the optimism of those looking forward to the sunny uplands of a post-COVID world. There was also mixed news with PMI reads at the end of the week; Europe fared relatively well, the US saw improvements, but the UK was nothing short of a disaster. That’s on top of the news from the UK PM that the new strain is not only more infectious it’s more deadly, with fears that the other new strain (from South Africa) might also be more resistant to vaccines. Ass we said, many bad news stories. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd January 2021The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside. NAB’s Gavin Friend says German bond yields rose as she suggested the full extent of the €1.85 trillion Pandemic bond purchase might not be required, although she also said it might, or there might even be a requirement for more. There’s also discussion on the impact of Joe Biden’s first day in office, and Janet Yellen’s words on China and currency manipulation. Australia jobs numbers didn’t disappoint, and today is PMI day, for the UK, Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st January 2021Former President Donald Trump often remarked about how his administration saw record highs in US equities. If the President has any control over that, Joe Biden can make the same claim, with new highs on the NASDAQ and S&P500 right from his first moment in office. Today we look at the risk-on mood of inauguration day and ask will it last. Could a bad set of weekly employment numbers later on dampen the mood? Plus, rising infection numbers in China, largely ignored by the markets so far. Phil Dobbie also asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what we can expect from employment numbers in Australia today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th January 2021It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US. Lady Gaga will sing the National Anthem before Biden moves into the Oval Office and works his way through his executive orders. Ahead of that, we’ve heard from Janet Yellen, the nominee to be Treasury Secretary who said the administration needs to act big to help those struggling through the COVID crisis. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market reaction to her words. They also look at bank earnings and rising confidence in Germany, as well as looking ahead to the UK’s CPI figures later, plus the Bank of Canada meeting tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.