This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukraine’s favour – and what the spectre of a Trump Presidency would mean for Ukraine’s freedom. We’re proud that Oz, a seasoned reporter, film-maker and podcasters, is joining the TINAD team. He’ll be hosting special editions on Ukraine and other flashpoints around the world at regular intervals. Gavin Esler returns next week.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more.• “The problem is the people watching the war on their screens and not taking account of how it’s happening in reality, on the ground.” – Maria Avdeeva, Ukrainian defence analyst• “The Brits understand this conflict far better than the Americans, for the simple reason that the Brits have a presence embedded on the ground.” – Michael Weiss, The Insider• “Everyone in Ukraine is aware that the war will be long. Ukraine will win. There is no other option. But it won’t be as fast as we were hoping a year ago.” – Maria Avdeeva• “Trump’s first impeachment was over Ukraine and he sees it as an abscess to be lanced… A Trump presidency would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine.” – Michael WeissWritten and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Hamas atrocities of 7th October and Israel’s overwhelming retaliation have plunged the region into its worst chaos in 50 years. How deeply involved was Iran in the Hamas attacks? Did Netanyahu’s political desperation and strategic bungling really open the door to the most anguished day in Israel’s history? And is there a way to end the carnage before it spreads? Gavin Esler looks for answers with author and journalist Kim Ghattas who is based in Beirut – a Hamas stronghold – and Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland, author of The Escape Artist: The Man Who Broke Out of Auschwitz to Warn the World. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more.• “Iran has been using the Palestinian cause as a way to assert itself as a leader in the region for 45 years.” – Kim Ghattas• “Netanyahu needs to be in the Prime Minister’s chair to stay out of prison.” – Jonathan Freedland• “Hamas thought everyone would pitch in after their attacks, but there has been no uprising. In the Arab world you’re starting to hear ‘Iran will fight Israel to the last Arab… or to the last Sunni.’” – Kim Ghattas• “Like most militaries, Israel does not want to see photographs of dead children. To Hamas, photos like those are an asset in the battle for world opinion.” – Jonathan FreedlandWritten and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch, with new host Gavin Esler. In our first episode: It’s one year to the US Presidential election. If Donald Trump is the victor he will be unbound by any fear of legal or democratic restraint. What will Trump do to get there? And what will he do if he wins?Gavin Esler talks to Bill Kristol, editor-at-large of conservative magazine The Bulwark, who has broken with the Republicans in revulsion at the party’s surrender to the MAGA ideal; and historian Sarah Churchwell, author of Behold America: The Entangled History of “America First” and “The American Dream”, to understand the United States’ fateful choice. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. Buy Behold America here and help the podcast via our affiliate links.• “The worst thing is that Trump is succeeding because of the demagoguery, the incitement, the violence and the contempt for the rule of law – not in spite of it.” – Bill Kristol • “Trump is of a kind that we’ve seen before, but of a degree that we’ve never seen before. And he’s achieved power that we’ve never seen before.” – Sarah ChurchwellWritten and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill, the brand new weekly show about geopolitical threats, where they come from and how to fight them. We’re building on the legacy of Doomsday Watch to look even more widely about the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever-more dangerous. And we’ve got a brand-new host: Gavin Esler, former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight. Gavin will be talking to highly experienced diplomats, academics and journalists to guide you through the world’s worsening geopolitics nightmare.New episodes start weekly from Weds 14 Nov 2023 – and two days early for Patreon supporters. Follow now on your favourite app. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, for the second time since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, world leaders met to discuss the challenges facing the NATO security alliance.With two previously isolationist nations, Finland and Sweden, newly joined or about to join - this week’s Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania spoke of a newly energised organisation.But perhaps predictably in an age of war in Europe - there remain tensions and very big questions. The biggest of all - what to do about Ukraine?To discuss what it means for the war in Ukraine; the nature of global security, and the still-dominant role the USA plays in this post-WW2 organisation, Arthur Snell is joined by: - Dr Ulrike Franke: senior fellow at the European Council on foreign relations - John Lough: Chatham House associate fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme and the former NATO man in Moscow - Steven Pifer: former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution.Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assitant Producer Liam Tait. Art by Jim Parrett. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After an astonishing seven days in Russia, Doomsday Watch is back to answer some of the biggest questions following the aborted Wagner rebellion. How will Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived insurrection affect Russia and its war of aggression on Ukraine?Few understand the machinations and manoeuvres of Russian politics like Christopher Steele - former head of the Russia desk at MI6 and the man behind the famous Trump dossier in 2016, which investigated Russia’s links to US politics. The director of consultancy Orbis Business Intelligence joins Arthur Snell to discuss the corruption which rots Russian elite society and drove Prigozhin’s challenge.And speaking from Kyiv - Doomsday Watch regular Dr Jade McGlynn - author of recent books Russia’s War and Memory Makers and researcher at King's College London.Arthur and Jade discuss developments in Ukraine and how Russian society is responding to Vladimir Putin’s attempts to shore up control following the rebellion.  “A lot of this revolves around corrupt wealth, and vast amounts of it.” – Christopher Steele “I suspect that there was a falling out between Prigozhin, Shoigu and others over the spoils of war in Ukraine.” – Christopher Steele “I think a lot of Ukranians are, at the very least, enjoying watching the spiders fight in a jar, as they call it.” – Jade McGlynn Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.ukWritten and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer: Liam Tait. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The slow-motion breakdown of relations between Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s military has now accelerated into a fast-forward coup. Wagner mercenaries have taken control of Rostov - a Russian city which houses the headquarters of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. And now they are marching on Moscow. A worried Putin has made a national TV address and may even be onboard his special plane fleeing the country.Host Arthur Snell spoke to Doomsday Watch favourite Dr Mike Martin, military expert, academic and former soldier, for an emergency podcast on the latest developments."These events effectively are the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine"“Putin will not be the president of Russia in six months’ time”“This is basic 101 on how to run a country - you don’t lose the monopoly of force”Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.ukWritten and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The finale of our history of the Ukraine war – for now. As Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive begins and Putin responds with mere nihilistic destruction, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Now Arthur Snell takes stock of the war so far. Ukraine’s fight for freedom could preserves the security of Europe’s hinterlands, and Russia’s failures have shown how NOT to fight a war. But history tells us that the fall of great powers puts global peace in grave peril. How can we prevent chaos in Russia spilling out across Europe and perhaps beyond?Arthur speaks to:• Serhii Plokhy, Prof of Ukrainian History at Harvard and the Author of ‘The Russo-Ukrainian War’• Luke Harding, journalist and author of Orwell-prize shortlisted ‘Invasion’• Iuliia Osmalenko, former Ukrainian diplomat and Head of Globsec Kyiv Office• Dr Mike Martin, military analyst and author of ‘How to Fight A War’• Oleskii Plotnikov, serving Ukrainian soldier and human rights lawyerGet bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.ukPhotograph: GettyFeaturing poetry by Yuliya Musakovska, read by the author, and by Anastasia Afanasiva, read by translator Olga LivshinIncidental music in order of appearance:• Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony• Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra• ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir• ‘A Quiet Night (Tyhoyi Nochi)' by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA ChoirWritten and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How Putin’s war has reshaped the world. In Ep.7: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the rules-based international order. Now the strongmen are scrambling to take advantage. Arthur Snell looks at vast powerplays of Russian information warfare and Chinese influence across Africa and the developing world. Will China see financing Putin’s faltering Forever War as a good bet? And what is in store for Putin now that there are Russian resistance units active inside Russia itself?Hear the finale of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War right now when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk• “Putin no longer believes he can win on the battlefield to the necessary level. He has to outlast the west. It’s all he’s got.“ – Mark Galeotti• “By targeting fissures in the UK and US and increasing grievances, Russia can keep us polarised and keep us distracted.” – Nina Jankowicz.• “There are centuries of slavery baked inside the Russian psyche. But it doesn’t give Putin an eternal lease on the Russian soul.” – John Sweeney• “Every global problem that we’ve got can be traced back to authoritarians.” – Brian Klaas• “More than ever before the Kremlin needs to divert attention away from the mess that’s unfolding in its own country.” – Arthur Snell• “If the Ukrainians humiliate his killing machine… then Vladimir Putin will leave the Kremlin in a box.” – John SweeneyPhotograph: GettyIncidental music in order of appearance:Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony‘The Blessed I have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir‘Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk MonasteryGustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber ChoirWritten and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.6: How Ukrainian bravery and steadfastness amazed the world. These are the human stories of how a country much smaller than Russia was able to stand together under Putin’s astonishing onslaught – why a shovel is a soldier’s best friend – and how Ukrainian civilians who never thought of themselves as fighters found themselves rushing towards the front line.Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk• “I was terrified of dying a wasteful death… but there was pride too. We’ve learned we’re more united and braver than we thought.” – Romeo Kokriatski• “Ironically it’s Russian’s repeated attacks on Ukraine that propelled this country’s sense of purpose and unity.” – Arthur Snell• “Before August 2022 it was hard to convince anyone that Ukraine could win this. After September I was struggling to convince people that victory wasn’t inevitable.” – Jack Watling• “Hopefully this war makes people around the world understand that freedom is not free.” – Olga TokariukPhotograph courtesy Juan BarretoIncidental music in order of appearance:• ‘A Quiet Night – Tyhohi Nochi’ by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA Choir• ‘O Lord, Hear My Prayer – Dmitry Bortniansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir• Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra• Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony‘A Quiet Night – Tyhohi Nochi’ by Natalia Tsupryk was commissioned and recorded by SANSARA choir at the Ukrainian Cathedral in London, directed by Tom Herring.Hear the full track on SANSARA’s latest album Traces here: https://platoon.lnk.to/tracesFind out more about the project on their website here: https://www.sansarachoir.com/a-quiet-nightFollow SANSARA @SansaraChoir and on your preferred streaming platform.Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices